Realistically....what can we get for AB?

[RuthlessBurgher]

Do we get a set bonus for having all the Edmunds'?

If we're collecting families, I vote we go for the Watt's next.

It's like Monopoly...once we have all three, we can start building houses, then eventually hotels.

[Northern_Blitz]

To Buffalo for Tremaine Edmunds straight up and I'd be very happy

Do we get a set bonus for having all the Edmunds'?

If we're collecting families, I vote we go for the Watt's next.

[Oviedo]

I would still send him to Buffalo just because no one wants to play in Buffalo

To Buffalo for Tremaine Edmunds straight up and I'd be very happy

[fordfixer]

I would still send him to Buffalo just because no one wants to play in Buffalo

[flippy]

raiders have 3 this year. packers have 2 this year and 2 next.

still, i'd rather swap for an HOF bound patrick peterson...

I'm with you, but given the relative value of the position, I think we'd have to give them something else + AB to make that swap fair.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

The NFL draft dates back to 1936 which should puts us at 80+ drafts. There have been just over 100 HOFers drafted in the 1st round. That means 1.25 players drafted in the first round end up HOFers. The league started out with 9 teams in '36 and has grown to 32 teams today, so on average ~20 teams have drafted so 1.25 / 20 = 6%+. We can round up to 10% just to make the numbers even.

That's 3 guys in a current draft class. As a sanity check, I just looked up an older draft of 1990 and found 3, so it's a reasonable back of the envelope calculation.

Now, we know AB is going to end up in the HOF. So for us to get a fair trade, we should get a HOF talent in return. So as a starting point, we'd need 10 1st round picks to have a good chance of drafting another future HOFer. Sounds like a ridiculous ask, but that's where I'd start in my thinking.

We've also gotten 9 years out of AB. Could he be on the decline? Possibly. By NFL historic standards - probably. However Jerry Rice was an All Pro in seasons 10-12 and there's no indication that AB is ready to regress. No reason he won't be an All Pro the next 3 seasons. Looking at other HOFers in years 10-12, likely he'll probably end up with 1 All Pro season in there. We got 4 of his All Pro seasons, so we got about 80% of his best years. But he's also really good, and if I was selling him, I'd argue there's no reason he won't be an All Pro for the next 4 years and so we got 50% of him. So even if he's 50%-80% used up, then we'd need at least 2-5 1st round picks. And we should want more given that we've got a $21m cap hit.

2-5 first round picks would be fair imho. But our odds of finding a comparable player in the draft aren't a fair trade, so to take some risk out, we've got to get a player. And a good player that has upside to even out the risk of not hitting a HOFer with the 1st round pick(s).

While it might seem like a lot, I could see how someone could think it fair to trade 2 1st round picks + a player + potentially more picks to make the swap fair. Take away the drama, and someone else can't give us enough to guarantee we're getting a fair trade here.

raiders have 3 this year. packers have 2 this year and 2 next.

still, i'd rather swap for an HOF bound patrick peterson...

[Northern_Blitz]

Bottom line with all of this, when is the earliest a move could happen? Early March?

If it's going to happen, I think it will go down between the beginning of the league year and AB getting his roster bonus. That's something like a 5 day window in the middle of March.

[flippy]

The NFL draft dates back to 1936 which should puts us at 80+ drafts. There have been just over 100 HOFers drafted in the 1st round. That means 1.25 players drafted in the first round end up HOFers. The league started out with 9 teams in '36 and has grown to 32 teams today, so on average ~20 teams have drafted so 1.25 / 20 = 6%+. We can round up to 10% just to make the numbers even.

That's 3 guys in a current draft class. As a sanity check, I just looked up an older draft of 1990 and found 3, so it's a reasonable back of the envelope calculation.

Now, we know AB is going to end up in the HOF. So for us to get a fair trade, we should get a HOF talent in return. So as a starting point, we'd need 10 1st round picks to have a good chance of drafting another future HOFer. Sounds like a ridiculous ask, but that's where I'd start in my thinking.

We've also gotten 9 years out of AB. Could he be on the decline? Possibly. By NFL historic standards - probably. However Jerry Rice was an All Pro in seasons 10-12 and there's no indication that AB is ready to regress. No reason he won't be an All Pro the next 3 seasons. Looking at other HOFers in years 10-12, likely he'll probably end up with 1 All Pro season in there. We got 4 of his All Pro seasons, so we got about 80% of his best years. But he's also really good, and if I was selling him, I'd argue there's no reason he won't be an All Pro for the next 4 years and so we got 50% of him. So even if he's 50%-80% used up, then we'd need at least 2-5 1st round picks. And we should want more given that we've got a $21m cap hit.

2-5 first round picks would be fair imho. But our odds of finding a comparable player in the draft aren't a fair trade, so to take some risk out, we've got to get a player. And a good player that has upside to even out the risk of not hitting a HOFer with the 1st round pick(s).

While it might seem like a lot, I could see how someone could think it fair to trade 2 1st round picks + a player + potentially more picks to make the swap fair. Take away the drama, and someone else can't give us enough to guarantee we're getting a fair trade here.

[AzStillers1989]

Bottom line with all of this, when is the earliest a move could happen? Early March?

[SteelerOfDeVille]

What about AB, Artie Burns, and 1.20 for Tre'Davious White and 1.10?

White's the one that I keep looking at, too. But, I don't see them taking that deal. White's still on a rookie deal, and there's some value in being cheap, but, playing at a high level. IMO, it'd be hard enough to do AB for White straight up. But, taking their #1 this year - too much sting.

I would think AB + Burns for White and a mid-round pick might be doable
Or
AB for Patrick Peterson straight up
and
there's always Jax's DBs, but, they are already at odds due to $$. I don't see that being the right trade

Now that i've said my "dream" trades, I say Raiders & Cardinals are front runners.

I don't see them trading him to a contender.

So, teams like the Colts (who have a ton of cap, but, are too good) and Packers (who have a ton of picks) are unlikely. Though the pack owing four #1's in the next two drafts could sway them, if they wanted to give them up. They are an NFC team, so that softesn the blow. While I don't see GB giving up 2 of 4 picks, I could see a 1 this year and a 3rd next year.

SF is a bubble team with Garrapolo - give him AB, and they're a playoff team. However, being in the NFC, it's possible. But, it wouldn't be because AB wants it. It would be because they made the best offer. Which i don't see happening. (their 1st is too high and i don't think a 2nd is enough).

So, why Oakland or AZ? Well, Patrick Peterson was disgruntled and that seems to be a fairly even swap which could help AZ's young QBs. As for Oakland, Gruden loves him some AB. His work ethic could teach his young WR to work, the *right* way. That alone would be worth the investment.

[Northern_Blitz]

What about AB, Artie Burns, and 1.20 for Tre'Davious White and 1.10?

I wouldn't take that if I was on the other side of the deal.

As a GM, I'd believe that 1.10 would net me an impact player who's cost controlled for 5 years.

I don't know what the QB class looks like next year, but we set our franchise up for at least 15 years of great performance with a pick at 1.11 in 2004. I think that the value of draft picks increases exponentially the closer you get to 1.1.

But, there are always crazy teams so you never know.

[RuthlessBurgher]

agreed. and if he balks, then, ya get someone in the draft

on topic, anyone thing Buffalo would part with their first (~10 overall)? While I'd really prefer a trade for a young CB, I'd take a top 10 pick for him... with 2 firsts, I'd bolster the defense (ILB, OLB).

What about AB, Artie Burns, and 1.20 for Tre'Davious White and 1.10?

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Perhaps, but not a gamble I'm willing to take for $9M+. As I mentioned earlier, I'm happy bringing him back on a 3 year deal at a price point that allows him to start, but does not tie the wrists if he is a backup or rotation player.

agreed. and if he balks, then, ya get someone in the draft

on topic, anyone thing Buffalo would part with their first (~10 overall)? While I'd really prefer a trade for a young CB, I'd take a top 10 pick for him... with 2 firsts, I'd bolster the defense (ILB, OLB).

[RuthlessBurgher]

Perhaps, but not a gamble I'm willing to take for $9M+. As I mentioned earlier, I'm happy bringing him back on a 3 year deal at a price point that allows him to start, but does not tie the wrists if he is a backup or rotation player.

Yup. Here are the potential scenarios for Dupree this offseason and my ranking of how preferable they'd be:

Me likey: Dupree is brought back on a reasonable deal after the team cuts him in early March to prevent a $9M cap hit.

Hakuna Matata: Dupree is cut in early March to prevent a $9M cap hit.and opts to sign with another team instead.

Me no likey: Dupree is not cut and just plays out 2019 on the 5th year option, counting $9M against our cap.

[hawaiiansteel]

since the 49ers have been mentioned I believe their 2nd round pick (34th overall) is the best we could hope for.