Predicting AFCN 2020

[feltdizz]

As great as LJ looked this year, I would not be surprised if we don't see a repeat. His success is largely due to him having a non-traditional style and skillset. He also has an offense tailored around that - great coaching by the Ravens staff.

In the past, there have been several QBs who have had success playing the game differently. In time, defenses have found their weaknesses and adjusted gameplans to force them into a less comfortable situation. As the weakness gets exposed, the young QB often loses patience and composure, and makes mistakes that he was not making when allowed to play his own game.

I'm not saying this will be the case, but history shows that a QB who is not capable of consistently dropping back and making all the throws will eventually be solved. Let's see if teams can now figure out a way to force him into that, and if he can do it.

Russell Wilson is a prime example of a mobile QB who still plays a non traditional style of football.

People will suggest he is a drop back passer but he still thrives off RPO, scrambling and extending plays.

I’m not suggesting LJ will be as efficient as Russell Wilson in the passing game but I think part of the reason RW is so efficient is because he is threat in the running game and he makes plays with his feet.

LJ still has work to do but his passer rating was over 100 for a reason last year. I just find it funny how a few losses are amplified yet all his wins are downplayed by his detractors.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Russell Wilson is a prime example of a mobile QB who still plays a non traditional style of football.

People will suggest he is a drop back passer but he still thrives off RPO, scrambling and extending plays.

I’m not suggesting LJ will be as efficient as Russell Wilson in the passing game but I think part of the reason RW is so efficient is because he is threat in the running game and he makes plays with his feet.

LJ still has work to do but his passer rating was over 100 for a reason last year. I just find it funny how a few losses are amplified yet all his wins are downplayed by his detractors.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a detractor. I'm more of an observer. I'm not predicting that he will fall, but still in wait and see mode. I don't think that it is as much a foregone conclusion that LJ will repeat his season as it is say for Mahomes and Wilson to stay at the level they are at. The reason is that both have shown that they can throw from the pocket when needed, as well as make plays with their legs. If LJ can do that then he should be able to surpass anything that Wilson has done because he is much more dangerous with his legs than RW. I don't think that he has to turn into a drop back passer, he just has to show that he can when necessary.

FWIW, if he does regress I will not come back here telling anybody "I told you so". As I said it is not a prediction, it is a historical observation. While there are exceptions (like Mahomes, Wilson, Steve Young) it has been more common that the QB has to adjust his game or league catches up.

[Steel Maniac]

In the past, there have been several QBs who have had success playing the game differently. In time, defenses have found their weaknesses and adjusted gameplans to force them into a less comfortable situation. As the weakness gets exposed, the young QB often loses patience and composure, and makes mistakes that he was not making when allowed to play his own game.

I'm not saying this will be the case, but history shows that a QB who is not capable of consistently dropping back and making all the throws will eventually be solved. Let's see if teams can now figure out a way to force him into that, and if he can do it.

Thank you. Which is what I've been saying.

Vince Young
Michael Vick
Tim Tebow
RG3

All QB's who really couldn't read defenses from the pocket but relied on their legs to bail them out. QB's like that don't succeed long term. Young, Vick and RG# all won awards to (just like LJ) and were lauded as " QB's that are going to change the position".

Titans, Chargers and Steelers defenses have already shown that he's not a legit passer. More teams will look at the films and do the same to him. Coupled, ..with the fact that he runs too much and the injury factor will also come into play. Combine all those things and he comes back down to earth this year in a big time way. But because of the defense looking to be super, they will always be in the game; Similar to the 2010 year Tebow had because all he did was score a touchdown a game while the Broncos defense kept the score low.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Thank you. Which is what I've been saying.

Vince Young
Michael Vick
Tim Tebow
RG3

All QB's who really couldn't read defenses from the pocket but relied on their legs to bail them out. QB's like that don't succeed long term. Young, Vick and RG# all won awards to (just like LJ) and were lauded as " QB's that are going to change the position".

Titans, Chargers and Steelers defenses have already shown that he's not a legit passer. More teams will look at the films and do the same to him. Coupled, ..with the fact that he runs too much and the injury factor will also come into play. Combine all those things and he comes back down to earth this year in a big time way. But because of the defense looking to be super, they will always be in the game; Similar to the 2010 year Tebow had because all he did was score a touchdown a game while the Broncos defense kept the score low.

Everything you say is valid and possible, the difference is that I don't think that the story has been written yet. It's the classic race to build the better mousetrap. So far, LJ and the Ravens are ahead. Defensive staffs around the league are going back to the drawing board, however, so is the Ravens' offensive staff.

The DCs around the league will try to force him to stay in the pocket and prove he can make tough throws. Even if they are able to scheme a way for that to happen, and if they have the personnel to make it happen, it has not yet been determined whether or not the kid will be able to adjust his game and make those throws. We will have to wait and see.

[Northern_Blitz]

As great as LJ looked this year, I would not be surprised if we don't see a repeat. His success is largely due to him having a non-traditional style and skillset. He also has an offense tailored around that - great coaching by the Ravens staff.

In the past, there have been several QBs who have had success playing the game differently. In time, defenses have found their weaknesses and adjusted gameplans to force them into a less comfortable situation. As the weakness gets exposed, the young QB often loses patience and composure, and makes mistakes that he was not making when allowed to play his own game.

I'm not saying this will be the case, but history shows that a QB who is not capable of consistently dropping back and making all the throws will eventually be solved. Let's see if teams can now figure out a way to force him into that, and if he can do it.

This is why it's always good to bet on regression to the mean.

I think he'll still be good, but won't have another MVP season. It's hard to string those kinds of seasons together for the reasons you've stated (and because at least part of it is play vs. expectations and his expectations will be sky high going into next season).

[feltdizz]

Everything you say is valid and possible, the difference is that I don't think that the story has been written yet. It's the classic race to build the better mousetrap. So far, LJ and the Ravens are ahead. Defensive staffs around the league are going back to the drawing board, however, so is the Ravens' offensive staff.

The DCs around the league will try to force him to stay in the pocket and prove he can make tough throws. Even if they are able to scheme a way for that to happen, and if they have the personnel to make it happen, it has not yet been determined whether or not the kid will be able to adjust his game and make those throws. We will have to wait and see.

Exactly. Trying to predict that next year is the year everyone figured him out is hilarious. We won’t know until it happens. Predictions are fine but trying to pass them off as facts doesn’t work.

I don’t think LJ will another MVP award in the next few years but that’s by design. Rarely does a QB win back to back or even twice in a career. He won it last year and you can’t take that away from him by saying “trust me, next year is the year”

Injury is our only hope in the short term and I’m talking league wise because I think our D is built to defend him.

[feltdizz]

This is why it's always good to bet on regression to the mean.

I think he'll still be good, but won't have another MVP season. It's hard to string those kinds of seasons together for the reasons you've stated (and because at least part of it is play vs. expectations and his expectations will be sky high going into next season).

It’s not like LJ just signed a huge contract. He doesn’t have to have another MVP season to meet expectations.

I think what they want to see is a little less running and a few more downfield completions. However, as long as they let him play his game they should be in a favorable position.

[whatever]

And he's right back to being a position coach, not even an OC.

Like I said, he wasn't given the chance to succeed. I'm sure that is one of the reasons he is a position coach now.
He should have been retained for several years.... minimum.

[Northern_Blitz]

It’s not like LJ just signed a huge contract. He doesn’t have to have another MVP season to meet expectations.

I think what they want to see is a little less running and a few more downfield completions. However, as long as they let him play his game they should be in a favorable position.

Yep.

I think he'll still be good, but not as good as last year. Because that generally doesn't happen in the NFL.

[whisper]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a detractor. I'm more of an observer. I'm not predicting that he will fall, but still in wait and see mode. I don't think that it is as much a foregone conclusion that LJ will repeat his season as it is say for Mahomes and Wilson to stay at the level they are at. The reason is that both have shown that they can throw from the pocket when needed, as well as make plays with their legs. If LJ can do that then he should be able to surpass anything that Wilson has done because he is much more dangerous with his legs than RW. I don't think that he has to turn into a drop back passer, he just has to show that he can when necessary.

FWIW, if he does regress I will not come back here telling anybody "I told you so". As I said it is not a prediction, it is a historical observation. While there are exceptions (like Mahomes, Wilson, Steve Young) it has been more common that the QB has to adjust his game or league catches up.

I see LJ more like a Randall Cunningham, who at one time, was considered the most dangerous NFL player in the league. LJ is much quicker and more slippery, but where I see the resemblance is both RC and LJ only need to connect of a few deep passes and game and it's enough to win, with their D and other weapons. RC played for 16 seasons, so he proved his style of play could indeed feature longevity, although in his later years in MN he became more of a pocket passer. But all LJ needs is a few passes downfield a game and it will be enough to rack up wins.

[Steel Maniac]

I see LJ more like a Randall Cunningham, who at one time, was considered the most dangerous NFL player in the league. LJ is much quicker and more slippery, but where I see the resemblance is both RC and LJ only need to connect of a few deep passes and game and it's enough to win, with their D and other weapons. RC played for 16 seasons, so he proved his style of play could indeed feature longevity, although in his later years in MN he became more of a pocket passer. But all LJ needs is a few passes downfield a game and it will be enough to rack up wins.

But the reason he was out of football was that running around style was not conducive to winning at the highest level and the league caught up to that style ( sound familiar about a QB who is 0-2 in the playoffs right now hmmm?). He came back a better QB because he could pass. 1998 he only ran for about 130 yards that entire season. He was older, couldn't do all that running around and it forced him to be a productive , pocket passer. And he was. Hell of a season he had in 1998. Should have beaten the Falcons in that NFC championship game.

[NorthCoast]

The weakest part of Jackson's game is throwing deep (>15 yds) to the left side of the field. His completion rate is more than 10% lower than the NFL average to that part of the field (tried to upload a graphic but it wouldn't go). Pressure him from his right side and force him to throw left. Steelers have an advantage because Haden locks down the right side (and in reality Nelson is nearly his equal on the left side). On the other hand, Jackson's short passing game is on par with the NFL's best.

[Steel Maniac]

The weakest part of Jackson's game is throwing deep (>15 yds) to the left side of the field. His completion rate is more than 10% lower than the NFL average to that part of the field (tried to upload a graphic but it wouldn't go). Pressure him from his right side and force him to throw left. Steelers have an advantage because Haden locks down the right side (and in reality Nelson is nearly his equal on the left side). On the other hand, Jackson's short passing game is on par with the NFL's best.

I can’t wait for the season to start. I think we are going to surprise the league at how good we are.

[whisper]

But the reason he was out of football was that running around style was not conducive to winning at the highest level and the league caught up to that style ( sound familiar about a QB who is 0-2 in the playoffs right now hmmm?). He came back a better QB because he could pass. 1998 he only ran for about 130 yards that entire season. He was older, couldn't do all that running around and it forced him to be a productive , pocket passer. And he was. Hell of a season he had in 1998. Should have beaten the Falcons in that NFC championship game.

I was thinking same thing: That was a shocking loss. Didn't Anderson miss his only kick all season? Randall did have a fantastic season.

[whisper]

The weakest part of Jackson's game is throwing deep (>15 yds) to the left side of the field. His completion rate is more than 10% lower than the NFL average to that part of the field (tried to upload a graphic but it wouldn't go). Pressure him from his right side and force him to throw left. Steelers have an advantage because Haden locks down the right side (and in reality Nelson is nearly his equal on the left side). On the other hand, Jackson's short passing game is on par with the NFL's best.

Maybe my memory is skewed, but I recall him throwing some ropes downfield, and flicked it like a dart, dead on the money.