2023 Receiving Offense

[NorthCoast]

There were a total 548 targets by the Steelers in 2022.

My thoughts on what the 2023 passing offense should look like.

DJ's targets take a huge hit this year at the expense of players that can produce a lot more YAC.

Player	2022 %tgts	2023 %tgts
DJ	27%	17%
GPickens	15%	16%
Muth	18%	13%
ARII	---	12%
NHarris	10%	8%
JWarren	6%	8%
CClaypool	9%	---
CHeyward	3%	8%
DWashington	---	8%
CAustin	0%	6%
ZGentry	4%	0%
Sims	4%	---

Note also that total pass attempts may fall if the Steelers go 'ground and pound' in the majority of games.

[The Man of Steel]

So Anthony Miller doesn’t make the team then?

[NorthCoast]

So Anthony Miller doesn’t make the team then?

He is third string at best and any targets will be part of the noise... (from the total shown there's another 5% TBD).

[Northern_Blitz]

So Anthony Miller doesn’t make the team then?

He's on the bubble for sure.

I think the WR group will be interesting at the low end in camp.

[Iron City Inc.]

Miller n Olszewski should be part of a super competitive camp. Where they will finish TBD. Gunner is okay at punt returns but he brings very little as a wr. Had 5 catches last year. Miller is a true unknown at this point in his career. He has to stay healthy.
Special team play will likely be the deciding factor with the last 2 receiver spots.

[Northern_Blitz]

Miller n Olszewski should be part of a super competitive camp. Where they will finish TBD. Gunner is okay at punt returns but he brings very little as a wr. Had 5 catches last year. Miller is a true unknown at this point in his career. He has to stay healthy.
Special team play will likely be the deciding factor with the last 2 receiver spots.

I really hope we don't bring Gunner back.

He'd be a good punt returner, but fumbles lose games (and maybe we make the playoffs without the one against the Pats).

[Blitzer]

I am hoping Pickens gets more than 16% of the targets. The guy should blow up this year.

[Steelerphile]

There were a total 548 targets by the Steelers in 2022.

My thoughts on what the 2023 passing offense should look like.

DJ's targets take a huge hit this year at the expense of players that can produce a lot more YAC.

Player	2022 %tgts	2023 %tgts
DJ	27%	17%
GPickens	15%	16%
Muth	18%	13%
ARII	---	12%
NHarris	10%	8%
JWarren	6%	8%
CClaypool	9%	---
CHeyward	3%	8%
DWashington	---	8%
CAustin	0%	6%
ZGentry	4%	0%
Sims	4%	---

Note also that total pass attempts may fall if the Steelers go 'ground and pound' in the majority of games.

Something that you do so well is find these type of stats and post them on this site. There was something I was wondering if you could research. Some posters mock Matt Canada by sarcastically saying he will run a jet sweep in any situation with players who aren't suited. But my impression that the jet sweep, being a staple of the Canada offense, was mostly a successful play. I personally like that play. Can you find any stats on the times the Steelers ran jet sweeps, who ran them and how well they worked?

[NorthCoast]

Something that you do so well is find these type of stats and post them on this site. There was something I was wondering if you could research. Some posters mock Matt Canada by sarcastically saying he will run a jet sweep in any situation with players who aren't suited. But my impression that the jet sweep, being a staple of the Canada offense, was mostly a successful play. I personally like that play. Can you find any stats on the times the Steelers ran jet sweeps, who ran them and how well they worked?

Thanks Steelerphile. I try to post stuff that might get a conversation on both sides. To your question, I haven't seen such a play breakdown available. Mostly seen breakdowns by personnel. If I find something I will throw it out here.

[NorthCoast]

I am hoping Pickens gets more than 16% of the targets. The guy should blow up this year.

It's not all on the OC. A lot is dependent on him learning more of the route tree.

[Ghost]

Jet sweeps and who gets the receptions don’t really matter if they don’t find a way to score TDS. 29 was in the lower rankings, last in their division. KC and Philly had 61 and 59. That’s on the OC.

[pfelix73]

Thanks Steelerphile. I try to post stuff that might get a conversation on both sides. To your question, I haven't seen such a play breakdown available. Mostly seen breakdowns by personnel. If I find something I will throw it out here.

Every time I watch a pro team run a jet sweep, it most definitely fails. I cannot think of a time where I saw one succeed. Succeed meaning gaining more than 4 yards. Also, the flaw with them is that you are putting your WR's in harms way with trying to run one. Example- JuJu got hurt on one. Gonna run the ball, let the RB do it.

[Blitzer]

Every time I watch a pro team run a jet sweep, it most definitely fails. I cannot think of a time where I saw one succeed. Succeed meaning gaining more than 4 yards. Also, the flaw with them is that you are putting your WR's in harms way with trying to run one. Example- JuJu got hurt on one. Gonna run the ball, let the RB do it.

I recall a couple good ones last year. Didnt Conner Heyward have one to seal a game for us?

[Joel Buchsbaum]

There were a total 548 targets by the Steelers in 2022.

My thoughts on what the 2023 passing offense should look like.

DJ's targets take a huge hit this year at the expense of players that can produce a lot more YAC.

Player	2022 %tgts	2023 %tgts
DJ	27%	17%
GPickens	15%	16%
Muth	18%	13%
ARII	---	12%
NHarris	10%	8%
JWarren	6%	8%
CClaypool	9%	---
CHeyward	3%	8%
DWashington	---	8%
CAustin	0%	6%
ZGentry	4%	0%
Sims	4%	---

partly
Note also that total pass attempts may fall if the Steelers go 'ground and pound' in the majority of games.

I expect Pickens to break out in year two. The QB play was holding him back, but he made several spectacular catches. He needs to broaden his rotes. A player like him should able to run to come back route well. His 2023 stats will go up. Johnson's target's will go down. His " stats " are partly the product of a bad OL which was upgraded that forced a rookie QB to throw it short so often. That will change for the better. I expect 'Muth's stats to drop a little. Warren is going to play more. His stats will rise as will Austin's. I expect Harris targets to drop. We've got some players. I told you guys we weren't going to draft any WR early.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

There were a total 548 targets by the Steelers in 2022.

My thoughts on what the 2023 passing offense should look like.

DJ's targets take a huge hit this year at the expense of players that can produce a lot more YAC.

Player	2022 %tgts	2023 %tgts
DJ	27%	17%
GPickens	15%	16%
Muth	18%	13%
ARII	---	12%
NHarris	10%	8%
JWarren	6%	8%
CClaypool	9%	---
CHeyward	3%	8%
DWashington	---	8%
CAustin	0%	6%
ZGentry	4%	0%
Sims	4%	---

partly
Note also that total pass attempts may fall if the Steelers go 'ground and pound' in the majority of games.

I expect Pickens to break out in year two. The QB play was holding him back, but he made several spectacular catches. He needs to broaden his routes. A player like him should able to run to come back route well. His 2023 stats will go up. Johnson's target's will go down. His " stats " are partly the product of a bad OL which was upgraded that forced a rookie QB to throw it short so often. That will change for the better and Picket I here is bigger and stronger this year ( and he needs to be ) This will tell if he can become a good medium to deep passer, which was a weakness last year. . I expect 'Muth's stats to drop a little. Warren is going to play more. His stats will rise as will Austin's. I expect Harris targets to drop. We've got some players. I told you guys we weren't going to draft any WR early.