Chadman's 2013 Off-Season Analysis Thread...

[RuthlessBurgher]

Ike Taylor turns 33 this offseason. Our future at CB should be in the hands of Keenan and Cortez. Sacrificing an ascending young player in order to keep an aging veteran would not be in our best interest.

[NW Steeler]

If cutting Ike saves $6mil on the cap, I actually could see him getting cut. You could be right Ruthless, it may be time to turn the page on several of these guys. Its a scary proposition, but change usually is.

[Oviedo]

Ike Taylor turns 33 this offseason. Our future at CB should be in the hands of Keenan and Cortez. Sacrificing an ascending young player in order to keep an aging veteran would not be in our best interest.

$$$$$ that is how we got into the cap mess we find ourseleves in now. We have always defaulted to the "devil that we know" versus giving up and coming young guys the chance to prove they belong.

This is the year to turn the page on the stars of the past decade and find the stars of the next decade.

[Chadman]

I think that the Steelers can't go through another Colon restructuring - which sounds like a medical procedure that would be almost as painful as watching him get paid to stand on the sidelines for one more year. Everybody is talking about only saving $1M+ by releasing him, but why spend anything more to watch him sit out? It also gets you out from the remainder of his contract instead of tying yourself through 2015 with a restructure. Not to mention that we can cut him after June 1 and save the full $5.5M this year, and take the remaining $4M dead cap hit next year when the cap rises.

As for Harrison, he has already stated that he would be willing to restructure to stay. Now, for many contracts that would simply mean pushing salary into bonus to lower the cap hit, but I think that Harrison understands that he would require a reduction as a restructure. I think that he is embarrassed by his results the last two seasons and would take less - say $2.5M - to show that he is still the player he was. That leaves one more year afterwards if the Steelers retain him beyond 2013. That would pare $4M off of the cap. This puts us $1.4M ahead of where you predicted, and takes us out from under the behemoth that is the Colon contract.

Beyond that, the number one target has to be Keenan Lewis. He will receive an unusual type of offer (as far as the Steelers go) with a huge amount up front in SB. I would expect something in the neighborhood of 5 years, $40M, with around $16M in SB. With a first year salary around $800K, and a pro-rated SB hit of $3.2M, that gives him a manageable cap hit of $4M in 2013.

I don't think they can take a run at Starks as he won't be a one year contract anymore. They have to put their kids in position to play at some point and this will be the year.

Agree with alot of what you say there. Cutting Colon is a tough one. Is he overpriced? Yeah, sure... most likely. Thing is, cutting Colon means another spot to fill on the roster, but only saving just over a million. (Unless after June 1- then yes, a much bigger saving). The other thing to keep in mind with Colon is, if you cut him, the Steelers almost are forced to try & sign Foster, who would cost what? $1.5m a year? $2? More than the savings on Colon- that's for sure. If Colon, Starks & Foster are cut from the roster- the OL is almost too young, and do we really believe the Steelers will put all their eggs in Kelvin Beachum's basket just yet?

The Cap situation might almost dictate that Colon 'needs' to stay, in order to get some value from his roster spot in 2013.

James Harrison might very well 'do a Hampton' & take a paycut. That would just about be ideal, giving Worilds one more season to work his way into a starting role. Alot will depend on the Steelers desire to get younger, but Harrison, like Troy, might be one of those guys that you just have to hold on to.

Unless a major cut- Harrison, Taylor, Polamalu, Clark or even... gulp... Heath Miller happens, Chadman can't see how Lewis can be afforded. The FA market is pretty bare, and Lewis will be one of the more marquee signings available. The Steelers can't compete with that. How ruthless is the Steelers FO prepared to be?

Pretty much resigned to saying goodbye to Starks..

[Chadman]

This is a no brainer...young up and coming DB or an aging DB? You sign Lewis. If you need to cut a DB, you cut Ike.

But will the Steelers do that? Ike is still a productive starter on this team- not the sort of player the Steelers generally part with. And the deflated FA market will mean Lewis will be a high priority for teams- raising his contract cost. Is he worth overpaying?

[Chadman]

Everything hinges on whether they sign Lewis. I doubt they would keep both Taylor and Lewis so we'll have to see.
If they keep Ike and let Lewis go or the other way aound we'll need a replacement at CB. Victorian, Brown, and Van Dyke are all projects and neither one is dependable to think they can step in.
Xavier Rhodes is better than all three of them, he's big, physical, and can cover something we'll need with an average D-line and the potential loss of Harrison.

As shawn pointed out if its a choice between Ike and Lewis, go with the younger guy, but even then we'll still need a reliable backup.

The Steelers haven't really shown a tendancy to draft high round CB's or WR's- all the recent additions have been 3rd round or lower. Could the Steelers view Victorian like a young Willie Gay?

[Chadman]

Ike Taylor turns 33 this offseason. Our future at CB should be in the hands of Keenan and Cortez. Sacrificing an ascending young player in order to keep an aging veteran would not be in our best interest.

This is really on the money. The more Chadman looks at it, the more Ike looks like the 'easier' loss to the roster. The question has to be though- to what value can you pay Lewis? Is he a top line CB deserving top line money? Someone might just offer him that- given the strength of the market...

[Chadman]

If cutting Ike saves $6mil on the cap, I actually could see him getting cut. You could be right Ruthless, it may be time to turn the page on several of these guys. Its a scary proposition, but change usually is.

And Bill Cowher said himself that the Steelers rarely panic, and big changes are not always the answer. He must know the inner workings of the Steelers- how they do business. Is that throw-away comment from Cowher really more of an indication of what we should expect?

[Chadman]

$$$$$ that is how we got into the cap mess we find ourseleves in now. We have always defaulted to the "devil that we know" versus giving up and coming young guys the chance to prove they belong.

This is the year to turn the page on the stars of the past decade and find the stars of the next decade.

Chadman would be inclined to agree with you to a point- except that it's incredibly hard to find too many of these young guys that never got a shot with the Steelers suddenly developing into starting players at other teams.

The transition from an old roster to a young roster is not THAT far from complete.

Ike, Troy, Clark, Harrison, Keisel, Miller, Ben & Colon are (if Chadman has this right), the only guys under contract over 30 years old going into 2013. And of that group- not all of them are guarenteed to be Steelers next season.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

The Cap situation might almost dictate that Colon 'needs' to stay, in order to get some value from his roster spot in 2013.

I hear what you are saying, but I'm going more on the theory that you get zero value out of a guy who is on the sidelines. It would be different if teams were credited cap space of IR players, but any player on the IR - and Colon has delivered a grand total of 12 games in the last 48 with no playoff appearances - is wasted space.

[steelz09]

Agree with alot of what you say there. Cutting Colon is a tough one. Is he overpriced? Yeah, sure... most likely. Thing is, cutting Colon means another spot to fill on the roster, but only saving just over a million. (Unless after June 1- then yes, a much bigger saving). The other thing to keep in mind with Colon is, if you cut him, the Steelers almost are forced to try & sign Foster, who would cost what? $1.5m a year? $2? More than the savings on Colon- that's for sure. If Colon, Starks & Foster are cut from the roster- the OL is almost too young, and do we really believe the Steelers will put all their eggs in Kelvin Beachum's basket just yet?

The Cap situation might almost dictate that Colon 'needs' to stay, in order to get some value from his roster spot in 2013.

James Harrison might very well 'do a Hampton' & take a paycut. That would just about be ideal, giving Worilds one more season to work his way into a starting role. Alot will depend on the Steelers desire to get younger, but Harrison, like Troy, might be one of those guys that you just have to hold on to.

Unless a major cut- Harrison, Taylor, Polamalu, Clark or even... gulp... Heath Miller happens, Chadman can't see how Lewis can be afforded. The FA market is pretty bare, and Lewis will be one of the more marquee signings available. The Steelers can't compete with that. How ruthless is the Steelers FO prepared to be?

Pretty much resigned to saying goodbye to Starks..

Colon needs to be cut even if it saves just 1.5. Enough is enough already with that guy. Cut your loses and move on. If nothing else, it opens up a roster spot for a future player such as a draft pick and/or UDFA..

[Shawn]

But will the Steelers do that? Ike is still a productive starter on this team- not the sort of player the Steelers generally part with. And the deflated FA market will mean Lewis will be a high priority for teams- raising his contract cost. Is he worth overpaying?

I would disagree, Ike is exactly the type of player the Steelers part with...aging...best playing days behind him. I have never known the Steelers to let a young very talented player walk to sign a guy who is 33 years old. Now the Steelers have been known to re-sign a guy like Ike to a lower old guy cap friendly retire in the Burgh contract.

[steelz09]

Here is what I think we should do...

Say goodybe to the following players....

1) Foote
2) Hampton
3) Mendenhall
4) Wallace
5) David Johnson
6) Colon

Restructure Ben's contract, Woodley's and Timmons.

Try to get Harrison to sign a Hampton-like paycut and play 1 more year. He is still one of our best defensive players when healthy but he probably has 1 really good year left in him.

Do what you can to keep Clark and Polamalu for at least 1 more year. Clark probably has a year left. I don't see Polamalu "hanging on" to long when he recognizes his career is about over. I think he and the Steelers know that his playing days are winding down but not over. He will be 32 by the start of next season.

Try to get Ike to take a paycut.

If Harrison won't take a paycut... you cut him.

If Ike won't take a paycut... you cut him.

I would make every effort to sign Foster and Starks to a cap friendly deal. People think Max is old because he's been on this team forever. He JUST turned 31 and he was one of our most consistent offensive player (not just o-lineman). Who knows what Foster is asking for. Legursky is a very valuable backup especially at center... especially with Pouncey's ankle issues.

The Steelers can NOT sacrifice the future of this team by hanging onto players that have 1 or MAYBE 2 years left. That means, you cut Ike if it means signing Lewis.

[Slapstick]

While Foster and Starks have been consistent and (mostly) durable players, they may not fit the new blocking schemes that Bicknell will install...

If they don't fit, allow them to find a place elsewhere...

[steelz09]

While Foster and Starks have been consistent and (mostly) durable players, they may not fit the new blocking schemes that Bicknell will install...

If they don't fit, allow them to find a place elsewhere...

Even though I might not agree with it... I could see the Steelers signing Foster for relatively cheap compared to Starks. The primary reason is the position... Foster has been backup that has played decent because of injuries. Starks on the other hand is a starter in this league and he plays the most expensive position on the o-line: LT

For financial reasons, they might sign Foster to a cap-friendly deal and let Starks walk. They invested high picks in both Gilbert and Adams. The Steelers obviously planned them to be starters and that could spell the end for Starks in Pittsburgh. Depth is a whole seperate issue. You don't draft a 2nd rounder (i.e. Gilberts/Adams) for depth. You also don't keep Starks for depth (to expensive and he's starter material).

I'm really hoping they draft a 1st or 2nd round ILB with intentions of him starting from day 1 to replace Foote. It's obvious replacing Foote was the Steelers plan last year when they all but said Hightower was going to be the pick but they couldn't pass on DD.

I could see ILB, S and WR as being the selection in the first three rounds (no particular order). I would like to see us replace Mike Wallace with DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson. I would also like to see us draft Kevin Minter to replace Larry Foote.

As far as safety goes... I like the kid from South Carolina.