I think you're right that he really had little idea if the call would be successful or not.
But I think moving forward (and maybe even before that), challenging PI should be treated like challenging the spot of a ball. You're basically always going to lose unless there is absolutely no way that the original call was super blatantly wrong. For PI, that probably means something like no contact at all (or in the case of NO last year, huge contact with no call).
Bottom line is that challenging penalties is a stupid idea and should be scrapped (so is challenging for penalties).
But I think moving forward (and maybe even before that), challenging PI should be treated like challenging the spot of a ball. You're basically always going to lose unless there is absolutely no way that the original call was super blatantly wrong. For PI, that probably means something like no contact at all (or in the case of NO last year, huge contact with no call).
Bottom line is that challenging penalties is a stupid idea and should be scrapped (so is challenging for penalties).

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