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Here is my updated list of qb prospects. For some aid I will be using the ESPN QBR chart in college as it is a good benchmark. Now for my little spin on things I judge a QB on his competition he has faced. The EPSN chart does not!
https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbrDoes he play top 25 teams at least twice?
For his stats I minus approximately 5% accuracy and throwing yardage if the player plays nobodies because that type of schedule and the bad db's played against is easy.
If the QB has amazing NFL talent at the skill positions, I take that into his completion and yardage as well. So it evens out.
The ESPN QBR chart does not rate a player propensity to be injured either, I do.
If the player is hurt once and misses games that happens, but twice is a disturbing trend, and three times and he is an official medical risk in my opinion and should not be drafted within the first two rounds. This risk is magnified if the player is a running qb type of player. All injuries are their own cases but knee, ankle, spine or neck injuries are serious, as are head injuries.
I doubt players under 6'1" inches. And I know the string bean types under 210 pounds are more prone to get hurt.
I do give bonus points for projects on size. I don't rate personalities but if a player gets in trouble off the field, that is a red flag are stupid social media comments.
I have seen every man play.
Everybody got it?
I must say the NFL should be thankful for the QB prospects coming out IMO are as strong as they have been in the last 10 years. This list is evolving by the week.
Now having said all of the above, here is my list.
The top QB 2024 draft prospects.
1. Bo Nix.
His arm, accuracy, release and command of the offense is special, as are his TD to Int ratio.
He is mobile too but does not build his game around running for first downs. He runs a 2 minute like drill very well. He has a good touch on his pases too. I'm sold.
Projected NFL pick. Top 5.
2. Drake Maye. Very hyped, but has it all physically. The arm, the size, the accuracy, his mobitly and the family ( his dad played QB. And his brothers and sisters lettered in college on sporting teams. so did his mom ) are top draw. And he is smart. All academic ACC type, so perseumbley he has football IQ. Need a little more seasoning.
Projected Pick top 5
3. McCarthy.
He is tall, accurate, highly QBR rated, has a very good arm and can run a 4.6. Only red flag is he does not throw for many attempts, which is why he isn't a yardage guy. But he is 4-1 vs top 10 ranked teams for the 2022 and 2023 season. The Red flag is limited yardage in some games, but when he has to pass it often, he has in 3 games of 31 attempts or more. Looking at those games he has three 300 yard games. 5 td's 2 nt. So he does just fine when he has to throw it.
Projected NFL pick top 15.
4. Jayden Daniels. This LSU QB is fun to watch. He is a legit running threat and offers good accuracy, hitting mamy down the field passes. But he is also rail thin like 185 pounds. He is 3-5 vs. top 25 teams and has excellent receivers around him. Very much sizzle and lacking some substance. He has several head and neck injuries. But oh can he play.
Projected NFL draft pick #15-30 overall.
5. Caeb Willliams. He is a little short and weighs? Let's see his NFL measurements. His accuracy in the pocket is good not great and he is 0-4 vs. top 25 teams throwing for just 5 TD and 3 INT in these four games. I think he is way overrated and plays with some fine NFL to be WR's . He has a red flag on social media comments. But he can move and make plays, but He takes a lot of sacks and could be slow to process things. Nagging injury issues combined with his play is a red flag. A diva type, not a stand up guy. I do not like this guy.
Projected NFL draft pick top 10, some NFL media people think he is the #1 pick. I would pass on him in round one for the reasons mentioned.
6. Mike Pennix . Pennix is a very good pocket passer. He is tall enough and has a plus type of arm. But he is oh so fragile. With two torn acl injuries and two joint injuries in the upper body. A major red flag. He is not likey to last long in the NFL. This is sad, but true.
Projected draft pick round two.
7. Caron Beck. Beck is a big qb who is very accurate and productive. He is on an amazing team but stands as his own player, not a game manager type at all. He has a very good arm and release. And he's smart. Is semi mobile. He rolls top 25 teams and is 4-0 vs. top 25 teams passing 300 yard three times. Well -- one game was 298 yards. An ascending player with a small sample size of game played. The arrow on him is pointing up.
Projected draft pick round two.
8. Dillon Gabreil. This little man ( he is short under 6 feet and light ) has passed for 400+ yards three times this year , and 300+ yards 4 times! He can run well and has very good accuracy hitting guys down the field in stride. There is something about him.
Projected draft pick round two
9. Mike Pratt. This well-built QB doesn't have great talent around him yet produces and checks many boxes. He can run for 1 st downs. His red flag is he does not attempt many passes and he plays a weak schedule. His bowl game and off season game / workouts can really help his case.
Project draft pick round three.
10. Quinn Ewers.
There is something I don't like about him, but he is a big game QB, who is 2-1 vs. top 25 teams and has shown the ability to pass for over 300 yards 4 times in 2023. He says he is likely coming back to school and needs some non RPO polish, but someone should tell him there is a guy named Manning behind him.
Projected draft pick round three
The Steelers should draft a QB in round one of the 2024 draft. We are stuck with 10 pounds of poop in a five pound pound bag. A trade up to get McCarthy is fine ( take our second round pick and our #2 in 2025 ) use our #1 by staying put and drafting Daniels who is exciting. Selecting a QB such as Beck in round two would bring great value. Really and one of these three men would be fantastic Steelers.
We need a new head coach as the team chemistry is a mess. It just is. We have no OC. These two men the head coach and the OC are key for QB development.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbrDoes he play top 25 teams at least twice?
For his stats I minus approximately 5% accuracy and throwing yardage if the player plays nobodies because that type of schedule and the bad db's played against is easy.
If the QB has amazing NFL talent at the skill positions, I take that into his completion and yardage as well. So it evens out.
The ESPN QBR chart does not rate a player propensity to be injured either, I do.
If the player is hurt once and misses games that happens, but twice is a disturbing trend, and three times and he is an official medical risk in my opinion and should not be drafted within the first two rounds. This risk is magnified if the player is a running qb type of player. All injuries are their own cases but knee, ankle, spine or neck injuries are serious, as are head injuries.
I doubt players under 6'1" inches. And I know the string bean types under 210 pounds are more prone to get hurt.
I do give bonus points for projects on size. I don't rate personalities but if a player gets in trouble off the field, that is a red flag are stupid social media comments.
I have seen every man play.
Everybody got it?
I must say the NFL should be thankful for the QB prospects coming out IMO are as strong as they have been in the last 10 years. This list is evolving by the week.
Now having said all of the above, here is my list.
The top QB 2024 draft prospects.
1. Bo Nix.
His arm, accuracy, release and command of the offense is special, as are his TD to Int ratio.
He is mobile too but does not build his game around running for first downs. He runs a 2 minute like drill very well. He has a good touch on his pases too. I'm sold.
Projected NFL pick. Top 5.
2. Drake Maye. Very hyped, but has it all physically. The arm, the size, the accuracy, his mobitly and the family ( his dad played QB. And his brothers and sisters lettered in college on sporting teams. so did his mom ) are top draw. And he is smart. All academic ACC type, so perseumbley he has football IQ. Need a little more seasoning.
Projected Pick top 5
3. McCarthy.
He is tall, accurate, highly QBR rated, has a very good arm and can run a 4.6. Only red flag is he does not throw for many attempts, which is why he isn't a yardage guy. But he is 4-1 vs top 10 ranked teams for the 2022 and 2023 season. The Red flag is limited yardage in some games, but when he has to pass it often, he has in 3 games of 31 attempts or more. Looking at those games he has three 300 yard games. 5 td's 2 nt. So he does just fine when he has to throw it.
Projected NFL pick top 15.
4. Jayden Daniels. This LSU QB is fun to watch. He is a legit running threat and offers good accuracy, hitting mamy down the field passes. But he is also rail thin like 185 pounds. He is 3-5 vs. top 25 teams and has excellent receivers around him. Very much sizzle and lacking some substance. He has several head and neck injuries. But oh can he play.
Projected NFL draft pick #15-30 overall.
5. Caeb Willliams. He is a little short and weighs? Let's see his NFL measurements. His accuracy in the pocket is good not great and he is 0-4 vs. top 25 teams throwing for just 5 TD and 3 INT in these four games. I think he is way overrated and plays with some fine NFL to be WR's . He has a red flag on social media comments. But he can move and make plays, but He takes a lot of sacks and could be slow to process things. Nagging injury issues combined with his play is a red flag. A diva type, not a stand up guy. I do not like this guy.
Projected NFL draft pick top 10, some NFL media people think he is the #1 pick. I would pass on him in round one for the reasons mentioned.
6. Mike Pennix . Pennix is a very good pocket passer. He is tall enough and has a plus type of arm. But he is oh so fragile. With two torn acl injuries and two joint injuries in the upper body. A major red flag. He is not likey to last long in the NFL. This is sad, but true.
Projected draft pick round two.
7. Caron Beck. Beck is a big qb who is very accurate and productive. He is on an amazing team but stands as his own player, not a game manager type at all. He has a very good arm and release. And he's smart. Is semi mobile. He rolls top 25 teams and is 4-0 vs. top 25 teams passing 300 yard three times. Well -- one game was 298 yards. An ascending player with a small sample size of game played. The arrow on him is pointing up.
Projected draft pick round two.
8. Dillon Gabreil. This little man ( he is short under 6 feet and light ) has passed for 400+ yards three times this year , and 300+ yards 4 times! He can run well and has very good accuracy hitting guys down the field in stride. There is something about him.
Projected draft pick round two
9. Mike Pratt. This well-built QB doesn't have great talent around him yet produces and checks many boxes. He can run for 1 st downs. His red flag is he does not attempt many passes and he plays a weak schedule. His bowl game and off season game / workouts can really help his case.
Project draft pick round three.
10. Quinn Ewers.
There is something I don't like about him, but he is a big game QB, who is 2-1 vs. top 25 teams and has shown the ability to pass for over 300 yards 4 times in 2023. He says he is likely coming back to school and needs some non RPO polish, but someone should tell him there is a guy named Manning behind him.
Projected draft pick round three
The Steelers should draft a QB in round one of the 2024 draft. We are stuck with 10 pounds of poop in a five pound pound bag. A trade up to get McCarthy is fine ( take our second round pick and our #2 in 2025 ) use our #1 by staying put and drafting Daniels who is exciting. Selecting a QB such as Beck in round two would bring great value. Really and one of these three men would be fantastic Steelers.
We need a new head coach as the team chemistry is a mess. It just is. We have no OC. These two men the head coach and the OC are key for QB development.
.
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