Honest eval after today

[Terrapin]

Minkah is great. Troy couldn't tackle great either in the open field he's just put his head into you. It's not Minkahs fault Devin Bush can't read the run gaps & gets swallowed up by blockers. And our backup DL were horrible. I think Sutton is very solid too and Edmunds is actually improving some like Bud Dupree did when he was bad first 3 years. And i really like Pierre & Norwood both rookies right? Not having Alualu & Tuitt is really hurting & showing us how average Bush, Schroeder & Highsmith are at the moment....I also like Biggs NOT as a starter but he's a decent backup NT. He literally won the Ravens game for us last year tackling Lamar Jackson of all people on 3rd & 4th & goal to seal the win. On 4th he tackled him with 1 arm while being held.

Offense i think you are dead on correct although Green will probably make a good guard when we draft a real center.

Wrong. Minkah was great for 2 seasons. Now he's average, or at least playing average, at best. The rest of the names you mentioned are all ham & eggers that aren't anywhere near the upper half of their positions

[brothervad]

Been a while since I did a numbers crunch for you all but I got a bit interested in some things and decided to do some analysis.

Table 1 is sorted by wins within the AFC and then by the number of victories by 2 possessions or greater (10 points or more). As you can see the Steelers have no wins of greater than 10 points and only the Jets and Jaguars can boast of the underachievement. Now granted, some of the 1 only folks actually played against the Jags or the Texans, but still that list only inlcudes the Texans, Dolphins, Chargers (that may be some good news for next week).

This is more conjecture and less a statement of fact - I feel that there are more injuries that occur when every game throughout the entire course of a season makes a team play like every play they are backed up against a wall, trying to do too much, not being able to substitute or all out replace players late in the game because you don't have a cushion of a lead. I would love to conduct an analysis of this...right now it's just a theory. I know I say this knowing very well, the Steelers tend to play to the level of their opponent meaning often it comes down to the wire. So as Steve McGarret says..."I have a hunch, Dano". But completely speculation on my part.

Team	Wins	Losses	Tie	Point diff	wins by 10-13	wins by 14-20	wins greaters >20	Total 2+ Poss wins
Titans	8	2		46	1	1	1	3
Bills	6	3		145	0	2	4	6
Patriots	6	4		98	0	1	3	4
Chiefs	6	4		21	1	1	1	3
Ravens	6	3		14	0	1	1	2
Colts	5	5		38	2	1	1	4
Broncos	5	5		17	1	2	1	4
Bengals	5	4		33	0	1	2	3
Browns	5	5		-10	1	1	1	3
Raiders	5	4		-20	2	0	0	2
Chargers	5	4		-9	0	1	0	1
Steelers	5	3	1	-8	0	0	0	0
Dolphins	3	7		-75	1	0	0	1
Jets	2	7		-135	0	0	0	0
Jaguars	2	7		-83	0	0	0	0
Texans	1	8		-130	0	1	0	1

Table 2 below is how the Steelers faired against their opponents this year, thus far (based on their PF and PA averages alongside with the Steelers PF/PA averages). Green is where we performed/out performed per our averages, Red is where we underperformed per our averages and Yellow is where the Steelers did not perform to average but limited the opponent to their averages.

Teams	PF Ttl	PA Ttl	PF -avg	PA - avg	Game ST - PA	Game ST -PF
Steelers	177	185	19.7	20.6
Bills	280	135	31.1	15.0	16	23
Raiders	210	230	23.3	25.6	26	17
Bengals	236	203	26.2	22.6	24	10
Packers	216	180	21.6	18.0	27	17
Broncos	200	183	20.0	18.3	19	27
Seahawks	181	186	20.1	20.7	20	23
Browns	231	241	23.1	24.1	10	15
Bears	150	224	16.7	24.9	27	29
Lions	150	260	16.7	28.9	16	16

What do we see here? The obvious results are when both sides of the ball outperform vs the average the Steelers are 3-0. When they underperform they are 0-2, and when the D holds the slightly below their average but does not hold the team to the average PA they are 0-1 (Bengals). What is interesting is when the D exceeds but the Offense underperforms, the Steelers are 2-0. Only 1 time this year has the offense outperformed and the D underperformed based on their PF/PA averages and that was the win against the Bears.

What's this all mean? Well beyond the no duh of things it spells out the D has to carry the day and when it doesn't not a chance in hell of winning. There is a very small margin for error in 5 of the 9 games (56% of the games they have played) they are 1-3-1 and average 15 points a game. the other 4 games (44%) they are 4-0 and average 25.5 points on offense. the PF in those 4 games is +18 total for an average of 4.5 points per game...again not much wiggle room, but at least its > than a FG in those wins.

Finally, I believe San Diego is a must win for this team for the season. Why? Crystal ball wise, I still think Ravens are a split at best, Cleveland might be a sweep, but I just am not sure that the Bengals won't sweep. I think there are some considerable matchup issues for the Steelers. I think we lose to the Chiefs, I think the team we beat but shouldn't is the Titans, I believe the team we shouldn't lose to but will is the Vikings so given that is a 3-4 record excluding San Diego. that means winning against the Chargers, the Steelers end the year with 4-4 record and a 9-7-1 final record, a loss and the Tomlin never had a losing season crowd can still croon at 8-8-1.

[brothervad]

Part 2:

So looking at a similar team stats wise this year based on yards/pts per game I looked at the Raiders when comparing them to the Steelers:

Offense	Total	Avg/G	Pass Ttl	Pass Avg/G	Rush Ttl	Rush Avg/G
Raiders	3,455	383.9	2,690	298.9	765	85
Chargers	3,332	370.2	2,430	270	902	100.2
Defense	Total	Avg/G	Pass Ttl	Pass Avg/G	Rush Ttl	Rush Avg/G
Steelers	3,140	348.9	2,033	225.9	1,107	123

Offense	Total	Avg/G	Pass Ttl	Pass Avg/G	Rush Ttl	Rush Avg/G
Steelers	2,980	331.1	2,128	236.4	852	94.7
Defense	Total	Avg/G	Pass Ttl	Pass Avg/G	Rush Ttl	Rush Avg/G
Raiders	3,241	360.1	2,079	231	1,162	129.1
Chargers	3,250	361.1	1,854	206	1,396	155.1

What I see here is that Matt Canada better gameplan to commit to the run...and I mean commit. He didn't do it against Detroit in the freaking rain, but the Chargers are a sieve. I mean Chargers are even worse than the Lions who gives up on average 135.7 per game yards on the ground. But will Mr. I am in love with my gadget plays gameplan accordingly. Only time will tell but here's guessing no.

The final table for the Chargers vs Steelers...I collected similar opponents around PF/PA averages and looked on how the Steelers fared. I know that you need to look farther down to know how those points were realized (via air vs ground) but just wanted to look at a high level. As you can see the averages come pretty close. Steelers are 1-2 in those games and the Offense way underperformed in all 3 games. It was teh D that carried the one win against the Browns.

Teams	PF Ttl	PA Ttl	PF -avg	PA - avg	Game ST - PA	Game ST -PF
Raiders	210	230	23.3	25.6	26	17
Bengals	236	203	26.2	22.6	24	10
Browns	231	241	23.1	24.1	10	15
Averages	226	225	24.2	24.1	20	14
Chargers	219	228	24.3	25.3	??	??

What's this all suggest. Probably need more digging...but I think it confirms what we all know. The Chargers do not blow opponents away and have a very similar points differential with the Steelers (-9 & -8 respectively). On D they are either really good on pass D or so bad on run D teams just pound it on them. They give up 25.3 points a game (hmmm when the Steelers score 25.5 they are 4-0) but they average 24.3 points on O (Steelers are 2-3 with teams that average 21 points or greater this season).

I typed all of this to basically state the obvious. if the offense scores 24 or more they will win, if they don't then the D will have to hold the Chargers to 14-17 points. This screams to me of a different gameplan than Matt Canada will want to implement...which is a commitment to the run.

All of this suggests to me this is a must win.

Thanks for following along...

Brothervad

[LPMAN]

Wrong. Minkah was great for 2 seasons. Now he's average, or at least playing average, at best. The rest of the names you mentioned are all ham & eggers that aren't anywhere near the upper half of their positions

I disagree with that. Minkah is like Carnell Lake people just stay away from throwing his way. So he's not making that many plays in the secondary.

[LPMAN]

This board is so humorous....So we are now at the evaluation point where players like Minkah are the problem with the team but Mike Tomlin should just be enshrined with a gold vest now.....LOL LOL

[Mr.wizard]

Mike Tomlin and Minkah are not the problem, I say the defense is not the problem at all. The problem is the execution on offense, mainly because the oline and QB play has been inconsistent.

[feltdizz]

This board is so humorous....So we are now at the evaluation point where players like Minkah are the problem with the team but Mike Tomlin should just be enshrined with a gold vest now.....LOL LOL

I think both of your assessments are hot takes.

Most people think Minkah is good but isn’t the best tackler and maybe half the board believes Tomlin will get a gold jacket if and when he retires.

People tend to forget that Tomlin has 2 SB Rings but he also has damn near identical stats as Cowher.

[feltdizz]

Mike Tomlin and Minkah are not the problem, I say the defense is not the problem at all. The problem is the execution on offense, mainly because the oline and QB play has been inconsistent.

Giving up 200 rushing yards at halftime is a problem.

[Prowler]

Mike Tomlin and Minkah are not the problem, I say the defense is not the problem at all. The problem is the execution on offense, mainly because the oline and QB play has been inconsistent.

A soft run defense that was gashed by a winless team on a day with inclement weather, and we still couldn't stop them knowing they were going to run all the time. That is the very definition of a problem defense.

[Northern_Blitz]

Been a while since I did a numbers crunch for you all but I got a bit interested in some things and decided to do some analysis.

Table 1 is sorted by wins within the AFC and then by the number of victories by 2 possessions or greater (10 points or more). As you can see the Steelers have no wins of greater than 10 points and only the Jets and Jaguars can boast of the underachievement. Now granted, some of the 1 only folks actually played against the Jags or the Texans, but still that list only inlcudes the Texans, Dolphins, Chargers (that may be some good news for next week).

This is more conjecture and less a statement of fact - I feel that there are more injuries that occur when every game throughout the entire course of a season makes a team play like every play they are backed up against a wall, trying to do too much, not being able to substitute or all out replace players late in the game because you don't have a cushion of a lead. I would love to conduct an analysis of this...right now it's just a theory. I know I say this knowing very well, the Steelers tend to play to the level of their opponent meaning often it comes down to the wire. So as Steve McGarret says..."I have a hunch, Dano". But completely speculation on my part.

Team	Wins	Losses	Tie	Point diff	wins by 10-13	wins by 14-20	wins greaters >20	Total 2+ Poss wins
Titans	8	2		46	1	1	1	3
Bills	6	3		145	0	2	4	6
Patriots	6	4		98	0	1	3	4
Chiefs	6	4		21	1	1	1	3
Ravens	6	3		14	0	1	1	2
Colts	5	5		38	2	1	1	4
Broncos	5	5		17	1	2	1	4
Bengals	5	4		33	0	1	2	3
Browns	5	5		-10	1	1	1	3
Raiders	5	4		-20	2	0	0	2
Chargers	5	4		-9	0	1	0	1
Steelers	5	3	1	-8	0	0	0	0
Dolphins	3	7		-75	1	0	0	1
Jets	2	7		-135	0	0	0	0
Jaguars	2	7		-83	0	0	0	0
Texans	1	8		-130	0	1	0	1

Table 2 below is how the Steelers faired against their opponents this year, thus far (based on their PF and PA averages alongside with the Steelers PF/PA averages). Green is where we performed/out performed per our averages, Red is where we underperformed per our averages and Yellow is where the Steelers did not perform to average but limited the opponent to their averages.

Teams	PF Ttl	PA Ttl	PF -avg	PA - avg	Game ST - PA	Game ST -PF
Steelers	177	185	19.7	20.6
Bills	280	135	31.1	15.0	16	23
Raiders	210	230	23.3	25.6	26	17
Bengals	236	203	26.2	22.6	24	10
Packers	216	180	21.6	18.0	27	17
Broncos	200	183	20.0	18.3	19	27
Seahawks	181	186	20.1	20.7	20	23
Browns	231	241	23.1	24.1	10	15
Bears	150	224	16.7	24.9	27	29
Lions	150	260	16.7	28.9	16	16

What do we see here? The obvious results are when both sides of the ball outperform vs the average the Steelers are 3-0. When they underperform they are 0-2, and when the D holds the slightly below their average but does not hold the team to the average PA they are 0-1 (Bengals). What is interesting is when the D exceeds but the Offense underperforms, the Steelers are 2-0. Only 1 time this year has the offense outperformed and the D underperformed based on their PF/PA averages and that was the win against the Bears.

What's this all mean? Well beyond the no duh of things it spells out the D has to carry the day and when it doesn't not a chance in hell of winning. There is a very small margin for error in 5 of the 9 games (56% of the games they have played) they are 1-3-1 and average 15 points a game. the other 4 games (44%) they are 4-0 and average 25.5 points on offense. the PF in those 4 games is +18 total for an average of 4.5 points per game...again not much wiggle room, but at least its > than a FG in those wins.

Finally, I believe San Diego is a must win for this team for the season. Why? Crystal ball wise, I still think Ravens are a split at best, Cleveland might be a sweep, but I just am not sure that the Bengals won't sweep. I think there are some considerable matchup issues for the Steelers. I think we lose to the Chiefs, I think the team we beat but shouldn't is the Titans, I believe the team we shouldn't lose to but will is the Vikings so given that is a 3-4 record excluding San Diego. that means winning against the Chargers, the Steelers end the year with 4-4 record and a 9-7-1 final record, a loss and the Tomlin never had a losing season crowd can still croon at 8-8-1.

Thanks Brothervad

Lots to think about here.

I think we're generally getting killed in (Turnovers + Explosive Plays) too.

Defense is preventing points, but not turning the ball over. I think they have usually been very good at stopping the #1 thread of the opposing offense. But sometimes getting abused by the #2 or #3 threat.

Offense (before yesterday) had been pretty good at limiting turnovers. But sucks at generating explosive plays. Means that they have to be very efficient to score points. And we aren't. I think mostly because high efficiency probably requires really good / consistent OL play. Which we don't have.

I agree that failing to win vs. the Lions isn't a great omen for our playoff hopes.

[Steel Maniac]

A soft run defense that was gashed by a winless team on a day with inclement weather, and we still couldn't stop them knowing they were going to run all the time. That is the very definition of a problem defense.

I too was disturbed by that. Didn't see that happening going into the game. They pushed their will on us in that regard.

[NorthCoast]

A soft run defense that was gashed by a winless team on a day with inclement weather, and we still couldn't stop them knowing they were going to run all the time. That is the very definition of a problem defense.

Not a mystery. The Lions added a tackle and two TEs and ran it. The Steelers decided to take the day off from tackling. Would not be shocked to find YAC was a big chunk of rushing yards. But this is the same defense that kept Chubbs under 65 yards.
The inconsistency is a mystery.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

This is not a very good team. I won't even get into how subpar the coaching consistently is. That's a given at this point. From not having the team ready against scrub teams, to the game plan, no adjustments, insane play calls, etc. It is what it is, and that's never going to change.

QBs. Rudolph is trash. Plain and simple. If Ben misses another game we need to go with Haskins. He sucks too, but has a higher upside, plus can scramble a bit. Regardless, we need MAJOR upgrades at this position next year, cause none of these 3 guys are any good.

RB: Najee is a stud. Should be the clear centerpiece of this offense for a few years.

WRs: When Ray Ray Mcloud is leading your WR corps, you're in trouble. But really, what's the difference? JuJu sucks. Claypool is a few blunts away from being Martavis Bryant. Johnson is a #2, not a 1. Not good.

Line: Sorry, there's nobody good whatsoever. Green is pathetic

Defense: Cam. TJ. Haden. That's it. Nobody else is worth a damn, and aside from Minkah, nobody else would probably be a starter for even an average team. It's rare when you can 'notice' how bad an ILB is. But Bush stands out in that regard every game. Missing tackles, blowing assignments, getting burned, etc. Talk about a wasted pick. Speaking of wastes, can someone contact Missing Persons to see if they can locate Tuitt?

You hear a lot in other sports, 'keep these guys and move everyone else'. Well if that's the case for the Steelers, the list of 'holds' would be Najee, Diontae, Muth, Cam, TJ, Haden, Boswell, and the punter. Everyone else can go.

Actually the punter is very uneven and near the bottom of the league. Jordan Berry is doing better this year. We are 5-3-1 but we played a lot of weak teams and 3 games on the road. That right we played six games at home. Lot of tough road games ahead. We are an over rated 5-3-1 if there is such a thing.

[Sword]

A soft run defense that was gashed by a winless team on a day with inclement weather, and we still couldn't stop them knowing they were going to run all the time. That is the very definition of a problem defense.

and starts with the coaching staff…

[NorthCoast]

A soft run defense that was gashed by a winless team on a day with inclement weather, and we still couldn't stop them knowing they were going to run all the time. That is the very definition of a problem defense.

I think they decided that Hockenson would be the priority. He was averaging about 25% of DET targets and has almost 500 yds on the season. He had 1 target 0 receptions on the day. When the Steelers finally realized that the Lions weren't going to pass they committed more box help. In the 4th qtr and overtime, DET averaged 1.4 yds/att rushing.

Also, I know people are pointing the finger at Rudolph's 50 pass attempts as too many for the kind of day it was but keep in mind 12 of those were in overtime. (still the 62% pass rate was too much)