The facts of a draft @ QB

[Joel Buchsbaum]

So a draft usually has a franchise guy in it ( top 8 qb ) and 1 good to very good QB's Top ( 15-20 ). Agreed?

We got NOBODY signed. A novice fan knows non top 20 QB's seldom win playoff games and never win a super bowl. Those are NFL truths.

All we can do as a fan is hope the Steelers brass draft a QB in round one or two.

I don't like Ewers, Millore or Dart chances to be a franchise guy or a good to very good NFL QB.
But I do like McCord who completes a good amount of passes 15+ yards, has a lighting release, and good but not great arm. He is a big man with a clean injury history. He carries his team, not the other way around. A key question to ask when drafting a QB high. He seems pretty smart based on the interview I saw. He has big hands ( My judgement based on the interview ) and is the ideal bad weather type of QB which is a bigger need playing in Pittsburgh.

But to get him we have to draft him in round one. Or we can gamble that he will be there for us in round two. Will he be a franchise QB or good to very good QB in the NFL? There are no guarantees. I say it is 50.50. If it were me I take the shot.

[hawaiiansteel]

We got NOBODY signed.

If only we had given Mason Rudolph that $20 million/year contract like you wanted we wouldn't be needing a QB right now.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think you're probably dramatically overestimating how many "franchise" and "very good" QBs are in each draft. If those numbers were right, then I think the rest of your argument would make more sense.

But these days, elite QBs have careers that are close to (or even longer) than 20 years. E.g. Rodgers just finished his 20th season.

If we got 1 franchise and 1 very good QB every draft, we'd expect that every team would have either a franchise QB or a very good QB.

But probably something like 1/2 of the league doesn't have either.

I'd guess that the average is probably something close to 1 QB that's at least average per draft (probably a little lower than that). And that there are lots of drafts without an average or better QB.

Which I think underscores how lucky we were to get Ben. That's got to be among the best QB draft classes ever. And we still needed teams like CLE to draft a TE over a QB despite need.

[NorthCoast]

I think you're probably dramatically overestimating how many "franchise" and "very good" QBs are in each draft. If those numbers were right, then I think the rest of your argument would make more sense.

But these days, elite QBs have careers that are close to (or even longer) than 20 years. E.g. Rodgers just finished his 20th season.

If we got 1 franchise and 1 very good QB every draft, we'd expect that every team would have either a franchise QB or a very good QB.

But probably something like 1/2 of the league doesn't have either.

I'd guess that the average is probably something close to 1 QB that's at least average per draft (probably a little lower than that). And that there are lots of drafts without an average or better QB.

Which I think underscores how lucky we were to get Ben. That's got to be among the best QB draft classes ever. And we still needed teams like CLE to draft a TE over a QB despite need.

100%. Been proven over the years that finding a franchise QB in Rd1 is no better than 50/50. And if you take out the top 2 or 3 QBs taken usually in the top 5 picks, it's far worse odds. Subsequent rounds it's even worse.
But I get it. Still have to take the pick when you get the chance. The Steelers did that in 2022, taking the 1st QB in the draft. Didn't work out, or well at least he certainly wasn't a Jayden Daniels anyway.

[hawaiiansteel]

I don't like Ewers, Millore or Dart chances to be a franchise guy or a good to very good NFL QB.

But I do like McCord who completes a good amount of passes 15+ yards, has a lighting release, and good but not great arm. He is a big man with a clean injury history. He carries his team, not the other way around. A key question to ask when drafting a QB high. He seems pretty smart based on the interview I saw. He has big hands ( My judgement based on the interview ) and is the ideal bad weather type of QB which is a bigger need playing in Pittsburgh.

But to get him we have to draft him in round one. Or we can gamble that he will be there for us in round two. Will he be a franchise QB or good to very good QB in the NFL? There are no guarantees. I say it is 50.50. If it were me I take the shot.

[feltdizz]

Averaging 1 QB thread a day isn’t good for the board.

[hawaiiansteel]

Averaging 1 QB thread a day isn't good for the board.

If we don't pick a QB in this draft, we're going to be averaging two Drew Allar threads a day next year.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

If only we had given Mason Rudolph that $20 million/year contract like you wanted we wouldn't be needing a QB right now.

But we did. Ruloph is better than either joker we have right now. We could have kept him for much less..

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I think you're probably dramatically overestimating how many "franchise" and "very good" QBs are in each draft. If those numbers were right, then I think the rest of your argument would make more sense.

But these days, elite QBs have careers that are close to (or even longer) than 20 years. E.g. Rodgers just finished his 20th season.

If we got 1 franchise and 1 very good QB every draft, we'd expect that every team would have either a franchise QB or a very good QB.

But probably something like 1/2 of the league doesn't have either.

I'd guess that the average is probably something close to 1 QB that's at least average per draft (probably a little lower than that). And that there are lots of drafts without an average or better QB.

Which I think underscores how lucky we were to get Ben. That's got to be among the best QB draft classes ever. And we still needed teams like CLE to draft a TE over a QB despite need.

Check the draft for the past six years.

Yes-- we we lucky to get Ben.

[Oviedo]

So a draft usually has a franchise guy in it ( top 8 qb ) and 1 good to very good QB's Top ( 15-20 ). Agreed?

We got NOBODY signed. A novice fan knows non top 20 QB's seldom win playoff games and never win a super bowl. Those are NFL truths.

All we can do as a fan is hope the Steelers brass draft a QB in round one or two.

I don't like Ewers, Millore or Dart chances to be a franchise guy or a good to very good NFL QB.
But I do like McCord who completes a good amount of passes 15+ yards, has a lighting release, and good but not great arm. He is a big man with a clean injury history. He carries his team, not the other way around. A key question to ask when drafting a QB high. He seems pretty smart based on the interview I saw. He has big hands ( My judgement based on the interview ) and is the ideal bad weather type of QB which is a bigger need playing in Pittsburgh.

But to get him we have to draft him in round one. Or we can gamble that he will be there for us in round two. Will he be a franchise QB or good to very good QB in the NFL? There are no guarantees. I say it is 50.50. If it were me I take the shot.

I agree with you about Ewers and Milroe. I'm not as down on Dart, but we have seen QBs who played in Kiffin's offense bomb in the NFL.

I actually do like McCord and think he may be the guy with best chance of success. I kinda see him as a lesser version of Big Ben.

Whenever you draft a QB it is a 50/50 crap shoot and they need to go to the perfect situation...e.g. Strong offensive support cast especially OL and RBs and strong defense that can overcome rookie QB mistakes.

[Oviedo]

If we don't pick a QB in this draft, we're going to be averaging two Drew Allar threads a day next year.

Aller was smart to go back for another year. I'm not down on him at all

[feltdizz]

If we don't pick a QB in this draft, we're going to be averaging two Drew Allar threads a day next year.

He was terrible in big games.

[feltdizz]

I agree with you about Ewers and Milroe. I'm not as down on Dart, but we have seen QBs who played in Kiffin's offense bomb in the NFL.

I actually do like McCord and think he may be the guy with best chance of success. I kinda see him as a lesser version of Big Ben.

Whenever you draft a QB it is a 50/50 crap shoot and they need to go to the perfect situation...e.g. Strong offensive support cast especially OL and RBs and strong defense that can overcome rookie QB mistakes.

I would take Ewers..

but I would warn everyone that he is an on schedule QB. He makes some bad decisions off schedule but if he or McCord are available in the second or third, why not?

[Joel Buchsbaum]

So a draft usually has a franchise guy in it ( top 8 qb ) and 1 good to very good QB's Top ( 15-20 ). Agreed?

Checking my work.

2025 TBA ???
2024 Very early but yes.
2023 Check, Looks like 2 franchise guys
2022 Nope, but Brock Prudy is a top 10-15 QB,
2021 Nope Lawrence is the best of the pack. He is a top 12-16 QB.
2020 Yes, Three franchise QB's!
2019 No
2018 Yes. Two franchise QB's, 2 good to very good ones
2017 Hard to classify, one sure fire all time great bring up the average.
2016 Yep

That is ten drafts.

[Northern_Blitz]

Check the draft for the past six years.

Yes-- we we lucky to get Ben.

Who are the 12 above average QBs in the last 6 drafts?

Remember that 6 of them can't just be above average, they need to be franchise QBs.