Why does Willis have a higher ceiling than Pickett?

[Captain Lemming]

There is an interesting narrative about Ceiling. We always say "physically gifted" QBs have a higher ceiling.

Willis supposedly has the lower floor, as he needs to grow as a passer. But with a cannon arm and elite running ability, incredibly high ceiling. He might be trash but might be GREAT.

Kenny is a "safe" pick with a higher floor but a low ceiling. Decent floor or "good" not "great" as his ceiling.

Why.

Nevermind the current GOAT of the position Brady.... he replaced Joe Montana for the GOAT title.

If the GOAT of two different generations not only are not "running" QBs , neither has a cannon arm.

What wins SBs? ACCURACY.

Heck since rocket armed Bradshaw, the only DYNASTIES (at leat 3 championships) this league have been:

The Niners (three of 4 with Montana)
The Cowboy's
And the Pats
(I'm not counting the Redskins as they had different QBs).

Every QB with 3 championships has ACCURACY as their best trait and NONE had a legendary cannon OR was a great runner.

I would suggest we flip the script on ceilings and floors.

Elite running QBs ACTUALLY have a higher FLOOR. How many great running QBs fail to routinely make the playoffs? I would suggest they are MUCH MORE likely to get to a playoff. Heck look at pure TRASH passer Tebow.

But time and time again QBs who's elite trait is running fall short EVEN THOUGH they routinely make the playoffs.

But if you are looking at championships, it is ACCURACY not just a cannon or legs trumps all.

The record does not lie.

Back to my point about Kenny and Malik.

Look at a Willis review and you could change the name to Mike Vick and it would still work. Vick, Kordell, Lamarr.... they all are exciting to watch, highlight machines and WIN plenty.

Look at a Pickett evaluation and you are describing JOE MONTANA. But he might be a Kellen Moore.

I would suggest Pickett has a higher ceiling of the two.

Pickett has the trait that the best QBs of all time have. ACCURACY. That trait is a WEAKNESS of Willis.

Who really has the highest ceiling if championships is the goal?

[WindyCitySteel]

I've been ranting about this for months - QB evaluation has become inverted. Now the "nice to have" off-script once or twice a game "hero ball" attributes are considered the baseline of what any great QB must have, while the absolutely necessary traits of reading defenses, processing, accuracy, and leadership are considered "nice to haves" that can be taught.

It's like drafting a RB who can run a 4.1 in a straight line but can't break tackles, read keys, or hit holes. Home run threat!

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

There is an interesting narrative about Ceiling. We always say "physically gifted" QBs have a higher ceiling.

Willis supposedly has the lower floor, as he needs to grow as a passer. But with a cannon arm and elite running ability, incredibly high ceiling. He might be trash but might be GREAT.

Kenny is a "safe" pick with a higher floor but a low ceiling. Decent floor or "good" not "great" as his ceiling.

Why.

Nevermind the current GOAT of the position Brady.... he replaced Joe Montana for the GOAT title.

If the GOAT of two different generations not only are not "running" QBs , neither has a cannon arm.

What wins SBs? ACCURACY.

Heck since rocket armed Bradshaw, the only DYNASTIES (at leat 3 championships) this league have been:

The Niners (three of 4 with Montana)
The Cowboy's
And the Pats
(I'm not counting the Redskins as they had different QBs).

Every QB with 3 championships has ACCURACY as their best trait and NONE had a legendary cannon OR was a great runner.

I would suggest we flip the script on ceilings and floors.

Elite running QBs ACTUALLY have a higher FLOOR. How many great running QBs fail to routinely make the playoffs? I would suggest they are MUCH MORE likely to get to a playoff. Heck look at pure TRASH passer Tebow.

But time and time again QBs who's elite trait is running fall short EVEN THOUGH they routinely make the playoffs.

But if you are looking at championships, it is ACCURACY not just a cannon or legs trumps all.

The record does not lie.

Back to my point about Kenny and Malik.

Look at a Willis review and you could change the name to Mike Vick and it would still work. Vick, Kordell, Lamarr.... they all are exciting to watch, highlight machines and WIN plenty.

Look at a Pickett evaluation and you are describing JOE MONTANA. But he might be a Kellen Moore.

I would suggest Pickett has a higher ceiling of the two.

Pickett has the trait that the best QBs of all time have. ACCURACY. That trait is a WEAKNESS of Willis.

Who really has the highest ceiling if championships is the goal?

Very nicely put Cap. I'd say that the other common trait between those successful QBs is mental processing. Not only do they make the throw, they routinely choose the right throw to make. I often use the 2017 AFCC as an example of what makes Brady's game. He threw 2 TDs and something like 180 yards to Chris Hogan. Watch a replay of that game and you might not even see a Steeler defender in the picture for most of those catches. You could probably watch 5 more games and not see Hogan catch that in total.

BTW, as to why we always hear about the running QB being the QB of the future? Because when we hear analysis, it is from TV guys, not football guys. Running QBs are more exciting to watch than pocket passers. Going on TV and showing highlights of Lamar Jackson, Mike Vick, Randall Cunningham - running around and through tackle attempts is great excitement. Watching a drop back and 40 yard pass down the sideline is pretty, but not quite as exciting. It is wishful thinking.

[feltdizz]

its because the unknown is more exciting and unpredictable so you can run with it.

Is Willis’ ceiling higher simply because his floor is much lower?

I think it was Shawn who bashed Tomlin for using the floor instead of the ceiling for Pickett. IMO the floor is more important if you are trying to win NOW.

Pickett is NFL ready in our FO’s eyes. This could change in camp but on paper, film and workouts Pickett looks ready.

and i think the same applies to Mitch. People see good things in him because we haven’t seen him in 2 years.. and most probably haven’t seen him at all.

“But he went 2 so that has to mean something right?”

Sure, it means he was overdrafted. It happens. Just remember how many other former first rounders we brought in at QB who never panned out.

Sorry, not sorry but I think people need to slow down on Mitch. I’m sure people think I need to do the same with Pickett but he has yet to play so I have no evidence he wont be the truth.

[Steel Maniac]

I've been ranting about this for months - QB evaluation has become inverted. Now the "nice to have" off-script once or twice a game "hero ball" attributes are considered the baseline of what any great QB must have, while the absolutely necessary traits of reading defenses, processing, accuracy, and leadership are considered "nice to haves" that can be taught.

It's like drafting a RB who can run a 4.1 in a straight line but can't break tackles, read keys, or hit holes. Home run threat!

It's absolute hogwash. Willis has no real upside. He's another version of LJ and LJ is nothing. I'd take Pickett (a qb that can really pass) over any running QB.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I also think that another factor in the high ceiling for Willis and also Trey Lance is their lack of experience, and their having played at a non-power 5 school. Other prospects have already taken reps against the kinds of players who will play on Sundays. How will guys like Willis and Lance adjust to better coaching, better teammates, consistency (Willis only starting 2 years after transferring from Auburn, Lance only 19 total games in 3 years at ND State)?

I always say that guys like this remind me of basketball players who move from other countries (usually in Africa) and just learned the game in their teens. Some become Joel Embiid or Pascal Siakam, others you never hear of. Similarly, it is the same reason I hold out hope for my countryman Claypool. Sub par football experiences through high school, barely saw the field at Notre Dame as a freshman, and improved each year until he put up 1,000 yards as a senior. He has yet to show us why he belongs in the conversation as the future, but he is also probably 5-10 years behind the learning curve compared to most players his age.

[feltdizz]

I also think that another factor in the high ceiling for Willis and also Trey Lance is their lack of experience, and their having played at a non-power 5 school. Other prospects have already taken reps against the kinds of players who will play on Sundays. How will guys like Willis and Lance adjust to better coaching, better teammates, consistency (Willis only starting 2 years after transferring from Auburn, Lance only 19 total games in 3 years at ND State)?

I always say that guys like this remind me of basketball players who move from other countries (usually in Africa) and just learned the game in their teens. Some become Joel Embiid or Pascal Siakam, others you never hear of. Similarly, it is the same reason I hold out hope for my countryman Claypool. Sub par football experiences through high school, barely saw the field at Notre Dame as a freshman, and improved each year until he put up 1,000 yards as a senior. He has yet to show us why he belongs in the conversation as the future, but he is also probably 5-10 years behind the learning curve compared to most players his age.

I think Claypool showed enough his rookie year to have hope for his future. He had a tough second year but it was also his first year playing in NFL stadiums with packed stadiums.

His first year probably felt like a cakewalk. Now he is learning that teams are finding his weaknesses and forcing him to keep working on his craft.

Wouldn’t be surprised if teams know when he is getting the ball based in his stance presnap.

but I also think he rarely had a ball thrown to him in stride last year.

[whisper]

There is an interesting narrative about Ceiling. We always say "physically gifted" QBs have a higher ceiling.

Willis supposedly has the lower floor, as he needs to grow as a passer. But with a cannon arm and elite running ability, incredibly high ceiling. He might be trash but might be GREAT.

Kenny is a "safe" pick with a higher floor but a low ceiling. Decent floor or "good" not "great" as his ceiling.

Why.

Nevermind the current GOAT of the position Brady.... he replaced Joe Montana for the GOAT title.

If the GOAT of two different generations not only are not "running" QBs , neither has a cannon arm.

What wins SBs? ACCURACY.

Heck since rocket armed Bradshaw, the only DYNASTIES (at leat 3 championships) this league have been:

The Niners (three of 4 with Montana)
The Cowboy's
And the Pats
(I'm not counting the Redskins as they had different QBs).

Every QB with 3 championships has ACCURACY as their best trait and NONE had a legendary cannon OR was a great runner.

I would suggest we flip the script on ceilings and floors.

Elite running QBs ACTUALLY have a higher FLOOR. How many great running QBs fail to routinely make the playoffs? I would suggest they are MUCH MORE likely to get to a playoff. Heck look at pure TRASH passer Tebow.

But time and time again QBs who's elite trait is running fall short EVEN THOUGH they routinely make the playoffs.

But if you are looking at championships, it is ACCURACY not just a cannon or legs trumps all.

The record does not lie.

Back to my point about Kenny and Malik.

Look at a Willis review and you could change the name to Mike Vick and it would still work. Vick, Kordell, Lamarr.... they all are exciting to watch, highlight machines and WIN plenty.

Look at a Pickett evaluation and you are describing JOE MONTANA. But he might be a Kellen Moore.

I would suggest Pickett has a higher ceiling of the two.

Pickett has the trait that the best QBs of all time have. ACCURACY. That trait is a WEAKNESS of Willis.

Who really has the highest ceiling if championships is the goal?

I don't know why you chose only QBs to win 3 Super Bowls as "elite." What, Marino isn't elite? Elway wasn't? Russell Wilson isn't? Manning, Favre, Staubach, Rogers?

[feltdizz]

I don't know why you chose only QBs to win 3 Super Bowls as "elite." What, Marino isn't elite? Elway wasn't? Russell Wilson isn't? Manning, Favre, Staubach, Rogers?

its SB’s or scrub with some people on here..

[hawaiiansteel]

Willis has no real upside. He's another version of LJ and LJ is nothing.

you predicted that when he was drafted, Lamar Jackson was going to be a total bust and flop in the NFL.

LJ may have his flaws, but he has already won a NFL MVP award and two AFC North titles with the Ravens. since Jackson took over as the starter midway through the 2018 season, his winning percentage (.755, 37-12 record) ranks only behind that of Patrick Mahomes. and without Jackson, Baltimore is only 2-5 (.286) over the past three seasons.

Lamar is a far cry from being a total bust and flop in the NFL. you turn every thread into a Lamar one because you're not capable of ever admitting how wrong you were about your prediction.

the Titans can only hope that Willis turns out to be as good as LJ.

[Northern_Blitz]

I don't love the projection of a "ceiling" because it's all just guessing and "ceiling" probably doesn't even really have a definition. Or at least it's probably something that's different enough for different people that it doesn't mean all that much.

But I think that some people liked Willis' ceiling more than Pickett's because

1. Pickett played a lot in college and Willis didn't. It's probably not unreasonable to think that guys "level up" faster when they have less experience. So Willis probably has more to learn because he hasn't played the position as long as Pickett.
2. Willis is more athletic (faster, quicker, throws harder), so if he does get to be as good at passing as Pickett, he'll likely be better overall.

I think he probably does have a higher ceiling and I kind of get the idea of drafting for ceiling with QBs because they end up being binary and having a mediocre QB is the same as not having a QB.

But I don't like the argument that drafting Willis is better than drafting Pickett because his ceiling is higher.

I think the "IF" involved with "if he learns to throw as accurately as Pickett" is a huge if. It seems to me that most college QBs fail in the NFL because the game is faster so they need to be more accurate and have better anticipation. To me, it seems like those are the hardest things to scout AND the hardest things for QBs to develop. So hoping they both happen in a case like this seems like not a great bet for a high 1st round pick to me...and I'm very glad that we didn't trade up for MW (or KP) as was predicted by many talking heads.

[feltdizz]

It's absolute hogwash. Willis has no real upside. He's another version of LJ and LJ is nothing. I'd take Pickett (a qb that can really pass) over any running QB.

LJ is nothing? You sound like a kid throwing a tantrum when you say that.

[Captain Lemming]

I don't know why you chose only QBs to win 3 Super Bowls as "elite." What, Marino isn't elite? Elway wasn't? Russell Wilson isn't? Manning, Favre, Staubach, Rogers?

I did not say they were the only elite QBs. Just the most successful, when it comes to championships.

When I said "elite" it was used to describe certain traits. I did it to make clear what I was talking about in describing QBs that win championships, versus runners.

SINCE BRADSHAW THE MOST SUCCESSFUL WINNERS ALL HAD ONE COMMON ELITE TRAIT.

All three have ELITE ACCURACY.

NONE OF THE THREE have elite physical gifts either leg or arm talent.

My point is WHY ARE WE ARTIFICIALLY CREATING A CEIILING FOR PICKETT WHEN THE MOST SUCCESSFUL QBs of the last 40 years have lack those very same athletic traits?

I also referred to running QBs as elite- Elite runners.

QBs whose best trait is ELITE RUNNING FOR YARDS HAVE ZERO RINGS.

[Captain Lemming]

1. Pickett played a lot in college and Willis didn't. It's probably not unreasonable to think that guys "level up" faster when they have less experience. So Willis probably has more to learn because he hasn't played the position as long as Pickett.
2. Willis is more athletic (faster, quicker, throws harder), so if he does get to be as good at passing as Pickett, he'll likely be better overall.

I think he probably does have a higher ceiling and I kind of get the idea of drafting for ceiling with QBs because they end up being binary and having a mediocre QB is the same as not having a QB.

Again I will use this to emphasize my point. The 3 most successful QBs of the last 40 years are massively inferior to Willis by the "faster quicker stronger" metric. They are AVERAGE at best in arm talent and Brady is slow.

They are elite in their ACCURACY.

Brady, Aikman, and Montana, have the same trait.

So why are we limiting Pickett who has the CLOSEST THING TO THEIR SKILL SET as having a lower ceiling because he can't run like a gazelle or possess a rocket launcher arm?

[Bawb the Revelator]

Comparing GOATs is comparing Tomlin to Walsh and Bellichik. Do you really want that?