Steelers at Packers Game Day

[Northern_Blitz]

your the one pointing out percentages my man. I supplied an example of it happening in yesterday’s games.

I asked what the saints percentage was and it was near what the packers had.
Trying to point out what they needed at the time is irrelevant.
these seem to occur on weekly basis. Of course we won’t see them here in Pittsburgh if the wrong decisions keep getting made

what did they need on the 4th and 1 play vs Oakland?

cant pass too far behind the sticks on that play… right?

I'm only pointing out that the situations aren't comparable.

We needed 2 onside kicks, one TD, and one FG. In 2:53 minutes.

Last year, probability of successfully recovering an onside kick was 4.23%.

https://thegamehaus.com/nfl/inside-the-numbers-behind-why-the-onside-kick-needs-to-go/2021/02/19/#:~:text=In%20the%202020%2D2021%20NFL,the%20lowest%20in%20NFL%20history.

My understanding is that it's actually lower if the receiving team knows that it's coming.

But using just the average number for OSKs, we're down to a little under a 0.2% chance of success before trying to incorporate whatever our success rate of having a TD drive followed by a FG drive OR a FG drive followed by a TD drive are.

This again brings us back to the main point: let's not pretend that this is what determined the outcome of the game.

If it was one score, I think the OSK is for sure the right call.

Even at 2 scores it's a reasonable thing. What the hell, we're basically going to lose anyway. Might as well shoot for the moon.


I think kicking off is reasonable too (probably doesn't practically change expected win% vs the onside kick before you know the outcome of the play). In this situation, you need a 3 and out (we got a 7 and out), a TD or a FG (we got a garbage time INT that I don't blame the QB for), an onside kick (didn't get to this) and then a TD or FG (whichever we didn't get the time before)*.

In that case (or the onside kick case), I'd probably argue for a quick FG on the first offensive possession, then try to get the sideline a couple times before throwing it to the end zone and hope one of our guys who are supposed to be good at contested catches comes down with it (or as the Steelers call it: a dump 5 yards behind the line )

I think we mainly lost because because we didn't score enough (e.g. missed the completions to Juju) and we didn't stop them from scoring enough (e.g. the completions to Cobb). And because they called back the TD we need by a phase other than the O in order to be competitive in a game.

The decision for that onside kick (and the next one if the first was successful and led to points) have very, very little to do with the outcome.

[Northern_Blitz]

your the one pointing out percentages my man. I supplied an example of it happening in yesterday’s games.

I asked what the saints percentage was and it was near what the packers had.
Trying to point out what they needed at the time is irrelevant.
these seem to occur on weekly basis. Of course we won’t see them here in Pittsburgh if the wrong decisions keep getting made

what did they need on the 4th and 1 play vs Oakland?

cant pass too far behind the sticks on that play… right?

Don't you find it ironic that a post complaining about our clock management neglects that the time left on the clock when the win% were similar was 4.5 - 5 minutes different (7+ minutes vs. 2+ minutes)?

And the Giants didn't need 2 OSKs to have a hope of winning.

So saying they're the same situation is a bit of a stretch.

[NJ-STEELER]

I'm only pointing out that the situations aren't comparable.

We needed 2 onside kicks, one TD, and one FG. In 2:53 minutes.

Last year, probability of successfully recovering an onside kick was 4.23%.

https://thegamehaus.com/nfl/inside-the-numbers-behind-why-the-onside-kick-needs-to-go/2021/02/19/#:~:text=In%20the%202020%2D2021%20NFL,the%20lowest%20in%20NFL%20history.

My understanding is that it's actually lower if the receiving team knows that it's coming.

But using just the average number for OSKs, we're down to a little under a 0.2% chance of success before trying to incorporate whatever our success rate of having a TD drive followed by a FG drive OR a FG drive followed by a TD drive are.

This again brings us back to the main point: let's not pretend that this is what determined the outcome of the game.

If it was one score, I think the OSK is for sure the right call.

Even at 2 scores it's a reasonable thing. What the hell, we're basically going to lose anyway. Might as well shoot for the moon.


I think kicking off is reasonable too (probably doesn't practically change expected win% vs the onside kick before you know the outcome of the play). In this situation, you need a 3 and out (we got a 7 and out), a TD or a FG (we got a garbage time INT that I don't blame the QB for), an onside kick (didn't get to this) and then a TD or FG (whichever we didn't get the time before)*.

In that case (or the onside kick case), I'd probably argue for a quick FG on the first offensive possession, then try to get the sideline a couple times before throwing it to the end zone and hope one of our guys who are supposed to be good at contested catches comes down with it (or as the Steelers call it: a dump 5 yards behind the line )

I think we mainly lost because because we didn't score enough (e.g. missed the completions to Juju) and we didn't stop them from scoring enough (e.g. the completions to Cobb). And because they called back the TD we need by a phase other than the O in order to be competitive in a game.

The decision for that onside kick (and the next one if the first was successful and led to points) have very, very little to do with the outcome.

here's the thing. aren't all those %s your supplying regarding on side kicks etc already calculated in the % to win??

we know its almost impossible to come back and win in these situations. just like it was for the giants yesterday (5%) according to the numbers you posted

just like it was for us in that cincy playoff game. we needed a turnover and miraculously got a fumble from their RB. what were our chances of winning that game?

just like it was for cleveland on opening day a few years back. their win% or tie% must have been really low since we had the ball, a 14 point lead (21-7) with 8 minutes to go in the game. who would have thought cleveland could score 2 TDs in 8 minutes when they scored only 7 in the first 52 minutes of the game.


the chances for winning those game were extremely low....but yet they keep happening