Kaleb Johnson

[WindyCitySteel]

only if the rookie is as good or better. If the rookie struggles in pass protection or is inconsistent its not a win.

and $8 mill for a known quantity is not a lot of money in the NFL in 2025.

Was Najee consistent? Had 3 100-yd games, 6 with < 50, 8 in between.

Anyway, I think we’re going to see Kaleb as a big upgrade as he is a natural fit for the ZBS Smith wants to run.

[Northern_Blitz]

its simple, if Warren and Johnson aren’t more productive than Warren and Najee it was the wrong move.

So would it be fair to assume that you'd think it would be a good move if Johnson had something like 400 additional total yards, 10 additional TDs, and increased yards per attempt by about a yard? Let's say that extra production comes at the expense of three more turnovers.

[Northern_Blitz]

Was Najee consistent? Had 3 100-yd games, 6 with < 50, 8 in between.

Anyway, I think we’re going to see Kaleb as a big upgrade as he is a natural fit for the ZBS Smith wants to run.

FWIW, I think Najee was super-consistent.

Results were right on the cusp of average. Per carry. Per game. etc. Same YPC every year. Very close to the same succ% every year. YPC almost the same after his rookie year (where he was significantly over-used IMO). Season hardage totals almost the same every year except his first year (again way more carries).

But he was consistently healthy. So he consistently got lots of carries. Which drove his yardage totals.

[NorthCoast]

FWIW, I think Najee was super-consistent.

Results were right on the cusp of average. Per carry. Per game. etc. Same YPC every year. Very close to the same succ% every year. YPC almost the same after his rookie year (where he was significantly over-used IMO). Season hardage totals almost the same every year except his first year (again way more carries).

But he was consistently healthy. So he consistently got lots of carries. Which drove his yardage totals.

Consistent but unspectacular probably because Smith couldn't run the offense he really wanted to run. Players dictate the scheme.

[feltdizz]

Consistent but unspectacular probably because Smith couldn't run the offense he really wanted to run. Players dictate the scheme.

small sample size but Smith’s issue in Atlanta was misusing talent.

Bijon Robinson had 900 yards and 4 TD’s in 2024 and once Smith left Robinson had 1500 yards and 14 TD’s in 2024.

[WindyCitySteel]

FWIW, I think Najee was super-consistent.

Results were right on the cusp of average. Per carry. Per game. etc. Same YPC every year. Very close to the same succ% every year. YPC almost the same after his rookie year (where he was significantly over-used IMO). Season hardage totals almost the same every year except his first year (again way more carries).

But he was consistently healthy. So he consistently got lots of carries. Which drove his yardage totals.

If you average out the numbers, every single player in NFL history was consistent.

[WindyCitySteel]

small sample size but Smith’s issue in Atlanta was misusing talent.

Bijon Robinson had 900 yards and 4 TD’s in 2024 and once Smith left Robinson had 1500 yards and 14 TD’s in 2024.

It’s not unusual to lighten the load of rookie backs, especially in a league that is seeing more RBBC than ever before. He had 272 touches that year. Derrick Henry didn’t come close to that number until he surpassed it in 2019, his 4th season, ironically with Smith as OC. De’Andre Swift finally surpassed it last year, his 5th season.

Jahmyr Gibbs had 234 touches as a rookie. Jonathan Taylor 268. Josh Jacobs 262. Mixon 208. Kyren Williams barely used as a rookie.

[NorthCoast]

It’s not unusual to lighten the load of rookie backs, especially in a league that is seeing more RBBC than ever before. He had 272 touches that year. Derrick Henry didn’t come close to that number until he surpassed it in 2019, his 4th season, ironically with Smith as OC. De’Andre Swift finally surpassed it last year, his 5th season.

Jahmyr Gibbs had 234 touches as a rookie. Jonathan Taylor 268. Josh Jacobs 262. Mixon 208. Kyren Williams barely used as a rookie.

Spot on ....

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

What does "productive" mean to you?

Total yards? Yards per carry? TDs? Success rate? Receptions? Receiving TDs? Explosive plays?

Maybe EPA per play? Or maybe total EPA for the two of them combined vs. Warren and Najee?

And should we compare vs. Najee last year, or Najee this year?

My guess is that no matter what happens, you won't be happy with it. Because we all tend to want to confirm our biases.

IMO productive is tough to measure in numbers, although everybody will use them. If the OL gels this year and opens up holes, the RB group will put up better numbers than last season. If they play like garbage, the numbers will reflect. Football is always about the eyeball test, very subjective but IMO true. We will see some runs and think to ourselves that Najee would have had a different result on that run, and in our own eyes we'll either remember him moving a pile for 16 yards or going down on first contact behind the line. Both of those things happened and our own perspective will decide which Najee we remember.....so this discussion is unlikely to be solved unless the results we see are extreme, one way or the other.

[Northern_Blitz]

If you average out the numbers, every single player in NFL history was consistent.

But this is a think with Najee.

The problem is that most guys are "inconsistent" because they sometimes have huge plays. That's not Najee.

[Northern_Blitz]

IMO productive is tough to measure in numbers, although everybody will use them. If the OL gels this year and opens up holes, the RB group will put up better numbers than last season. If they play like garbage, the numbers will reflect. Football is always about the eyeball test, very subjective but IMO true. We will see some runs and think to ourselves that Najee would have had a different result on that run, and in our own eyes we'll either remember him moving a pile for 16 yards or going down on first contact behind the line. Both of those things happened and our own perspective will decide which Najee we remember.....so this discussion is unlikely to be solved unless the results we see are extreme, one way or the other.

I don't disagree necessarily*.

But with this kind of definition, it will let anyone complain about the move no matter what happens.

If the running game gets a lot better, then it will be because the line was better and we would have done even more better with Najee.

And if the running game does worse, it will be because we moved on from Najee.

Ultimately, if the production is approximately the same I think that's a clear win for not using the option. It costs less to do what we did. And it meant that we didn't have to take the risk of it being a total disaster with Najee getting hurt late in the year and then missing the entire option year season (since options are guaranteed 2 years in the future...which is something the Steelers very rarely do).

My guess is that Felt will say that moving on from Pickett last year was a bad decision because we didn't win a playoff game. But by his "production" metric, Wilson outproduced Kenny's last year in essentially every category. Even though Kenny started an extra game.

But "production" can mean anything. So there's still some argument somewhere that will let someone who was biased toward keeping Kenny to argue that we should have kept Kenny.

* This is also why I (and I'm pretty sure you) would always prefer to spend money / draft capital on the OL and churn RBs. Except maybe if we had an elite back (and even then I didn't want to keep Bell).

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

But with this kind of definition, it will let anyone complain about the move no matter what happens.

Uh huh. I can't believe I have to say this to you NB but.....welcome to the internet.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

His test numbers are pretty close to Bell's. Now, Bell lost 20-30lb before year 2 in the league when he broke out, so Bell at his best was probably a good deal quicker than he was at the combine. The most impressive thing to me about Bell was it seemed like he could go from zero to full speed in about three steps. It was let the play develop, make his decision, and hit the hole.

Bell for a 3 year period was a very good back who ran behind a good OL. He had great vision, a stutter step which he uses to freeze the defense, and hit his top speed quickly.

BUT he was a sully DIVA who flopped in the playoffs.

[feltdizz]

I don't disagree necessarily*.

But with this kind of definition, it will let anyone complain about the move no matter what happens.

If the running game gets a lot better, then it will be because the line was better and we would have done even more better with Najee.

And if the running game does worse, it will be because we moved on from Najee.

Ultimately, if the production is approximately the same I think that's a clear win for not using the option. It costs less to do what we did. And it meant that we didn't have to take the risk of it being a total disaster with Najee getting hurt late in the year and then missing the entire option year season (since options are guaranteed 2 years in the future...which is something the Steelers very rarely do).

My guess is that Felt will say that moving on from Pickett last year was a bad decision because we didn't win a playoff game. But by his "production" metric, Wilson outproduced Kenny's last year in essentially every category. Even though Kenny started an extra game.

But "production" can mean anything. So there's still some argument somewhere that will let someone who was biased toward keeping Kenny to argue that we should have kept Kenny.

* This is also why I (and I'm pretty sure you) would always prefer to spend money / draft capital on the OL and churn RBs. Except maybe if we had an elite back (and even then I didn't want to keep Bell).

Wilson was better.. until he wasn't. If you remember I was on here praising the move to Wilson when we were winning games and Wilson was throwing game winning rainbow passes.

But once we played good teams to end the season, Wilson flopped like a fish out of water. 14 sacks the last 4 games. Threw for a high of 217 yards with 2 games under 150 yards. Fumbles and a costly pick 6 vs Baltimore.

[Northern_Blitz]

Uh huh. I can't believe I have to say this to you NB but.....welcome to the internet.

This is fair.