Watt's Up with T.J.?

[Sword]

Why? TP signed his extension just before boarding the flight to Baltimore. Also no one is considering the 17 game schedule. Does anyone really expect Watt would play all 17 this season? The first game might be a write-off for all we know. And what if Watt is asking for more than the Steelers are willing to pay? It's a stalemate, and he goes to FA next season or gets franchised.

You are going to be ready to play with, this already have been done then not. Sure, he will play all 17 games unless he gets hurt....You cannot have that attitude of first game will be a write-off. Pay him...He is one of those players you keep!!!

[papillon]

So, I have a question, since rookie deals have come up during this thread. Lets say Watt was certain that he was going to be a star in the NFL when he was a senior at Wisconsin. Would he be able to "not" declare for the draft, sit out a year and be a UDFA at 23 years old and negotiate his first contract with any team that he chooses? He doesn't need to enter the draft, just take a year off from football, stay in shape and then pick some teams and negotiate your best deal. Teams were handing out millions of dollars like it was candy a decade ago (maybe not even that long) to rookies (prior to current CBA). There is a team out there that would have paid him after sitting a year and probably paid him more than 14 million with 9 guaranteed. He would have lost out on 1.6 million (First year's wages) for the chance to negotiate a deal worth more than 14 million total and he would have control over the length of the contract as well.

Pappy

[feltdizz]

Why? TP signed his extension just before boarding the flight to Baltimore. Also no one is considering the 17 game schedule. Does anyone really expect Watt would play all 17 this season? The first game might be a write-off for all we know. And what if Watt is asking for more than the Steelers are willing to pay? It's a stalemate, and he goes to FA next season or gets franchised.

umm.. yeah, I expected Watt to play every game unless we had our playoff spot locked up and he sat the last week.

Definitely expected our best defensive best ready week 1.

You predicated it would be signed and announced over the weekend so I think you expected him to play this week too.

[Northern_Blitz]

So, I have a question, since rookie deals have come up during this thread. Lets say Watt was certain that he was going to be a star in the NFL when he was a senior at Wisconsin. Would he be able to "not" declare for the draft, sit out a year and be a UDFA at 23 years old and negotiate his first contract with any team that he chooses? He doesn't need to enter the draft, just take a year off from football, stay in shape and then pick some teams and negotiate your best deal. Teams were handing out millions of dollars like it was candy a decade ago (maybe not even that long) to rookies (prior to current CBA). There is a team out there that would have paid him after sitting a year and probably paid him more than 14 million with 9 guaranteed. He would have lost out on 1.6 million (First year's wages) for the chance to negotiate a deal worth more than 14 million total and he would have control over the length of the contract as well.

Pappy

This is an interesting question.

Not sure if you can avoid the draft this way in the NFL.

But I think you probably have to be in a draft before you sign as a UFA? That would be sensible, but maybe they haven't had anyone do this yet so it's not in writing?

I think there is a work around like this in the NHL for NCAA players. I think players that go through the Canadian minor system have to go to the draft. But I think NCAA players can bypass the draft (maybe only if they play 4 years?).

Jimmy Vesey and Alex Kerfoot are guys that I think took this path.

I don't think this has been "fixed" by a CBA yet.

But I think it only works in the NHL because it's age based. And guys who play in the NCAA for 4 years are as old as guys who get drafted from the CHL and play through their entry level deal.

Maybe the NFL has a rule like this? The youngest NFL player drafted was 19. Maybe you can't be a UFA until you're 23 unless you went through the draft?

[NorthCoast]

There is more pressure on Watt to sign than on the team to get him signed. Tomlin said Ingram has looked 'better than expected', and Highsmith is looking strong. Then you have Jones whose 'ceiling may be higher" than some expect. And Watt was neutralized in the playoffs with a max protect scheme by the Browns. This team can move on without Watt maybe at the cost of a few sacks but in a whole lot better financial shape.

[NorthCoast]

umm.. yeah, I expected Watt to play every game unless we had our playoff spot locked up and he sat the last week.

Definitely expected our best defensive best ready week 1.

You predicated it would be signed and announced over the weekend so I think you expected him to play this week too.

I do expect him to play. But it's not completely out of the question that he doesn't. Tomlin refused to give a participation deadline for Watt. Meanwhile Tomlin says Watt has physique and unique skills similar to an Aaron Donald. And guys with these unique skills do not need a lot of prep to perform at maximum. I agree with this claim. Watt doesn't strike me as a guy that would spend the off-season in a lazy boy. He'll be ready even if he signs Saturday afternoon. And even at that, an 80% Watt is better than probably any other LB on the Steelers.

[papillon]

This is an interesting question.

Not sure if you can avoid the draft this way in the NFL.

But I think you probably have to be in a draft before you sign as a UFA? That would be sensible, but maybe they haven't had anyone do this yet so it's not in writing?

I think there is a work around like this in the NHL for NCAA players. I think players that go through the Canadian minor system have to go to the draft. But I think NCAA players can bypass the draft (maybe only if they play 4 years?).

Jimmy Vesey and Alex Kerfoot are guys that I think took this path.

I don't think this has been "fixed" by a CBA yet.

But I think it only works in the NHL because it's age based. And guys who play in the NCAA for 4 years are as old as guys who get drafted from the CHL and play through their entry level deal.

Maybe the NFL has a rule like this? The youngest NFL player drafted was 19. Maybe you can't be a UFA until you're 23 unless you went through the draft?

If I recall correctly, John Elway was going to play baseball rather than be drafted by the Baltimore Colts but in the end he didn't have to make good on the threat. Had he played baseball for a year, I'm not sure what would have happened, technically, he would have been in a draft, just not an NFL draft. Eli Manning was threatening to not play for a year as well but I'm not certain what his options would have been had he taken that path.

I found this paragraph in article from 2004

"Through agent Tom Condon, Manning and his father, former NFL quarterback Archie Manning, have told the Chargers that if they use the top pick Saturday on him, their No. 1 pick will sit out the season and enter the 2005 draft."

So, it seems that being drafted and sitting out you have to re-enter via the draft. Still unclear what happens if you just don't declare for the draft at all and sit a year.

Pappy

[Northern_Blitz]

If I recall correctly, John Elway was going to play baseball rather than be drafted by the Baltimore Colts but in the end he didn't have to make good on the threat. Had he played baseball for a year, I'm not sure what would have happened, technically, he would have been in a draft, just not an NFL draft. Eli Manning was threatening to not play for a year as well but I'm not certain what his options would have been had he taken that path.

I found this paragraph in article from 2004



So, it seems that being drafted and sitting out you have to re-enter via the draft. Still unclear what happens if you just don't declare for the draft at all and sit a year.

Pappy

I remembered that Eli didn't want to play there, but I had forgotten / never heard about that threat to sit out and get re-drafted. Imagine the outrage fans would have had. That's like LeBron "I made this TV show so I can rub it in your face that I'm leaving your city" level of outrage.

This does seem like the kind of thing that owners would write out of the next CBA, but it's got to be so rare that maybe they don't want to give up whatever concession would be required to do it?

[feltdizz]

I remembered that Eli didn't want to play there, but I had forgotten / never heard about that threat to sit out and get re-drafted. Imagine the outrage fans would have had. That's like LeBron "I made this TV show so I can rub it in your face that I'm leaving your city" level of outrage.

This does seem like the kind of thing that owners would write out of the next CBA, but it's got to be so rare that maybe they don't want to give up whatever concession would be required to do it?

I never understood the hate for Lebron’s announcement.

People wanted to know and tuned in..

yet they were upset that he did it.

I know it was mostly frustration for leaving Cleveland but it was highly anticipated and good theatre.

[Northern_Blitz]

I never understood the hate for Lebron’s announcement.

People wanted to know and tuned in..

yet they were upset that he did it.

I know it was mostly frustration for leaving Cleveland but it was highly anticipated and good theatre.

I thought it was kind of funny because I wasn't emotionally involved.

I assumed that making a TV show out of it meant he was staying. Because making you ditching a franchise into a reality TV show is obviously one of the best possible ways to piss off a fan base. I think it's pretty easy to understand how that would piss Cleveland fans off.

The fact that it was Cleveland also made it funny.

But, I respect that Lebron made a great business decision. Make that extra $$$ while you can. And I'm sure he got paid for doing the TV show.

[Northern_Blitz]

Joel Corry's (former NFL agent) Inside the Cap podcast talks about Watt and the negotiations (starting at ~ 12 min mark if you're running it at regular speed).

Not up on his website yet (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...y/id1523336993), but available in my feed on my phone.

Basically, he thinks that if we don't change the cap structure:
(1) largest non-QB SB ever (predicts ~ $40M)
(2) front loaded so that more of the contract is paid out early in the deal vs. late.

As long as the AAV is about the same, I don't think these are bad conditions.

The first means that we can't reduce Watt's cap hit this year. But I don't want to. We're already under the cap and I don't think our roster is going to get any better than it is (outside of little things...and I think we already have some cap space for that).

The second just means that there's more money sitting around in salary in the next few years for use to restructure and kick down the road. Or even better, we don't kick it down the road and free up future cap space...because we probably won't be all that competitive next year with no Ben and the dead money we've already put into next year from the dummy contracts we've signed.

[feltdizz]

Bleacherreport:

I’m hearing the negotiations are getting ugly.

Per NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala (https://twitter.com/AKinkhabwala/status/1435269798729031682), the Steelers' longstanding tactic of not including contract guarantees after the first year of a deal is "threatening to sink" talks with Watt.

<span style="color:#ffd700;"><span style="font-size: 16px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;Proxima Nova&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...g-negotiations

[feltdizz]

I blame JJ Watt. I’m sure TJ has seen his brother cash in with the Texans and AZ and wants a similar contract.

We aren’t the Texans tho.. thankfully.

[NorthCoast]

Bleacherreport:

I’m hearing the negotiations are getting ugly.

Per NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala (https://twitter.com/AKinkhabwala/status/1435269798729031682), the Steelers' longstanding tactic of not including contract guarantees after the first year of a deal is "threatening to sink" talks with Watt.

<span style="color:#ffd700;"><span style="font-size: 16px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;Proxima Nova&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...g-negotiations

If the Steelers don't do it for a franchise QB, there's no way in Hades they should do it for a LB. Beyond that, it's a precedent setting decision. Next up, Fitz. Then JJSS, then eventually Harris. No thanks.

Only PIT, GB, and AZ? do not guarantee beyond the first year of a contract. But a roster bonus is an easy threshold for a player like Watt.

EDIT: part of my past job was making decisions on multi -hundred thousand dollar claims by our customers. It was always drilled into us about understanding precedent setting decisions. Once opened it can never be shut. The courts sight precedence every time.

[Eich]

If the Steelers don't do it for a franchise QB, there's no way in Hades they should do it for a LB. Beyond that, it's a precedent setting decision. Next up, Fitz. Then JJSS, then eventually Harris. No thanks.

Only PIT, GB, and AZ? do not guarantee beyond the first year of a contract. But a roster bonus is an easy threshold for a player like Watt.

EDIT: part of my past job was making decisions on multi -hundred thousand dollar claims by our customers. It was always drilled into us about understanding precedent setting decisions. Once opened it can never be shut. The courts sight precedence every time.

While I understand the Steelers resistance in setting a precedent for itself, other teams in the league are setting the precedent for us. Eventually, we'll have to start doing what other teams are doing if we want to keep top talent.

It's a balancing act. The player wants to protect himself in case he has a season/career-ending injury and can no longer earn pay. And the team wants to protect itself from that too, where dead money sticks around without player productivity.

Maybe agreements need something in them that if the player has a season or career-ending injury, his guaranteed money doesn't count against the team's cap for that season (or career).