Why are you even here?

[Captain Lemming]

They were at ~21pts/game after the bye. If, and this is a big if, they can get 4 or so more points/game on top of that, that's real progress. The top 7 or so offenses this past year were at 26+ points/game BUT scoring was way down so it kinda depends where that trend goes too.

To your point, I'm pessimistic at best about their chances to really improve with Canada as the OC but I guess we'll see...

I anticipate a pretty good jump.
I'd feel pretty good at 24-25 per game which I think is doable.

[NorthCoast]

With the offense scoring 18 PPG, and all the same coaches/players back, what do you think is a reasonable increase in PPG? 2? That would bring us to 20 PPG. (That would put us in the AZ and Carolina territories - both non-play off teams.) 3? That would bring us to 21. (That would bring us up to the Browns and Falcons of the NFL, neither play off teams.)

Coincidently, the two teams with the highest PPG were Philly and KC, tied with 28.7 PPG and that happens to be the two teams in the Super Bowl. Other play off teams included Cinci (7th), Bills (3rd), Dallas (4th), SF (6th), MN (8th). In other words, If Cool Shades and Art II think they are gonna contend with anything but a massive degree in an increase in points scored, I got news for them: They are delusional. If you aren't in top 10 in PPG you aren't gonna contend for jack shlt. (More like top 4).

Pgh sits at 26th in PPG. We need to move up by more than 10 spots. Who sees that happening with the same coaching? Go ahead, I'm all ears.

Wait, you are assuming the offense starts over next season at 18PPG??

How about an alternative. They continue to build on where they left off. Using a little math in the trendline, the Steelers end next season at a tick under 27 pts/gm and would be in the mix for the postseason.


Points scored vs Wk:


[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oeAT5g][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oeAT5g]capture[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[Northern_Blitz]

If we fired Tomlin last season, and had the EXACT SAME RECORD, people would have reasonable expectations and have recognized this was a pretty good start of a rebuild.

Don't know if that's true.

What if a brand new coach had a win% of 0.625 in year one and won a SB in year 2?

Would that be good or bad?

Asking for a friend.

[T.Ferguson]

I would suggest their realistic goal is to win as many games as possible every year. I have no reason to think they did otherwise.

Nothing more, nothing less.

When you have a coordinator like Canada returning for a third season and an offensive philosophy that he and Tomlin have your ceiling as a team is kind of set in today's NFL.

[feltdizz]

As crazy as it sounds I really don't think the goal for this team is to compete for a championship at this point. It's to avoid a losing season. It's to be the best team not to make the playoffs. It's to sell tickets. I mean looking at things critically I don't know what other conclusion one can come to.

And I don't want to hear the KP was a rookie excuse, I'm so tired of the excuses and rationalizations when it's clear the issue is the offense itself. I mean this is the same rookie QB who was responsible for two last game winning drives in spite of Canada's offense, none of it computes. The Niners got to the NFCCG with a rookie QB who was the last player taken in the entire draft.

yes, the 49ers roster is more seasoned than ours.

why would we plan to intentionally barely not make the playoffs? That makes no damn sense.

I think the obvious plan is to try and make the playoffs every year and its because we have been in contention for a playoff spot on the final week of the season for 20 consecutive years.

19 consecutive years of competitive teams
12 years in the playoffs
3 SB appearances
4 AFCCG appearances.

I think holding onto players past their expiration date trying to get one more run is to blame for some of our down years.

but there is no way anyone can truly believe we dont want to make the playoffs. If anything trying to be competitive every year is the issue. We have yet to have a true down year with Tomlin and if we really had no desire we would’ve kept Mitch at QB and tanked.

[T.Ferguson]

I think the actual goal of every head coach is to get the most production out of a team that you can given the talent you have on the roster.

This is why I think looking at the raw record, or playoff record (or lack of playoff games) misses a lot of important context. This is also why looking at more than one metric when evaluating a player is important IMO...because all metrics have flaws and looking at a bunch of them hopefully averages out the errors from each flawed measurement.

So to me, the question isn't "what was our record this year" or "how many playoff games did we win", it's "how did the team do vs. realistic expectations". The hard part there IMO is defining realistic expectations.

I think we were certainly below realistic expectations (at least pre-Shazier injury) in the year we lost to the Jags.

I think we were certainly above realistic expectations in the Mason / Duck year.

I think making the playoffs in Ben's last year and just missing the playoffs in the first year of the rebuild were both above expectations. And I think most would come to the same conclusion if we defined "reasonable expectations" as something like "average of pre-season predictions made by informed fans on a message board like the Planet".

Of course we would all rather win the SB ever year. But that's not a realistic expectation (even when you cheat AND have the GOAT QB under center).

I'm most certainly not expecting a SB every year, I don't think anyone is really. I think fans just want a team they believe has a chance at one eventually. Do you really get that vibe from this team? Once again the overall issue I find with Tomlin over the last like 7-8 years is it feels like the team under him isn't really progressing anywhere, it's more like spinning wheels. Nobody except maybe feltdizz feels bringing back Canada is a good move, how much progression is the offense really going to make under him? In some categories the offense actually got worse this season...I know, I know KP was a rookie lol.

[Captain Lemming]

yes, the 49ers roster is more seasoned than ours.

why would we plan to intentionally barely not make the playoffs? That makes no damn sense.

I think the obvious plan is to try and make the playoffs every year and its because we have been in contention for a playoff spot on the final week of the season for 20 consecutive years.

19 consecutive years of competitive teams
12 years in the playoffs
3 SB appearances
4 AFCCG appearances.

I think holding onto players past their expiration date trying to get one more run is to blame for some of our down years.

but there is no way anyone can truly believe we dont want to make the playoffs. If anything trying to be competitive every year is the issue. We have yet to have a true down year with Tomlin and if we really had no desire we would’ve kept Mitch at QB and tanked.

That reminds me. Ben just retired right?
What was Cowhers record the last season he did not have Ben?

[T.Ferguson]

yes, the 49ers roster is more seasoned than ours.

why would we plan to intentionally barely not make the playoffs? That makes no damn sense.

I think the obvious plan is to try and make the playoffs every year and its because we have been in contention for a playoff spot on the final week of the season for 20 consecutive years.

19 consecutive years of competitive teams
12 years in the playoffs
3 SB appearances
4 AFCCG appearances.

I think holding onto players past their expiration date trying to get one more run is to blame for some of our down years.

but there is no way anyone can truly believe we dont want to make the playoffs. If anything trying to be competitive every year is the issue. We have yet to have a true down year with Tomlin and if we really had no desire we wouldÂ’ve kept Mitch at QB and tanked.

Maybe Tomlin believes what he is doing will lead to another championship but I'm starting to think that at this point in his career that he just likes being coach and the money and attention that comes with it, maybe he likes the camaraderie of being with the guys idk. I mean the team has playoff wins in 2 out of the last 12 seasons for goodness sake and from a coaching standpoint Tomlin has basically gone into a shell philosophically, his offense is super risk averse, his defense doesn't have much of an identity and seems to really struggle when 1 or 2 players are out of the lineup or when facing a decent QB.

[feltdizz]

Maybe Tomlin believes what he is doing will lead to another championship but I'm starting to think that at this point in his career that he just likes being coach and the money and attention that comes with it, maybe he likes the camaraderie of being with the guys idk. I mean the team has playoff wins in 2 out of the last 12 seasons for goodness sake and from a coaching standpoint Tomlin has basically gone into a shell philosophically, his offense is super risk averse, his defense doesn't have much of an identity and seems to really struggle when 1 or 2 players are out of the lineup or when facing a decent QB.

I think a better observation is Ben was never the same after his injury.

2020 looked promising until trams realized we couldn’t throw down field effectively.

I know its impossible to do but I suggest fans wait until Kenny has a few seasons before making sweeping generalizations about our philosophy as a team.

I think a lot of anger directed at Tomlin, Canada and Rooney is mostly frustration at seeing our HOFer QB go out without a bang.

Fans wanted an immediate bang out of Mitch and Kenny and instead it was conservative football.

Which is why I kept repeating that folks who claim they wanted to tank for a high draft pick would most certainly use that against Tomlin.

[WindyCitySteel]

As crazy as it sounds I really don't think the goal for this team is to compete for a championship at this point. It's to avoid a losing season. It's to be the best team not to make the playoffs. It's to sell tickets. I mean looking at things critically I don't know what other conclusion one can come to.

And I don't want to hear the KP was a rookie excuse, I'm so tired of the excuses and rationalizations when it's clear the issue is the offense itself. I mean this is the same rookie QB who was responsible for two last game winning drives in spite of Canada's offense, none of it computes. The Niners got to the NFCCG with a rookie QB who was the last player taken in the entire draft.

Exactly, and I don't buy the KP excuse, either. The offense doesn't scheme up any free yards, doesn't use PA, doesn't include hots, it's designed to churn out first downs 3 plays at a time and consume clock to keep the game close.

I also don't buy that we don't have the talent. Najee, DJ, and Muth are all very talented vets. Warren and Pickens were explosive rookies. Get the ball to these guys in space, that shouldn't be considered rocket science to scheme up.

They don't try because I really think the #1 goal on offense is to shorten the game. So frustrating to watch.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

That reminds me. Ben just retired right?
What was Cowhers record the last season he did not have Ben?

Reminds me of one of my favorite clips with Tomlin and Ben standing on the sidelines pregame vs Ravens

Ben: Wow, you're going to TAKE the ball first? They have the baddest defense on the planet
MT: They do... but, I have YOU

[feltdizz]

"But what if the quarterback didn't play clutch at the end of games?"

"Or what if our best player was out even more than 7 games, I bet our record would be worse."

Yeah, ok

basically admitting if Watt played all year we probably win another 2 to 3 games.

Kinda odd to argue that a player on our roster actually playing in games is the reason we won. Even if true, wouldn’t that mean 5 wins was a TERRIBLE prediction and 12 wins were in reach IF Watt played all season like most expected when making their prediction?

Hmmm.. make it make sense.

[feltdizz]

Exactly, and I don't buy the KP excuse, either. The offense doesn't scheme up any free yards, doesn't use PA, doesn't include hots, it's designed to churn out first downs 3 plays at a time and consume clock to keep the game close.

I also don't buy that we don't have the talent. Najee, DJ, and Muth are all very talented vets. Warren and Pickens were explosive rookies. Get the ball to these guys in space, that shouldn't be considered rocket science to scheme up.

They don't try because I really think the #1 goal on offense is to shorten the game. So frustrating to watch.

Kenny was knocked out of a game using play action.. lol.

Maybe they don’t do it more often because Dotson was suspect?

I agree the plan is to shorten the game.

and it worked more often than not.

I don’t expect a high flying offense next year either. It will be a similar offense that runs the ball a ton and controls the clock.

The difference is Pickett is going to get better in the RZ and extend even more drives than he did this year.

and you will be mad when we win games but don’t score more than 30 points because winning isn’t important. Its all about those stats for some people.

[WindyCitySteel]

basically admitting if Watt played all year we probably win another 2 to 3 games.

Kinda odd to argue that a player on our roster actually playing in games is the reason we won. Even if true, wouldn’t that mean 5 wins was a TERRIBLE prediction and 12 wins were in reach IF Watt played all season like most expected when making their prediction?

Hmmm.. make it make sense.

No, it's basically admitting that without one particular OLB, Tomlin is incapable of scheming victory, even against bad teams.

That is what you and others are saying you're OK with.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Maybe Tomlin believes what he is doing will lead to another championship but I'm starting to think that at this point in his career that he just likes being coach and the money and attention that comes with it, maybe he likes the camaraderie of being with the guys idk. I mean the team has playoff wins in 2 out of the last 12 seasons for goodness sake and from a coaching standpoint Tomlin has basically gone into a shell philosophically, his offense is super risk averse, his defense doesn't have much of an identity and seems to really struggle when 1 or 2 players are out of the lineup or when facing a decent QB.

I believe the rumor that he almost retired a couple of seasons back.
I also believe that he didn't want his entire career to be "well, he had Big Ben"... some of us are critical of Belicheck's record without Brady.

With Tomlin, I think once this team is a contender again, he'll take 1-2 shots at it, then call it quits. Given the current status of the team, my gut says he has roughly 3-4 seasons.

IMO, they're a wildcard this upcoming season and return to "contender" status fall 2024 with a new OC.