AB Problems, Steelers' Underachieving Because of Team Culture

[RuthlessBurgher]

Nice analysis and writeup, NB! They have, in fact, had very similar coaching careers.

I was actually surprised that New Orleans stuck with Payton after his 3rd straight 7-9 finish in a row (with HoF Drew Brees at the helm!?!) back in 2016, but the Saints' ownership was patient with him (like the Steelers' ownership was patient with Cowher following 7-9, 6-10, 9-7 finishes at the turn of the century), and are now being rewarded for sticking with a good coach through both good times and bad. A lesson can be learned there. Patience, grasshoppers.

[Ernie]

ok... so without reading through your lengthy post (got through a few paragraphs)... you admitted yourself that you feel they are "basically the same".. my guess is that Payton runs a tighter ship.. and doesn't get slapped around near as much on clock management and challenges.

[Northern_Blitz]

Nice analysis and writeup, NB! They have, in fact, had very similar coaching careers.

I was actually surprised that New Orleans stuck with Payton after his 3rd straight 7-9 finish in a row (with HoF Drew Brees at the helm!?!) back in 2016, but the Saints' ownership was patient with him (like the Steelers' ownership was patient with Cowher following 7-9, 6-10, 9-7 finishes at the turn of the century), and are now being rewarded for sticking with a good coach through both good times and bad. A lesson can be learned there. Patience, grasshoppers.

Thanks Ruthless

A similar thing happened to us when we had to rebuild the D and missed the playoffs in 2012 and 2013*.

We're lucky that the people running the show for the Steelers are patient. My guess is that fumbles and field goals revert to the mean next year and we're in the playoffs.

I think how we deal with trying to improve turnover generation on D will determine whether or not we contend for another SB.

*Note how the cherry picked timeline for 3 playoff wins in 8 years starts in 2012 to make it sound as bad as possible.

[pittpete]

What if Payton didnt make the playoffs this year?
Would things be different?
You'd have to say posssibly...

[Northern_Blitz]

ok... so without reading through your lengthy post (got through a few paragraphs)... you admitted yourself that you feel they are "basically the same".. my guess is that Payton runs a tighter ship.. and doesn't get slapped around near as much on clock management and challenges.

It's possible. I don't watch many of their games so I don't know.

But, I think that the Saints win the NFCC game last weekend (or at least dramatically improve their odds of winning) if Payton doesn't go all "offensive guru" and throw it 2 out of 3 downs at the LA 13.

The Rams only had 2 timeouts and there was 1:58 left on the clock.

You run the ball 3 times there. That forces them to burn the rest of their timeouts and takes about a minute off the clock (if you don't score a TD or even get a 1st down with your exceptional RB).

Instead, they throw 2 incomplete passes and the Rams have a TO and 1:45 left on the clock.

If they run three times for no yards, kick a FG, and have the same kickoff. Goff would have had to go ~45 yards in ~minute with no timeouts. That's a much harder drive than 1:45 with a TO left.

[Sugar]

It's possible. I don't watch many of their games so I don't know.

But, I think that the Saints win the NFCC game last weekend (or at least dramatically improve their odds of winning) if Payton doesn't go all "offensive guru" and throw it 2 out of 3 downs at the LA 13.

The Rams only had 2 timeouts and there was 1:58 left on the clock.

You run the ball 3 times there. That forces them to burn the rest of their timeouts and takes about a minute off the clock (if you don't score a TD or even get a 1st down with your exceptional RB).

Instead, they throw 2 incomplete passes and the Rams have a TO and 1:45 left on the clock.

If they run three times for no yards, kick a FG, and have the same kickoff. Goff would have had to go ~45 yards in ~minute with no timeouts. That's a much harder drive than 1:45 with a TO left.

It looks like he should have been living in his fears!

[Northern_Blitz]

It looks like he should have been living in his fears!

Him and Pete Carroll both

But Guru's like to pass. Any idiot can run three times.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Him and Pete Carroll both

But Guru's like to pass. Any idiot can run three times.

Pete Carroll and Kyle Shanahan's ridiculously arrogant playcalling (this is not 20-20 hindsight...anyone with any football knowledge could plainly see the stupidity emerging in real time) in their Super Bowls against NE resulted in 2 additonal rings for the Boston Asterisks. If Carroll just handed the ball to Beast Mode at the goal line and Shanahan decided to grind out the rest of the game with Freeman (6.82 ypc avg in SBLI, but only 11 carries) and Coleman (4.14 ypc avg in SBLI, but only 7 carries) after going up 28-3 in the 3rd quarter, then New England's record in Super Bowls right now would be 3 wins and 7 losses. Huge difference.

[Ernie]

wow... if you guys want to cherry pick a few play calls... I'm sure we could find a few from our guys as well... QB sneak anyone? lol... actually, I prefer the 50 yard bomb to Sammie "no hands" Coates on a 4th and 1 lol

[Disco1981]

wow... if you guys want to cherry pick a few play calls... I'm sure we could find a few from our guys as well... QB sneak anyone? lol... actually, I prefer the 50 yard bomb to Sammie "no hands" Coates on a 4th and 1 lol

I agree with Ruth...Both those games were over... Out thought themselves...2nd and goal at the 1...You give the ball 3 straight times to Beast Mode, and yes hindsight and armchair be damned...

Same as Atlanta...Run or punt...BOTH times...Anything but an incomplete pass and a sack...Game was over, and they panicked...Cheats would have had " only " 3...And 1 was the tuck rule and the other Spygate...

Their legacy would have been totally different if not for those dumb Asses imo

[Ernie]

I didnt realize we were arguing with each other lol..

[Ernie]

I agree with Ruth...Both those games were over... Out thought themselves...2nd and goal at the 1...You give the ball 3 straight times to Beast Mode, and yes hindsight and armchair be damned...

Same as Atlanta...Run or punt...BOTH times...Anything but an incomplete pass and a sack...Game was over, and they panicked...Cheats would have had " only " 3...And 1 was the tuck rule and the other Spygate...

Their legacy would have been totally different if not for those dumb Asses imo

and I'm not disagreeing with you at all btw. The scenarios I described were just as important if not moreso.. because our games were very much on the line.

[NorthCoast]

Ernie, can you tell my why you think Payton is better? Is it because he calls plays on O and has the label of "offensive genius"?

I don't mean this as an attack.

I brought up Payton because I think he and Tomlin are pretty much the same (in almost every way I can think of).

In a results based league, they have produced essentially the same results.

Payton became Saints HC in 2006. Since being hired he has:
1 SB win [push]
1 SB appearance
3 Conference Championship Appearances [push]
3 first round byes [push]
Regular season record: 0.615 (118 - 74)
Playoff record: 0.571 (8 - 6)

He also has 1 full year suspension for bounty gate. Since he was hired a year earlier than Tomlin, that means that they have the same number of seasons as HC.

Tomlin became Steelers HC in 2007. Since being hired he has:
1 SB win [push]
2 SB appearances
3 Conference Championship Appearances [push]
3 first round byes [push]
Regular season record: 0.654 (125 - 66)
Playoff record: 0.533 (8 - 7)

Because Payton lost a year to suspension, they have the same number of seasons as HC. They have both had great QBs for all of their tenure (I'd probably argue that Brees is slightly better than Ben).

I think they are very similar in all the stats listed above.
- Tomlin is slightly better in the regular season (winning just over half a game more per season).
- They have the same number of playoff wins.
- Tomlin has more playoff loses, but has appeared in 1 more playoff game, and 1 more SB.
- In Maniac's arbitrary 8 year time frame:
' -- Tomlin has gone 3 - 5 in playoff games (1 bye and one Conference Championship loss).
' -- Payton has won 4 - 4 playoff games (1 bye and one Conference Championship loss).

Basically, Tomlin's results are as good or slightly better than Payton's except in playoff record. But, they have the same number of playoff wins so Tomlin's record is worse because he's played one more playoff game.

I think this is why having a benchmark for success is important. Without looking at the numbers, I figured that the Payton would have done better.

I think that's because I'm not emotionally invested in the Saints losses, so I don't remember them as vividly as losses by the Steelers .

Nice chunk of research NB. And for those saying Payton had better control of the locker room, you're forgetting bounty gate.

[Ernie]

Nice chunk of research NB. And for those saying Payton had better control of the locker room, you're forgetting bounty gate.

that was close to 10 years ago. what do we have since then?

[Northern_Blitz]

wow... if you guys want to cherry pick a few play calls... I'm sure we could find a few from our guys as well... QB sneak anyone? lol... actually, I prefer the 50 yard bomb to Sammie "no hands" Coates on a 4th and 1 lol

This has always been my point about Tomlin.

He makes mistakes with time management (often ones that seem obvious at home).

But I think all NFL coaches make these mistakes.

So, I don't think replacing Tomlin won't get rid of this issue.

But if he continued to resist having a guy to advise on clock management (and replays to a lesser extent) I'd let him go.

It seems like such an easy way to improve decision making (where Tomlin would still have final say). And it's something we can do without impacting the cap.

Seems like such a no brainer.