Chadman's Offseason Prognosis Thread...

[squidkid]

Tony Romo.

wasn't drafted

[Northern_Blitz]

its an interesting discussion.

im with squid on this one. this pipedream of drafting some developmental QB and him magically being able to step in and play at a championship level when Ben retires is foolish.

eddies QB plan goes like this: ride Ben til his body breaks down. have a veteran back up that has game experience and can step in for a 2-4 games if needed. after that forget it. 3rd string? who cares, your team isnt winning anything at that point anyways. maybe pluck someones practice squad at the end of the year if its someone you liked coming out.

then look for your next #1 high in the draft. in our case, 3-4 years from now

Yep...who knows, maybe if your QB gets hurt early enough you can get Andrew Luck.

[RuthlessBurgher]

besides brady, name a late round qb that sat and learned for years behind the starter and became a 'well above the line" player?

Mark Brunell, Rich Gannon, and Matt Hasselbeck were all certainly "well above the line" NFL starters, considering where they were selected.

Brad Johnson, Kyle Orton, and Marc Bulger may not be "above the line" necessarily, but still were value picks who were at least average starters for portions of their careers.

Tony Romo and Kurt Warner weren't drafted, but should still count as guys who didn't cost a premium pick but still developed into quality starters in this league.

[squidkid]

Mark Brunell, Rich Gannon, and Matt Hasselbeck were all certainly "well above the line" NFL starters, considering where they were selected.

Brad Johnson, Kyle Orton, and Marc Bulger may not be "above the line" necessarily, but still were value picks who were at least average starters for portions of their careers.

Tony Romo and Kurt Warner weren't drafted, but should still count as guys who didn't cost a premium pick but still developed into quality starters in this league.

i'm not sure what point you are trying to make.
i asked for players that were drafted late, sat and learned and then became above the line players.
you give me brunnell, gannon and hasselback. 2 of those 3 sat for a year and were off to another team where they were then thrown into the starting gig. gannon has been out of the league for 10 years, not exactly todays nfl that requires a top qb to win.
i agree that those mediocre qbs may have been value picks, but that wasnt part of the topic
the last 2 werent drafted. i said not to waste draft picks on a qb. so they are part of the discussion either.
imo, you may find a needle in the haystack with a late pick, but chances are your franchise qb will come in the first round or 2. im not ready to waste a 1st rounder on a qb that will sit for 4-5 years until ben is done.

[Chadman]

Next position to look at is the FB/TE position (which we will combine due to no real 'need' for a full time FB on any NFL roster these days).

The Steelers have been well served by Heath Miller for a decade, but I think most agree we are starting to see signs of age creeping in. He is backed up by Matt Speath, a terrific run blocker, but an iceberg when it comes to movement. Michael Palmer has been on the roster for 2 seasons now & finally got some gametime last season (dropping a TD..tut tut). Rob Branchflower sat on the Practice Squad last season, but showed some ability in Training Camp. At FB, Will Johnson continues to play at a good level, possibly not being used as much as he possibly could in many ways.

The Steelers have already added athletic Michael Agnew to the roster for next season- a receiver more than a blocker, but certainly a physical specimen at 6-5 260lbs, and only 25 years old suggests there is room to learn & improve in him still.

Matt Speath & Michael Palmer are both UFA, while Will Johnson is a RFA.

I would suggest it is unlikely the Steelers would part ways with Will Johnson, as they seem quite happy with his performances so far. Also, he played more of a H-Back role last season, offering more versatility. I'm not sure why he hasn't been asked to fill the 3rd TE role, which I'm going to assume he could do at least as well as Michael Palmer did.

The Steelers might leave Speath & Palmer hanging until after the draft, as both are replaceable parts. Speath is clearly more valuable, but not exactly a high commodity type player.

I highly doubt any TE will be brought in through FA, but there is certainly room to draft one, perhaps even with a high pick, in this years draft to be groomed to replace Miller.

If Branchflower can prove some ability to block, he could make Speath expendable, and leave the 3rd TE spot to be fought out between a rookie, Agnew & as I suggested, possibly Johnson.

While there could be some personel changes here, TE & FB are probably "positions of strength" if the right moves are made.

[SteelerMaine83]

I think Blanchflower and/or Egnew will be able to step up as young guys and fill at least one vacant TE slot. Given the choice between Spaeth and Palmer, I'd keep Spaeth because his blocking this year was (at times) spectacular, and Heath really fell off in that area this year. Johnson should stick, and be used a little more. Unless Maxx Williams falls to them, I'd be more a fan of waiting to see who of the James-Huermann-Koyack-Kroft drops to Rd. 4 or 5. One will drop.

I think BU RB can be easily filled at an affordable price--with Helu (my 1st choice) or a similar back. For RB challengers, I'd add Terris Grigsby-Jones as an UDFA that might be a good practice squad guy to develop. Archer should become the 3rd RB, 5th WR, RS guy.

I'd bring in a QB from the late rounds 6-UDFA to compete with Jones--Heinicke and Lovelocke come to mind. Always like to see competition at those slots that are replaceable.

[feltdizz]

i'm not sure what point you are trying to make.
i asked for players that were drafted late, sat and learned and then became above the line players.
you give me brunnell, gannon and hasselback. 2 of those 3 sat for a year and were off to another team where they were then thrown into the starting gig. gannon has been out of the league for 10 years, not exactly todays nfl that requires a top qb to win.
i agree that those mediocre qbs may have been value picks, but that wasnt part of the topic
the last 2 werent drafted. i said not to waste draft picks on a qb. so they are part of the discussion either.
imo, you may find a needle in the haystack with a late pick, but chances are your franchise qb will come in the first round or 2. im not ready to waste a 1st rounder on a qb that will sit for 4-5 years until ben is done.

it's rare to see you post about football without taking a shot at Tomlin...

I actually agree with you on this one. Uh-oh...lol.

[papillon]

besides brady, name a late round qb that sat and learned for years behind the starter and became a 'well above the line" player?

First things first, I never mentioned a late round pick, it could be a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick and because it rarely happens isn't any reason not to try it. I think they tried with Jones and up to this point it appears to be a failure. On the other hand, hoping to find Luck, Marino, Manning, etc in the draft is just as crazy and to draft that guy you would have to be no better than 4-12, the Steelers have never been 4-12 or worse (I think 6-10 is the worst that I can remember). If a Quarterback falls to the 2nd or 3rd that they believe has the skills but needs the reps I don't see any reason not to take that player and give him a chance to learn. Yea, it didn't work with Jones, so just give up? What if a Wilson or Kaepernik is sitting there in the 3rd, that isn't worth the risk? Both of those players are doing okay, granted they have great teams around them, but that was one of the options I suggested.

There may not be many, but there a couple of examples of quarterbacks developing that weren't selected in the 1st round after sitting for at least a year. There are also a lot of these type draft picks: Ryan Leaf, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Vince Young, David Carr, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Druckenmiller, Mike Vick, Joey Harrington, etc. The difference is that when these 1st round picks fail it sets the team back more than one year, because they were drafted so high they continue to get the benefit of the doubt. We may not like the fact that Jones isn't panning out, but at least he wasn't drafted in the 1st round and according to Polian or some other scout, Jones was the most NFL ready quarterback in that draft.

Taking a quarterback in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th is less risky and less damaging if it doesn't work, than over drafting a quarterback because you are in dire need of one. The Steelers may be able to avoid drafting a quarterback because Ben ran out of gas if they can find one that they believe can develop. I liked Jones (even had him mocked where the Steelers grabbed him), he just hasn't worked out, while there is some downside to it, nothing like missing in the 1st.

Dan Fouts, 3rd round I think, not sure if he sat or not, but he ended up pretty good.
Mark Rypien was drafted late and had a pretty good career with the Skins. He fit the mold of being drafted late, having a good team around him and being successful.
Danny white, 2nd or 3rd round, not sure of career path, but a good career.
I don't remember Randall Cunningham's career path, but he was a 2nd or 3rd rounder (I think).
Boomer Esiason, 2nd or 3rd round, I believe, not a bad career, not sure of his career path either.
Steve Grogan was taken pretty late, not a bad career, definitely not great either.

Pappy

[Slapstick]

I don't know if I would lump all of those "bad QBs" together...

Chad Pennington threw 104 TDs vs. 64 INTs and had four playoff appearances...while Jim Druckenmiller appeared in 6 total games and threw 1 TD vs. 4 INTs....big difference...

[papillon]

I don't know if I would lump all of those "bad QBs" together...

Chad Pennington threw 104 TDs vs. 64 INTs and had four playoff appearances...while Jim Druckenmiller appeared in 6 total games and threw 1 TD vs. 4 INTs....big difference...

Both 1st round picks, I'll give you Pennington as not a complete bust, but he was pretty close, there were 3 or 4 decent years, the others IIRC he struggled with injuries. I'm pretty sure that the team that drafted Druckenmiller in the 1st wishes they hadn't.

Pappy

[Shawn]

its an interesting discussion.

im with squid on this one. this pipedream of drafting some developmental QB and him magically being able to step in and play at a championship level when Ben retires is foolish.

eddies QB plan goes like this: ride Ben til his body breaks down. have a veteran back up that has game experience and can step in for a 2-4 games if needed. after that forget it. 3rd string? who cares, your team isnt winning anything at that point anyways. maybe pluck someones practice squad at the end of the year if its someone you liked coming out.

then look for your next #1 high in the draft. in our case, 3-4 years from now

This is a terrific plan. Throw a rookie to the wolves. It's worked well for teams like the Jags.

[papillon]

its an interesting discussion.

im with squid on this one. this pipedream of drafting some developmental QB and him magically being able to step in and play at a championship level when Ben retires is foolish.

eddies QB plan goes like this: ride Ben til his body breaks down. have a veteran back up that has game experience and can step in for a 2-4 games if needed. after that forget it. 3rd string? who cares, your team isnt winning anything at that point anyways. maybe pluck someones practice squad at the end of the year if its someone you liked coming out.

then look for your next #1 high in the draft. in our case, 3-4 years from now

The Steelers don't draft high enough in the draft to get a top ranked quarterback, since 1970 (44 years), the Steelers have two 5 win seasons: 1970 & 1988, four 6 win seasons (not counting the strike year when they were 6-3): 1971, 1986, 1999 & 2003, the probability based on the past 44 years of the Steelers drafting in the top 10 is slim, they put a good product on the field year after year and compete. I still think their best bet is to find someone they like in rounds 2,3 or 4 in one of the next 3 drafts and start preparing him to take over. Jones was probably too early and as it turns out (apparently) he wasn't that good.

Pappy

[Chadman]

Next up we will look at WR.

Going into the season the Steelers have Antonio Brown, Marcus Wheaton, Martavious Bryant & Lance Moore under contract. They also have Tim Benford, Brelan Chancellor, CJ Goodwin & L'Damien Washington on future contracts as well.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is an UDFA, Jimmy Young & Juamorris Stewart are RFA's.

Realistically, Brown, Wheaton & Bryant are locks to be on the roster next season.

Lance Moore is as close to a cap casualty as you can find.

Heyward-Bey could be re-signed to a small contract if the Steelers want a vet at #4.

Of the Future Contract guys, CJ Goodwin is the forum favourite to make the roster (or be the closest to making the roster) as a potential #4 WR. Realistically, that #4 WR will be a competition spot of little overall consequence. Special teams might seal the deal there.

I would not be surprised to see Dri Archer used more often as a WR next season, holding down that #5 WR spot.

This is arguably the strongest position for the Steelers. There might be some argument to sign a FA vet, but certainly nobody that will shatter the salary cap. And if they draft a WR, it won't be until at the earliest, mid-rounds.

[Chadman]

Rounding out the Offense is the O-Line.

Under contract, the Steelers have all players from last season returning- Maurkice Pouncey, Cody Wallace, David DeCastro, Ramon Foster, Chris Hubbard, Mike Adams, Marcus Gilbert & Kelvin Beachum. On top of that, Practice Squad OT Alejandro Villenueva & Mitchell Van Dyk are also under contract.

I expect that instead of drafting an OT "high", the Steelers will give Villenueva a strong shot at earning a roster spot this season. They seemed quite high on him, taking him on road games with the team. It could be a matter of Villenueva vs Hubbard/Adams for that last OL roster spot.

No doubt the Steelers will look to add some rookies, late picks or UDFA's to compete but likely end up on the Practice Squad.

This is a young, good group.

I would be very surprised to see much addition made to this group this off-season.

[Discipline of Steel]

Dont you mean TE Villanueva?