Kaleb Johnson

[feltdizz]

It's like having a spouse who you kind of hate but staying because you know what you're getting versus moving on and giving yourself the opportunity to find something better. A couple of attempts may fall flat, but if you don't move on, better is never in the cards.

but if you don’t find someone better…

I know a few people who regret moving on because their spouse had some flaws and they thought they could do better.

[feltdizz]

Warren+Johnson can be better than Najee+Warren even if Johnson is just a push or slight decrease.

Particularly if we're thinking about value.

And it's still unclear what "better" means to people who are making the argument that Johnson has to be "better" than Najee for the decision to be a good one.

Without defining what "better" means, it will be impossible to revisit the comment and evaluate whether it was right or not.

its simple, if Warren and Johnson aren’t more productive than Warren and Najee it was the wrong move.

[WindyCitySteel]

As Felt already stated, if you are not getting better at the position then it was a bad move to let Najee walk & draft another RB....read the sracasm line after i posted.....

No, if you can replace a guy who would have cost $8-10M per with a rookie, it’s a win.

[WindyCitySteel]

If Najee is medicore ( which i don't neccesarily disagreee with), then a 3rd round RB should be able to match that mediocrity. I wasn't against drafting a RB, but i felt Najee's fifth year option was cheap enough to keep him around another year. Since Najee's slowness & vision were his biggest weaknesses i would have thought we would have drafted someone faster with great vision like RJ Harvey. To me it seems we just used a draft pick to pretty much stay the same. Hopefully i'm wrong.

Kaleb has great vision and much better breakaway speed than Najee.

https://247sports.com/longformarticle/travis-hunter-isaiah-bond-headline-10-fastest-players-in-college-football-so-far-236409312/#2491811

[WindyCitySteel]

its simple, if Warren and Johnson aren’t more productive than Warren and Najee it was the wrong move.

So if Warren gets hurt and Kaleb runs for 1500 he was a bad pick? Or if the defense puts them in a hole more often than not and they have to pass more than last year?

Need context.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I'd like to believe you , but all the tape i saw on Johnson were crater sized holes. Looked like Iowa OL is pretty good to me.

Riddle me this. Why is Johnson's 6.4 yard per rush significantly higher than the Ohio State's backs, and most others backs who had a better OL ( follow the drafted players ) and way more space to run with dangerous WR's which help to prevent stacked boxes?

I think Ryan Day is excellent as an offensive mind so...

Johnson is big ten battle tested, super productive in the 5-15 yard range, and may have the best vision and instincts, which should not be confused with pure athletes in college backs in the 2025 draft!

https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...e/stat/rushing

[LPMAN]

No, if you can replace a guy who would have cost $8-10M per with a rookie, it’s a win.

You can replace everybody with a rookie if you want to. Just cut all the vets

[LPMAN]

Warren+Johnson can be better than Najee+Warren even if Johnson is just a push or slight decrease.

Particularly if we're thinking about value.

And it's still unclear what "better" means to people who are making the argument that Johnson has to be "better" than Najee for the decision to be a good one.

Without defining what "better" means, it will be impossible to revisit the comment and evaluate whether it was right or not.

I would think better means, hitting the whole quicker, & getting some splash breakaway runs without losing Najees good characteristics of durbaility rarely missing time & rarely fumbling.

[feltdizz]

So if Warren gets hurt and Kaleb runs for 1500 he was a bad pick? Or if the defense puts them in a hole more often than not and they have to pass more than last year?

Need context.

Well that would obviously be better if he rushed for 1500 due to Warren being hurt so I’m not sure what your point is with that example.

Now if we get put in holes and abandon the run how is that any different than games the last few years where that happened with Najee and Warren?

[feltdizz]

No, if you can replace a guy who would have cost $8-10M per with a rookie, it’s a win.

only if the rookie is as good or better. If the rookie struggles in pass protection or is inconsistent its not a win.

and $8 mill for a known quantity is not a lot of money in the NFL in 2025.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I would think better means, hitting the whole quicker, & getting some splash breakaway runs without losing Najees good characteristics of durbaility rarely missing time & rarely fumbling.

Johnson's vision, fowling blockers and an understanding of plays ( once the rookie learns the play book ) far exceed Harris. And he lost zero fumbles last year and does little " dancing " in the pocket. He was super durable in college.

He looks a bit quicker than Harris who never ran an official 40 , 10 yard split, or shuttle too. Hmmm....

By my eye Harris was a 4.6 guy. And he was a locker room lawyer. Good riddance to this low YPR and YPC guy.

[hackjam]

but if you don’t find someone better…

I know a few people who regret moving on because their spouse had some flaws and they thought they could do better.

Well yeah, fair point. You have to learn and grow from each phase of it, especially the failures. If you have your Issac Redman/Jonathan Dwyer phase, learn from it, and go out and get a Le'veon Bell, the process is working. If you're just rolling out a constant stream of Jonathan Dwyers for a decade, yeah there's a bigger problem.

[hackjam]

Johnson's vision, fowling blockers and an understanding of plays ( once the rookie learns the play book ) far exceed Harris. And he lost zero fumbles last year and does little " dancing " in the pocket. He was super durable in college.

He looks a bit quicker than Harris who never ran an official 40 , 10 yard split, or shuttle too. Hmmm....

By my eye Harris was a 4.6 guy. And he was a locker room lawyer. Good riddance to this low YPR and YPC guy.

His test numbers are pretty close to Bell's. Now, Bell lost 20-30lb before year 2 in the league when he broke out, so Bell at his best was probably a good deal quicker than he was at the combine. The most impressive thing to me about Bell was it seemed like he could go from zero to full speed in about three steps. It was let the play develop, make his decision, and hit the hole.

[Northern_Blitz]

its simple, if Warren and Johnson aren’t more productive than Warren and Najee it was the wrong move.

What does "productive" mean to you?

Total yards? Yards per carry? TDs? Success rate? Receptions? Receiving TDs? Explosive plays?

Maybe EPA per play? Or maybe total EPA for the two of them combined vs. Warren and Najee?

And should we compare vs. Najee last year, or Najee this year?

My guess is that no matter what happens, you won't be happy with it. Because we all tend to want to confirm our biases.

[Northern_Blitz]

only if the rookie is as good or better. If the rookie struggles in pass protection or is inconsistent its not a win.

and $8 mill for a known quantity is not a lot of money in the NFL in 2025.

Warren will likely be our pass pro back. He was better than Najee at this (and Najee was good). He'll also be better than the rookie (rookies usually struggle at pass pro).

Regardless of what you think of Najee, the rest of the NFL all thought $8MM was way too much to pay him. Instead he signed a $5.25MM contract with a bunch of incentives. And since they drafted a RB in the first, he's extremely unlikely to hit the "unlikely to earned" bonuses. And he might even miss the "likely to be earned ones" if he gets a number of carries similar to the Chargers RB2 last year.