Paul Zeise: Steelers' standard under Mike Tomlin has been lowered

[Northern_Blitz]

Still wrong.
Hers how it goes.
Team makes selection.
Fans immediately chime in and say great, good, ok, poor, bad…. That type of stuff.
Years later that player is what he is, great, good, ok, poor or bad.
At that point fans have the ability to see if they were correct
What embarrasses most fans is they state how great or good those players are at draft time only to say they are no good when the team is losing.
Hope this helps you understand it.

I think draft picks are like individual stocks (or a box of chocolates).

You never know what you're going to get.

Sometimes you guess right. But I think that's as much luck as it is about skill.

If people were actually good at predicting how good drafted players were, the Mendenhal / Sweed draft would have been great. And while they were both good prospects that many thought would go earlier, it's probably fair to say that neither lived up to the hype (LS in particular).

On the other side of the equation, lots of people thought that the Watt pick was a reach because of his lack of experience. I read a few times that he wouldn't have gone that early if he had a different last name. But looking back, he's about as good as the 1OC pick (Garrett) and they are both edges. I'd say better, but I'm not unbiased. There's only one 1st rounder that I would certainly take over Watt in a redraft that year. And he went 10th OA (and should have gone 1st if scouts had time machines).

[Northern_Blitz]

I think draft picks are like individual stocks (or a box of chocolates).

You never know what you're going to get.

Sometimes you guess right. But I think that's as much luck as it is about skill.

If people were actually good at predicting how good drafted players were, the Mendenhal / Sweed draft would have been great. And while they were both good prospects that many thought would go earlier, it's probably fair to say that neither lived up to the hype (LS in particular).

On the other side of the equation, lots of people thought that the Watt pick was a reach because of his lack of experience. I read a few times that he wouldn't have gone that early if he had a different last name. But looking back, he's about as good as the 1OC pick (Garrett) and they are both edges. I'd say better, but I'm not unbiased. There's only one 1st rounder that I would certainly take over Watt in a redraft that year. And he went 10th OA (and should have gone 1st if scouts had time machines).

I think that's why we need some humility with predictions.

Saying "Tomlin will definitely win another SB" is silly. Just like saying "Tomlin definitely won't win another SB" is also silly.

After the SB loss in GB, who would have guessed that Ben wouldn't be back in the big game. Even though that's would have been the "chalk" prediction.

[Steel Maniac]

I think that's why we need some humility with predictions.

Saying "Tomlin will definitely win another SB" is silly. Just like saying "Tomlin definitely won't win another SB" is also silly.

After the SB loss in GB, who would have guessed that Ben wouldn't be back in the big game. Even though that's would have been the "chalk" prediction.

Here we go.

It’s not silly; it’s true and that’s why it kills people. So you down play it as “silly” to downgrade the person saying it. Very tactical of you.

The purpose of every team, every year is to try and win it all. Now anything contrary to that is a negative to the purpose.

Tomlin can’t win playoff games anymore and theirs 12 years of proof to support that; please see my sig.

So.. having him here is just spinning our wheels. So my now classic saying of,” we will never win another super bowl as long as Tomlin is our coach “ is accurate and on point. Sorry it hurts so much but I for one want this organization to get back the original standards it has.
There is a reason Paul Z wrote this article. He’s right in point with me. Again, sorry that it hurts you but facing the truth allows us to reach a solution faster.

[hawaiiansteel]

Here we go.

It’s not silly; it’s true and that’s why it kills people. So you down play it as “silly” to downgrade the person saying it. Very tactical of you.

The purpose of every team, every year is to try and win it all. Now anything contrary to that is a negative to the purpose.

please see my sig.

Miami was never going to win any more Lombardis with Don Shula, so the solution to that was to get rid of him.

that sure guaranteed success, just look at how many Super Bowls the Dolphins have won since!

stupidest sig ever...

[Northern_Blitz]

Here we go.

It’s not silly; it’s true and that’s why it kills people. So you down play it as “silly” to downgrade the person saying it. Very tactical of you.

The purpose of every team, every year is to try and win it all. Now anything contrary to that is a negative to the purpose.

Tomlin can’t win playoff games anymore and theirs 12 years of proof to support that; please see my sig.

So.. having him here is just spinning our wheels. So my now classic saying of,” we will never win another super bowl as long as Tomlin is our coach “ is accurate and on point. Sorry it hurts so much but I for one want this organization to get back the original standards it has.
There is a reason Paul Z wrote this article. He’s right in point with me. Again, sorry that it hurts you but facing the truth allows us to reach a solution faster.

First: I agree with you that the chalk prediction for Tomlin (and BB, and any HC not currently still playing in the playoffs) is that they won't ever win another SB. It's very unlikely. Same with Tom Brady. Same with Aaron Rodgers. Like I said, it turned out to be true for Ben after the GB SB. People wouldn't have thought it about Wilson after his last appearance either (unless they looked at how rookie contracts breed success).

Second: Making definitive statements about probabilistic outcomes is only done when the speaker wants to look like they have more confidence than they do...or maybe they truly believe that they have more confidence than they do. I believe that both of those things are silly because the speaker is actively trying to deceive the audience, themselves, or both.

It's the way that politicians talk. Because it doesn't generate much faith in the populous when your answer is always "well, it depends....followed by a long winded answer".

The long winded (and more complicated) answer is the "truer" answer. So, people that value truth would probably say it's the "better" answer. This is why I have way more trust in someone I don't know about after I hear a 3 hour interview with them vs. a 3 minute interview. It's super easy to fake anything in 3 minutes when you can just toss out sound bytes and play rope-a-dope until you get saved by the bell (i.e. commercial break).

But people that are chasing influence or political currency aren't interested in truth. They are interested in accumulating "followers". And if you want to look like a fearless and decisive leader, you pretend (or convince yourself) that you are super confident in everything. And you never change you mind, no matter what the evidence says. Sadly, this behavior isn't confined to sports and there are many, many, many important real-world examples of this kind of BS IMO.

Sometimes it takes a while...but hopefully, the people eventually see that the Emperor has no clothes.

[feltdizz]

Still wrong.
Hers how it goes.
Team makes selection.
Fans immediately chime in and say great, good, ok, poor, bad…. That type of stuff.
Years later that player is what he is, great, good, ok, poor or bad.
At that point fans have the ability to see if they were correct
What embarrasses most fans is they state how great or good those players are at draft time only to say they are no good when the team is losing.
Hope this helps you understand it.

Yes, I understand that you are contradicting yourself right now.

So fans say great, good, ok, bad immediately after the pick.

Then in the next sentence you “what embarrasses most fans is they say great/good”

Now.. the issue is the flip flop. You continue to say “most fans” but this board has draft threads with evidence of what people actually said on here.

You are trying to lump everyone into loving every draft pick when the reality is its much more nuanced and we have years of evidence to prove you aren’t being truthful because all you have to do is search drafts by year to see what fans on here actually said about each pick.

I guarantee you that “most fans” didn’t say great or good for each pick.

[Northern_Blitz]

...
The purpose of every team, every year is to try and win it all. ...

I don't believe this.

And I don't think you believe this either.

What do you think the goal of the Steelers should be over the next 13 months?

I think they should prioritize setting the team up for consistent future success vs. trying to maximize their chances of winning the SB next season.

Based on your comments re: QB acquisition, I think you believe the same thing. Right?

[feltdizz]

Here we go.

It’s not silly; it’s true and that’s why it kills people. So you down play it as “silly” to downgrade the person saying it. Very tactical of you.

The purpose of every team, every year is to try and win it all. Now anything contrary to that is a negative to the purpose.

Tomlin can’t win playoff games anymore and theirs 12 years of proof to support that; please see my sig.

So.. having him here is just spinning our wheels. So my now classic saying of,” we will never win another super bowl as long as Tomlin is our coach “ is accurate and on point. Sorry it hurts so much but I for one want this organization to get back the original standards it has.
There is a reason Paul Z wrote this article. He’s right in point with me. Again, sorry that it hurts you but facing the truth allows us to reach a solution faster.

its silly because only 1 team wins every year. Picking the field is the smart prediction 99% of the time.

What makes it even sillier (is that a word?) is bragging about it like you are some genius when we have been holding onto a QB for a but too long BECAUSE HE WENT TO 3 SUPER BOWLS AND WON 2 in his 18 year career. More than Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Rivers, etc…

Yet you think your sig which is ridiculous because Miami hasn’t sniffed a SB since Shula was fired.

Fans don’t hold onto a head coach either.

[Steel Maniac]

I don't believe this.

And I don't think you believe this either.

What do you think the goal of the Steelers should be over the next 13 months?

I think they should prioritize setting the team up for consistent future success vs. trying to maximize their chances of winning the SB next season.

Based on your comments re: QB acquisition, I think you believe the same thing. Right?

The Steelers goal for the next 13 mints should be to upgrade the lines, ILB position , secondary and possibly add a legit #1 WR.

Doesn’t look like any qb is legit coming out the draft so fixing everything else should be a priority.

Were the Steelers actually trying to compete last year ? As long as Tomlin is head coach , thr Steelers are never trying to win a chip. They have overwhelming evidence that he gets out coached in the playoffs. He’s not an X’s and O’s guy and he gets killed in the playoffs by X’s and O’s Coaches.

[feltdizz]

First: I agree with you that the chalk prediction for Tomlin (and BB, and any HC not currently still playing in the playoffs) is that they won't ever win another SB. It's very unlikely. Same with Tom Brady. Same with Aaron Rodgers. Like I said, it turned out to be true for Ben after the GB SB. People wouldn't have thought it about Wilson after his last appearance either (unless they looked at how rookie contracts breed success).

Second: Making definitive statements about probabilistic outcomes is only done when the speaker wants to look like they have more confidence than they do...or maybe they truly believe that they have more confidence than they do. I believe that both of those things are silly because the speaker is actively trying to deceive the audience, themselves, or both.

It's the way that politicians talk. Because it doesn't generate much faith in the populous when your answer is always "well, it depends....followed by a long winded answer".

The long winded (and more complicated) answer is the "truer" answer. So, people that value truth would probably say it's the "better" answer. This is why I have way more trust in someone I don't know about after I hear a 3 hour interview with them vs. a 3 minute interview. It's super easy to fake anything in 3 minutes when you can just toss out sound bytes and play rope-a-dope until you get saved by the bell (i.e. commercial break).

But people that are chasing influence or political currency aren't interested in truth. They are interested in accumulating "followers". And if you want to look like a fearless and decisive leader, you pretend (or convince yourself) that you are super confident in everything. And you never change you mind, no matter what the evidence says. Sadly, this behavior isn't confined to sports and there are many, many, many important real-world examples of this kind of BS IMO.

Sometimes it takes a while...but hopefully, the people eventually see that the Emperor has no clothes.

You know that man aint reading all these words.. lol

[feltdizz]

The Steelers goal for the next 13 mints should be to upgrade the lines, ILB position , secondary and possibly add a legit #1 WR.

Doesn’t look like any qb is legit coming out the draft so fixing everything else should be a priority.

Were the Steelers actually trying to compete last year ? As long as Tomlin is head coach , thr Steelers are never trying to win a chip. They have overwhelming evidence that he gets out coached in the playoffs. He’s not an X’s and O’s guy and he gets killed in the playoffs by X’s and O’s Coaches.

Jags, Texans, Lions, Bears, Phins, Panthers, Deadskins..

yeah, they all made SB plans this preseason.

[hawaiiansteel]

its silly because only 1 team wins every year. Picking the field is the smart prediction 99% of the time.

What makes it even sillier (is that a word?) is bragging about it like you are some genius when we have been holding onto a QB for a but too long BECAUSE HE WENT TO 3 SUPER BOWLS AND WON 2 in his 18 year career. More than Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Rivers, etc…

Yet you think your sig which is ridiculous because Miami hasn’t sniffed a SB since Shula was fired.

and to double down, Steel Maniac states how smart Green Bay was to get rid of their fraud head coach Mike McCarthy.

this is yet another stupid example, LaFleur has arguably the best QB in the NFL to work with and 3 years later still no Super Bowls have been won.

changing head coaches is not a guarantee of success, his Shula and McCarthy examples are just two of many I could cite to prove that. but Steel Maniac is so dense he brings them up himself to try and prove his false narrative and agenda.

[Northern_Blitz]

The Steelers goal for the next 13 mints should be to upgrade the lines, ILB position , secondary and possibly add a legit #1 WR.

Doesn’t look like any qb is legit coming out the draft so fixing everything else should be a priority.

Were the Steelers actually trying to compete last year ? As long as Tomlin is head coach , thr Steelers are never trying to win a chip. They have overwhelming evidence that he gets out coached in the playoffs. He’s not an X’s and O’s guy and he gets killed in the playoffs by X’s and O’s Coaches.

I don't think we were really trying to compete (for a SB) last year. We didn't try to tank (which was something we could have done), but we couldn't have though we had a good shot going into the season (unless everything broke just perfectly).

I think we were trying to not be terrible while giving Ben a nice final season.

Which is why I was pretty critical of some of the moves we made in the offseason. Many of us (I think you too?) thought that the off season was one foot in a rebuild and one foot in trying to be competitive. And I don't think you can really serve two masters.

[flippy]

Here we go.

It’s not silly; it’s true and that’s why it kills people. So you down play it as “silly” to downgrade the person saying it. Very tactical of you.

The purpose of every team, every year is to try and win it all. Now anything contrary to that is a negative to the purpose.

Tomlin can’t win playoff games anymore and theirs 12 years of proof to support that; please see my sig.

So.. having him here is just spinning our wheels. So my now classic saying of,” we will never win another super bowl as long as Tomlin is our coach “ is accurate and on point. Sorry it hurts so much but I for one want this organization to get back the original standards it has.
There is a reason Paul Z wrote this article. He’s right in point with me. Again, sorry that it hurts you but facing the truth allows us to reach a solution faster.

Who’s smarter?

Cicero or Machiavelli?

It’s better to be than to seem…

- or -

It’s better to seem than to be…

It’s the crux to every argument. Everyone thinks their on the righteous side. Truth is we just live in 2 separate algorithms that confirm our righteousness.

…back to winning SuperBowls and being flippant, or should I say Flippy

[Northern_Blitz]

and to double down, Steel Maniac states how smart Green Bay was to get rid of their fraud head coach Mike McCarthy.

this is yet another stupid example, LaFleur has arguably the best QB in the NFL to work with and 3 years later still no Super Bowls have been won.

changing head coaches is not a guarantee of success, his Shula and McCarthy examples are just two of many I could cite to prove that. but Steel Maniac is so dense he brings them up himself to try and prove his false narrative and agenda.

And if his Rams win the SB it will be a counter-example to all of this because they will have won because they changed the QB and not the HC.

Showing (once again) that players are more important than coaches.

I don't expect them to win though. Because I think that Stafford is a ticking timebomb. Maybe he can string together enough wins against good teams though. Eli did it twice.