Dizz, please convine me Pickett ain't a Trubisky clone

[WindyCitySteel]

Mitch will have a good preseason and win the job, but I expect Pickett to take over before the season is half over. There will be some mind-numbing, game-losing TOs and too many misses downfield that will spell the end for MT.

[Captain Lemming]

Maybe the point is that Mitch isn't a mystery box any more? He got a shot and didn't work out (at least not yet).

That doesn't mean that another mystery box with the same wrapping won't work out.

I think QB's are the NFL equivalent of goalies in hockey. No one has any real clue when scouting them.

If that is the case, why is he a Steeler?

[Sager]

My thoughts have nothing to do with other QBs in this draft.

I wanted to get another piece and roll with Trubisky. If he is trash we draft higher next season. But we don't know what we have with him based on college or the Bears in my view.

I get that. I'd only say that now if Mitch does sh*t the bed this year, we have an option to turn to immediately that isn't Rudolph.

And also that it is no guarantee that even if Mitch sucks, and we didn't draft a QB this year, that means we are automatically picking in the top ten in Draft 2023. Tomlin got a bad Rudolph and Duck Hodges team to still go 8-8 and would have picked 18th in the draft.

With HOU, CAR, ATL, DET, SEA all potentially wanting a QB, who knows if we can even get a QB of the grade of Pickett, even with a trade up.

[Bawb the Revelator]

Way I see it is, if you had to flip a coin to determine if either Mitch or Kenny will pan out in the NFL, then it's nice to have the opportunity to flip that coin again if the first flip is wrong.

And as far as Kenny versus the other draft QBs, I guess they feel that you only have to flip the coin correctly once for Kenny to pan out (high floor), whereas you need to flip the coin correctly 3 or 4 times to judge the likelihood of Willis or Ridder panning out.

FWIW "attitude" often determines NFL success in QBs. Joe Kapp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kapp
of the Vikes regularly threw end-over-end passes that were also "catchable." Bill Kilmer my all time Dumbest Ever UCLA jock nominee was George Allen's SB QB, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Kilmer
Yeah, that was then but maybe this group needs an unofficial NFL Paleoarcheologist

[Steelerphile]

Not a Pitt fan, but better accuracy, ability to scan the field, playing in a pro-style system, throwing on the run, and not melting in the clutch are obvious differences.

I like this summary. Very astute. People use the term "clone" all the time, so and so is a "clone" of so and so. But there are no clones actually. Pickett is different. I think Mitch may be slightly more athletic or have a slightly stronger arm, but Pickett has more than enough arm and athleticism. I haven't watch Trubisky enough to summarize his strengths and weaknesses with confidence but i think it is mostly about the intangibles for Pickett. Knowing how to make a play, making the right read and not showing hesitation.

But we have to wait and see, noone can argue the point until Pickett shows it on the field. As far as having the 4th worst QB. We'll also see about that. Watson has really good stats but he is not a winner in terms of team wins. Burrow had one excellent season. He looks good but has to keep doing it. I think Jackson is outstanding and takes far too much criticism, but he is vulnerable also.

[NorthCoast]

You know I tend glass half full. I wanna like Pickett. I really do. And I think he may well be the most ready guy.

But what I see is a Trubisky clone... almost shockingly similar.

Mobile, no cannon, ceiling of "good" not great.

What does this kid bring that is different than what we have?

After watching his first season, where KP may be separating himself is with clutch plays. KP's two game sample to win in the final moments isn't a lot but it looks promising. I don't think MT makes those plays. But the RZ is the one glaring fault KP needs to improve on. Most winning NFL QBs are in the range of 55%-60% in the RZ. MT's rookie season he was 50%+ and his worst season in CHI he was still better than KP. (I don't buy the offensive play-calling in the RZ argument. It didn't change that much from MT or even Roethlisberger the year before).

Right now I also don't think either player is the kind of QB you want throwing 35+ times a game. MT is 6-12 in games with 35+ attempts, KP is 1-4.

[feltdizz]

After watching his first season, where KP may be separating himself is with clutch plays. KP's two game sample to win in the final moments isn't a lot but it looks promising. I don't think MT makes those plays. But the RZ is the one glaring fault KP needs to improve on. Most winning NFL QBs are in the range of 55%-60% in the RZ. MT's rookie season he was 50%+ and his worst season in CHI he was still better than KP. (I don't buy the offensive play-calling in the RZ argument. It didn't change that much from MT or even Roethlisberger the year before).

Right now I also don't think either player is the kind of QB you want throwing 35+ times a game. MT is 6-12 in games with 35+ attempts, KP is 1-4.

3 of the 4 losses were road games and they were also the first 3 of his first 4 games in the NFL. This will improve over time.

No real knock on losing to Buffalo, Phill and Miami in their house. That Miami game is where Kenny started showing flashes and I think if he throws that last INT to Pickens instead of duh DJ we live to see another down or actually win.

I haven’t checked but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mitch with more losses to subpar teams in those 12 losses.

[feltdizz]

Not a Pitt fan, but better accuracy, ability to scan the field, playing in a pro-style system, throwing on the run, and not melting in the clutch are obvious differences.

this summary held up well.

I think when the lights were the brightest and we needed wins down the stretch Kenny showed that clutch gene that Mitch lacks.

[Captain Lemming]

After watching his first season, where KP may be separating himself is with clutch plays. KP's two game sample to win in the final moments isn't a lot but it looks promising. I don't think MT makes those plays. But the RZ is the one glaring fault KP needs to improve on. Most winning NFL QBs are in the range of 55%-60% in the RZ. MT's rookie season he was 50%+ and his worst season in CHI he was still better than KP. (I don't buy the offensive play-calling in the RZ argument. It didn't change that much from MT or even Roethlisberger the year before).

Y’all realize that I was sold on Kenny in the PRESEASON right?

He demonstrated that clutch gene then but some dismissed it as being just preseason.

[Northern_Blitz]

Y’all realize that I was sold on Kenny in the PRESEASON right?

He demonstrated that clutch gene then but some dismissed it as being just preseason.

I am not sure that I believe that "clutch play" is a thing.

I think that good players make good plays more often. So good players tend to make good plays in important situations too.

That and "clutch" often just the result of small sample sizes. Many "clutch" players aren't when you look over large samples.

I used to believe this more strongly though.

An interesting counter argument comes from golf. Pro golfers are more likely to miss the same put for birdie that they would make for par. At least I think that was true in some sports phycology paper I saw referenced somewhere.

[blacknblue80s]

Mitch's first few games with the Steelers were just a continuation of what had been frustrating Bears fans to no end.

I got the impression that Tomlin really wanted it to work out with Trubisky and to let KP sit for his first year but Trubisky was bad enough for Tomlin to just say F-it and make Kenny's first start be against the Bills of all teams.

All of the limited ceiling talk about KP is crazy to me. His ceiling is yet to be determined and I don't see why he can't have a Drew Brees type of career arc.

[NorthCoast]

... I don't see why he can't have a Drew Brees type of career arc.

Gee I sure hope not. One SB in 20 yrs just doesn't seem enough

[NorthCoast]

I am not sure that I believe that "clutch play" is a thing.

I think that good players make good plays more often. So good players tend to make good plays in important situations too.

That and "clutch" often just the result of small sample sizes. Many "clutch" players aren't when you look over large samples.

I used to believe this more strongly though.

An interesting counter argument comes from golf. Pro golfers are more likely to miss the same put for birdie that they would make for par. At least I think that was true in some sports phycology paper I saw referenced somewhere.

KP is already > Joe Burrow; 4 GW drives vs 0 in their rookie seasons (in fact, it took Burrow to Yr3 to match that ).

[whisper]

Way I see it is, if you had to flip a coin to determine if either Mitch or Kenny will pan out in the NFL, then it's nice to have the opportunity to flip that coin again if the first flip is wrong.

And as far as Kenny versus the other draft QBs, I guess they feel that you only have to flip the coin correctly once for Kenny to pan out (high floor), whereas you need to flip the coin correctly 3 or 4 times to judge the likelihood of Willis or Ridder panning out.

Yea, Willis sure did drop from the discussion of possible NFL starters quickly, didn't he? I guess Tomlin's judgment ain't so keen for QBs, is it? He loved the guy.

[blacknblue80s]

Gee I sure hope not. One SB in 20 yrs just doesn't seem enough

Lol, I didn't think that through.