Najee Harris' Run Game

[crushedspirit]

RBs do not usually have long careers, their rate of injury is very high, and there always is more supply than demand, (this season has tested that though).

I read an article in April pertaining to RBs and their low rate of return when that second contract, and sometimes third contract is signed. Highest paid RBs in the last 10 years; they had a 67% chance as a top-10 rusher in year 2, and a 69% in year 3, (right before that second contract). In years 5-8 those players fall to a 40% chance, and beyond year 8 only AP has finished top-10.

Just look at current guys like McCaffrey, Zeke, and Kamara. Top 3 in average salaries who can't stay on the field consistently this season. Those teams are not getting the value from what they paid. There's a reason why teams pay more for WRs, and even some TEs. There's not much value in paying RBs big money, even when taking in account on the odd chance that you find someone like AP. Might as well use them as much as you can.

[feltdizz]

RBs do not usually have long careers, their rate of injury is very high, and there always is more supply than demand, (this season has tested that though).

I read an article in April pertaining to RBs and their low rate of return when that second contract, and sometimes third contract is signed. Highest paid RBs in the last 10 years; they had a 67% chance as a top-10 rusher in year 2, and a 69% in year 3, (right before that second contract). In years 5-8 those players fall to a 40% chance, and beyond year 8 only AP has finished top-10.

Just look at current guys like McCaffrey, Zeke, and Kamara. Top 3 in average salaries who can't stay on the field consistently this season. Those teams are not getting the value from what they paid. There's a reason why teams pay more for WRs, and even some TEs. There's not much value in paying RBs big money, even when taking in account on the odd chance that you find someone like AP. Might as well use them as much as you can.

I also think there is a bit of “business decisions” when it comes to missing games once you get that big contract.

A lot of players these days tend to sit at any sign of injury or pain once they secure the bag.

There are rumblings in Charlotte because McCaffrey has missed a ton of games and his injuries aren’t even contact related. I think he bulked up to prove he could run between the tackles and the extra weight has caused hammie and high ankle sprain injuries.

[Northern_Blitz]

I also think there is a bit of “business decisions” when it comes to missing games once you get that big contract.

A lot of players these days tend to sit at any sign of injury or pain once they secure the bag.

There are rumblings in Charlotte because McCaffrey has missed a ton of games and his injuries aren’t even contact related. I think he bulked up to prove he could run between the tackles and the extra weight has caused hammie and high ankle sprain injuries.

Or just most rbs his age that get his work load miss a bunch of time because the body can't sustain it in today's NFL as the guys hitting them keep getting bigger, stronger, and faster.

[WindyCitySteel]

they should play as many as possible unless they are winded..

QB plays 100%, so do safeties, CB’s and OL..

we are 6-1 when Watt plays at least 84% of the snaps. Why would I ever want him to play less than that when he is making $30 mill a season?

Your lack of understanding of the physical demands of the various positions is something. Maybe the Steelers defense would be rags by the end of every season if the DL had a better rotation.

[WindyCitySteel]

Najee is a punisher. He delivers force instead of taking it.

I'm admittedly not up on the news, but when did Newton's 3rd law get repealed?

["BuzzNuter"]

I'm admittedly not up on the news, but when did Newton's 3rd law get repealed?

They didn't. F=MA. He who accelerates the fastest can overcome the more massive object. That's what I meant when I said Najee has no recoil. He accelerates through impact delivering more force than he potentially could receive if he recoiled for impact.

Do you remember when we had Mendenhall. We drafted him in the 1st round. It was the 1st time we played the Ravens his 1st year.
He had the ball ,I don't remember the situation. He was head to head with Ray Lewis. Mendenhall stops and awaits or recoiled from the Ray Ray hit. Lewis devastated him and blew out his shoulder. Mendenhall was soft and all his M with no A was awaiting Lewis' MA which dislocated his shoulder.

[NorthCoast]

Limiting touches wouldn't limit risk? Lol. Yes, you can get injured on any play, but there are injuries from overuse, too. Google the curse of 400 touches. RBs rarely make it back from that many. And if you can get hurt on any play, the more plays you are in the more chance you have to get hurt.

Putting all the risk into one guy at the position that takes the most beating is just not smart. Balance the risk in the playcalling and the backfield. No rule saying you're only allowed to have one competent back on the roster.

Good example with Watt. They let Dupree walk and traded away their best depth player, so when their basket of eggs fell, they all broke.

Apparently you weren't in on this discussion; post #32 http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums...+back+injuries

[crushedspirit]

The one problem I have with his current usage is that he's being forced to run behind a porous line, and has no room to operate, which means he's taking much more punishment than he has to. It's one thing to feed a RB as he adds up the yardage, it's another to ask him to run into a wall just about every time. At this rate, he won't even last up to his second contract.

His 1.7 yds before contact per attempt is amongst the worst. The only other RB who has over 200 attempts that has similar walls to face is Gibson from the WFT. Najee's 13.8 attempts per broken tackle doesn't help his cause as well. Javonte has 5.5 attempts per broken tackle, while Stevenson has 7.3. Those two were drafted later on.

[feltdizz]

Your lack of understanding of the physical demands of the various positions is something. Maybe the Steelers defense would be rags by the end of every season if the DL had a better rotation.

maybe the OL would be better if we rotated more players too?

I have no issue with giving a player a break when they are winded.

Najee doesn’t play 100% of the snaps.

But this idea that he needs a lighter workload to save him from injury is untrue. There is no way to limit a players chances of injury unless he is deactivated.

[feltdizz]

Or just most rbs his age that get his work load miss a bunch of time because the body can't sustain it in today's NFL as the guys hitting them keep getting bigger, stronger, and faster.

or… not.

Northcoast provided data on touches vs injuries.

Not sure if there is a cut off for age vs touches vs injuries.

However, I definitely wonder if there is data on huge guaranteed contracts and games missed. I wouldn’t be surprised if players “gut it out” when on there first contract and “ shut it down” once they secure the bag.

[Buzz]

Interesting article from a few years back about correlation between heavy workload and loss of effectiveness with NFL running backs:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1271412-why-and-when-do-nfl-running-backs-start-to-decline

Basically, studies back then showed that a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season would usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year. Even more likely if they got into the playoffs and got up to 390. Don't know if statistics in the past decade has continued to fall in line with this.

[NJ-STEELER]

Jonathan Taylor makes me sad. 41st pick in the draft and can take over games like that. I know he has the far better line, but Najee simply doesn't have that breakaway gear in his game. His longest career run at Alabama on that stacked team with pro OLs was only 42 yards, and it came last season.
.

the bigger problem here in steeler fan land is the thought of not drafting him "because yinz got conners back there".
the idea that we can try to upgrade on every position on the defense but let things play out on the offensive side of the ball is nuts

[hackjam]

the bigger problem here in steeler fan land is the thought of not drafting him "because yinz got conners back there".
the idea that we can try to upgrade on every position on the defense but let things play out on the offensive side of the ball is nuts

Yet they've used 3 of their past 4 picks in the first three rounds (and 4 of the last 7, and 7 of the last 11) on the offensive side of the ball...

[Northern_Blitz]

or… not.

Northcoast provided data on touches vs injuries.

Not sure if there is a cut off for age vs touches vs injuries.

However, I definitely wonder if there is data on huge guaranteed contracts and games missed. I wouldn’t be surprised if players “gut it out” when on there first contract and “ shut it down” once they secure the bag.

That's not what that data says IMO.

The comment I was responding to said that they thought Najee would have a career as long as 8 years. I wonder who the last RB was who was still in the top 5 guys in their 8th year in the league.

I think you said the comp was AP.

I think the fact that guys like Gore and AP are the last guys I can think of who were successful with long careers suggests that guys can't really do it anymore. I think it's because the impacts are getting bigger and bigger. But I could be wrong and there's another reason.

And before anyone points to Henry, compare his rookie usage to Najee's. After this season, I think it will be interesting to see how many years it took for Henry to get as many touches as Najee will have by the end of this year? It will be close to 2.5 years I think.

Henry did have massive touches in 2019 and 2020. And broke in 2021. We'll see what he looks like when he comes back.

[crushedspirit]

Henry was not used much until year 3, and even then he only had 215 carries. I don't see Najee with anything close to having an 8 year career at his current usage rate, and with the hits he's taking.