Watt's Up with T.J.?

[papillon]

This is what scares me Pap. We haven’t won any playoff games with Watt on a rookie deal and now we are paying him $28 mill.

I know he has stats but its not like our D dragged us to an AFCCG last year.. or
even a playoff win.

Dion Dawkins is the 21st ranked tackle in the NFL according to PFF, so there are 64 tackles, Dawkins is in the top third of all starting tackles. Looking forward to the game, to see how Ben looks, the oline, Najee and now TJ.

Pappy

[Northern_Blitz]

This is what scares me Pap. We haven’t won any playoff games with Watt on a rookie deal and now we are paying him $28 mill.

I know he has stats but its not like our D dragged us to an AFCCG last year.. or
even a playoff win.

I think people strongly underestimate the role of chance in single elimination sporting events. Especially for stats like sacks which happen <1/game even for elite players.

Me too sometimes. On the day before the Jags playoff game, who would have predicted that we would have had 9 turnovers in our next 2 playoff games (2 fumbles, 5 ints, 2 ToD). On some level that's execution. But bad luck plays a pretty big role in that too.

[BURGH86STEEL]

Dion Dawkins is the 21st ranked tackle in the NFL according to PFF, so there are 64 tackles, Dawkins is in the top third of all starting tackles. Looking forward to the game, to see how Ben looks, the oline, Najee and now TJ.

Pappy

TJ will be under more intense scrutiny week in and week out making that type of coin. The Steelers are on the hook for at least 4 years and 80 million regardless of whatever happens. TJ will either deliver or he won't.

Will the Steelers be able to build a Superbowl contender around TJ considering all the factors necessary to build a consistent winner?
Only time will tell.

[BURGH86STEEL]

I think people strongly underestimate the role of chance in single elimination sporting events. Especially for stats like sacks which happen <1/game even for elite players.

Me too sometimes. On the day before the Jags playoff game, who would have predicted that we would have had 9 turnovers in our next 2 playoff games (2 fumbles, 5 ints, 2 ToD). On some level that's execution. But bad luck plays a pretty big role in that too.

Studies suggest that turnovers and the opportunities for turnovers are unpredictable. Studies also say that it's better to take care of the football on the offensive side of the ball and for defenses to take the ball away. Do offenses have more control over turnovers? This probability is probably higher.

The Cowboys blew last night's game because they made crucial mistakes and their FG kicker had a bad game.

Bucs and Cowboys made their share of mistakes and quality plays.

Bucs had some luck with the "no call" on offensive PI to seal the game with a FG attempt.

Bucs kicker money. Cowboys kicker not so much. That was probably the difference in the out come of the game.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I think people strongly underestimate the role of chance in single elimination sporting events. Especially for stats like sacks which happen <1/game even for elite players.

Me too sometimes. On the day before the Jags playoff game, who would have predicted that we would have had 9 turnovers in our next 2 playoff games (2 fumbles, 5 ints, 2 ToD). On some level that's execution. But bad luck plays a pretty big role in that too.

Not just single elimination. I pointed out months ago, after the NBA playoffs, Giannis came within a Durant toe on the line to being a career playoff bust. Instead, he is now talked about as an all-time great. The point is that these type of narratives are best looked at in retrospect. It in no way should be used to effectively predict the future. Mainly because the sample size is statistically insignificant.