Chadman's Offseason Prognosis Thread...

[Discipline of Steel]

might be totally perception, but, isn't JPP smallish for DE in a 34? Seems more like a hybrid (34OLB/43DE).

Exactly. Fits the trend toward more athletic players as we purportedly will be utilizing the 43 on a more regular basis.

[Slapstick]

JPP got franchise tagged...

The Giants did release Mathias Kiwanuka...but, with his knee, his chances don't look good for a productive NFL future...

[Shawn]

Chadman, I will disagree with you a bit on safety. If Shamarko starts, he is a box safety. I must believe the reason he isn't sniffing the field is mental errors in coverage. Thomas is fierce in the box but not so much in coverage.

[Chadman]

Chadman, I will disagree with you a bit on safety. If Shamarko starts, he is a box safety. I must believe the reason he isn't sniffing the field is mental errors in coverage. Thomas is fierce in the box but not so much in coverage.

And yet he was used in the slot in his first season.

There is no reason to believe the Steelers won't give the guy they traded up for a good shot.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I think that where I am at this point as well, although the team may go with a true BPA pick from left field and take an OT or something.

Agreed. I did a mock and hate it .... cuz i ended up with BPA as a DLineman (Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State)... If Collins and all the CBs and all the un-risky OLBs are gone, WTH do you do.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Haven't gotten that far into my theories yet, but the Steelers do tend to look for big program guys, juniors, athletic & they tend to look at guys that are #1 or #2 for their position.

This might be a different year though, if they are serious about a CB. They might be looking at the #3 or #4 CB, and that might be 'good enough' if it ticks the other boxes. I like Kevin Johnson from Wake Forest, but I'm not sold on his level of competition fitting the Steelers criteria. The CB from LSU might be a better overall fit. I'm also not sure they will be looking for a 'game changing CB'- most Steelers CB's of late have been solid, safe types. Zone coverage, good size, good tacklers.

I think the Steelers will tip their hat slightly in FA. If they make a FA plunge on an OLB, look for a CB early. If they sign a CB, look for an OLB.

Option 3 might be Maxx Williams, or an OT/OG type to either shift Beachum, or replace Foster.

I don't think they will look at a Safety. I think they have the future SS in Thomas already.

I pretty much agree with all your other takes. Even down to the kid from Wake Forest, who i think will surprise in the NFL.. But, I'm hoping to see a true BPA where we all say, "they took a WR?" or some random position that we don't expect.

My only reservation in all this would be Maxx (just haven't seen him play, but, hope he's Heath all over again).

[SteelerOfDeVille]

FWIW, I think you've done such a solid job (and this year, beat me to the punch) that I didn't even bother with a DeVille Does De-Offseason thread. Only problem is, I need a mock... Think I'll make a "post your mock" here thread

[RuthlessBurgher]

With free agency opening soon, I suspect we will try to make one "splash" type signing (probably one of the available pass rushers, if possible, since there are more options on the market than impact corners...unless they totally throw us off and go after someone completely out of left field like Mike Iupati), but here are a few other guys that I could see us being interested in an effort to go into the draft without any glaring holes so we can go with a BPA approach (some of these guys have been discussed here a bunch already, some not):

RB Roy Helu
TE Virgil Green
OLB O'Brien Schofield
CB Davon House
S Da'Norris Searcy

[Chadman]

I'm going to go on record and suggest that the signing of DeAngelo Williams removes RB from the potential draft choices. They might still look to add an UDFA RB at some point, but I'd be VERY surprised if they draft any at this point.

[Chadman]

A quick look at the history of draft choices (#1's for now) in the Tomlin/Colbert era..

2007- LB Lawrence Timmons Florida St
2008- RB Rashard Mendenhall Illinois
2009- DE Ziggy Hood Missouri
2010- OC Maurkice Pouncey Florida
2011- DE Cameron Heyward Ohio St
2012- OG David DeCastro Stanford
2013- OLB Jarvis Jones Georgia
2014- LB Ryan Shazier Ohio St

So, what can we learn from the 1st round picks? Firstly, outside of 2014, we see that the Steelers like to alternate Offense & Defense picks each year. That said, with 2014's pick of Shazier, we shifted away from that pattern, and might do again, as the Steelers have been more successful finding long term Offensive players in later rounds than Defensive players. BUT...it could well be that the FO tries to balance out it's top tier Offense & Defense picks again & look for a player fitting an 'eventual need', say at TE or even LG where we are starting to see age (Miller/Speath) become a factor or potential skill upgrade (Foster) available.

Secondly, look at the schools these players come from. Big 10, Big 12, SEC types- all of them. The FO clearly likes to find players that perform at high levels against the best opposition. No small school projects found here.

Thirdly, position. Take another look. How many front 7 Defensive or O-Line players compared to "skill positions"? Let me do the math for you- 7 "unskilled" vs 1 "skilled" position. That's a big leaning toward the trenches right there. It's not to say the Steelers won't pick a "skill position" (WR, CB, S, TE, RB..) just that it's more likely they'll look for a LB, or OL type.

Another thing to consider is that the Steelers are not afraid to draft Juniors early. Timmons, Mendenhall, Heyward (from memory) & Shazier were all juniors coming into the draft. And also (from memory), nearly every player drafted was 'young', 23 at most. The Steelers seem to like the younger players. Could just be personal choice, but it could also be something to do with getting extra Pro years out of their career- not privvy to that, but it seems a fair guess.

The last thing to keep in mind is that the Steelers rarely trade up or down in the 1st Round, and tend to take what they consider to be "best value" picks for them. I'd ammend that theory to say "best value in a position in need of upgrade in the near future".

That wraps up my 1st Round Draft pick history..

[SS Laser]

This might help your thread Chadman: [URL]http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2015-nfl-mock-drafts-profiles-video-clips-highlights-steelers/2015/3/6/8157281/2015-nfl-draft-steelers-prospects-meeting-list[/URL]

[Chadman]

This might help your thread Chadman: [URL]http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2015-nfl-mock-drafts-profiles-video-clips-highlights-steelers/2015/3/6/8157281/2015-nfl-draft-steelers-prospects-meeting-list[/URL]

that is very helpful! Thank you..

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I'm going to go on record and suggest that the signing of DeAngelo Williams removes RB from the potential draft choices. They might still look to add an UDFA RB at some point, but I'd be VERY surprised if they draft any at this point.

at one point, i thought "as early as second round". With the addition of DeAngelo, while I don't expect one, if someone slides a round or two below where they should be taken, i could see a 4th round or later BPA

[K Train]

Id say they still look for one in the 5-7 range....Karlos Williams, David Cobb, Josh Robinson, ect...

[Shawn]

I would disagree. This is a deep running back draft. If they have a running back as the BPA they will make a move anywhere from 3-7. I suspect they have their eyes on Yelton, Johnson and the guy from Michigan State.