Bell...AGAIN!

[Steel Maniac]

You do realize that every RB you listed except for Freeman is still on their rookie contract, right? Freeman currently has the highest average salary among RB's, and I expect every other RB you mentioned to bypass his deal once they are eligible to receive a long-term second contract.

Yeah, but those guys won’t be turning down contracts that will be making them highest paid rb either like dumb @ss Bell.

[Captain Lemming]

the data? lmao..

Yes....Data.....it keeps one from looking ridiculous....example to follow.

what does the data tell us about QB's once they hit 35? Pretty sure it's not good.

ACTUALLY, data says that Smith (33 and actually better than ever), Brees (38 ) and Brady (40) lead the NFL in QB rankings.
Rivers (36) and Ben (35) in addition to the three above had Pro bowl caliber seasons.

By comparison lets look at RBs over 30?
Not a SINGLE ONE over 1000 yards

Data shmatta.. what does the eye test tell us?

Same thing the data said
Ummmm, that some of the best QBs in the league are over 35 and NOT ONE BACK over 30 was special.

Are you in some parallel universe where the “eye test” has Adrain Petersen, Frank Gore, and Marshawn as league leaders like they used to be in their 20s?

Dizz, take a moment and consider this:
Brady was 30 when Adrian Petersen WAS DRAFTED and WHO plays like an old man?

[Captain Lemming]

Dizz, no wonder you don’t like “Data”.
Real data makes mockery of your argument.

[feltdizz]

Yes....Data.....it keeps one from looking ridiculous....example to follow.



ACTUALLY, data says that Smith (33 and actually better than ever), Brees (38 ) and Brady (40) lead the NFL in QB rankings.
Rivers (36) and Ben (35) in addition to the three above had Pro bowl caliber seasons.

By comparison lets look at RBs over 30?
Not a SINGLE ONE over 1000 yards

THIS IS A LIE CAP!!!

Frank Gore had 2 1000 yard seasons after turning 31. He averaged 1,041 yards from age 31 to age 34 in INDIANAPOLIS without Andrew Luck the last 2 years. They STINK and he still put up decent yards.



Same thing the data said
Ummmm, that some of the best QBs in the league are over 35 and NOT ONE BACK over 30 was special.

Are you in some parallel universe where the “eye test” has Adrain Petersen, Frank Gore, and Marshawn as league leaders like they used to be in their 20s?

Dizz, take a moment and consider this:
Brady was 30 when Adrian Petersen WAS DRAFTED and WHO plays like an old man?

Bell JUST turned 26 dude... wtf are you talking about? Why do we need to look at RB's over 30 when Bell has 4 years before he is 31?

Look at Frank Gore from age 26 to 29... averaged 1200 yards a season on the ground

Look at Adrian Petersons stats from age 26 to 30.. he had a 2,000 yard season and while he was injured at 29 he came back at 30 and had a 1400 yard season.

Marshawn Lynch at 26 to 28 averaged 1400 yards on the ground.


The thing about data is you can easy twist the numbers to fit your argument. Who said anything about wanting Bell for 5 years? 3 years, MAYBE 4 and then you start looking for his replacement.

and sure, Brees, Brady, etc are playing lights out BUT the data shows MOST QB's at that age don't play like these guys.

That's been my argument all along. When you use ALL the RB's the data doesn't look good. When you use ALL the QB's the data doesn't look good. However, when you use HOFers and the cream of the crop the data favors these players. Bell isn't some 3 year and out of the league RB. He is the best all around back in football.

Barry Sanders had 2,000 yards when he was 29. He had 1500 yards when he was 30!!!

Talk about making a mockery out of an argument? LMAO... too easy.

Game, Set, Match!

oh, by the way..

lets see how long Barry Sanders lasted in the NFL. 10 years of GREAT production.
Adrian Peterson, 9 years of great production before he fell off
Frank Gore, 13 years in the NFL and still going strong.
Marshawn Lynch, 10 years in the league. A little bit of a drop off but he averaged 4.3 ypc last year and had 7TD's. He was never a big gainer, he was a move the pile RB. Still impressive.

I know you are digging Cap, hurry up! lol

[feltdizz]

add in the fact that he's already made it clear he's going to be a major distraction AGAIN by not reporting to camp, which is his right, but still not conducive to the goals of the team. I'm sure they are looking forward to that BS playing out again

I doubt it happens but if I'm Colbert I would seriously consider drafting a guy early and getting rid of him

but how much of a distraction was Bell? We went 13-3 and we lost Shazier to a catastrophic injury.

seriously, this talk of distractions is ridiculous. We all watched the Steelers go toe to toe with the Pats and it looked like we beat them until NYC took it away from us. We didn't even have AB or Shazier for that game and still should have won or at least pushed it to over time if not for a dumb ass pass on the last play.

it's only a distraction to folks who act like every tweet or article is life changing. It really has no impact on how we play on the field.

[feltdizz]

You do realize that every RB you listed except for Freeman is still on their rookie contract, right? Freeman currently has the highest average salary among RB's, and I expect every other RB you mentioned to bypass his deal once they are eligible to receive a long-term second contract.

The guy from Minnesota replaced Hyde in SF, never had more than 600 yards on the ground and is making 7.5 Mill a year.

[Steel Maniac]

Dizz, no wonder you don’t like “Data”.
Real data makes mockery of your argument.

Check mate

[feltdizz]

c'mon Cap.. I'm waiting on you to refute the actual data on great RB's from 26 to 30.

Where is the data?

[feltdizz]

also when it comes to data check out this graph. It's more in line with my theory on data when it comes to Bell.



I think most people use the 2.57 years for a RB when discussing Bell. "RB's don't last long" right?

Yet WR's only last .24 years longer. Does this mean anything when discussing Bell and AB? Definitely not because both have outplayed those career lengths.

Now look at how long NFL players play when they are drafted in the first round or make at least one pro bowl? 11 years and 9 years. I think both will play at high levels for at least 8 or 9 years. Anything after that is incredible IMO.

When you are pro bowl caliber RB's the metrics used for averages/production drop off don't really hold true IMO.

[Northern_Blitz]

also when it comes to data check out this graph. It's more in line with my theory on data when it comes to Bell.



I think most people use the 2.57 years for a RB when discussing Bell. "RB's don't last long" right?

Yet WR's only last .24 years longer. Does this mean anything when discussing Bell and AB? Definitely not because both have outplayed those career lengths.

Now look at how long NFL players play when they are drafted in the first round or make at least one pro bowl? 11 years and 9 years. I think both will play at high levels for at least 8 or 9 years. Anything after that is incredible IMO.

When you are pro bowl caliber RB's the metrics used for averages/production drop off don't really hold true IMO.

I like this chart, but I wish that they separated that players with 1 pro-bowl by position. I think that would be more representative than the numbers at the bottom.

I think that most players leave the league because they don't make it (i.e. back ups / special teamers). It would be interesting to see if the data for good players verifies the gut feeling most of us have that RBs age out earlier than other positions (like WR).

[feltdizz]

I like this chart, but I wish that they separated that players with 1 pro-bowl by position. I think that would be more representative than the numbers at the bottom.

I think that most players leave the league because they don't make it (i.e. back ups / special teamers). It would be interesting to see if the data for good players verifies the gut feeling most of us have that RBs age out earlier than other positions (like WR).

check out this graph for injuries/games missed by position from 2000-2014



honestly, I think it's just part of the game. Guys get injured. We have no idea if Bell will have another major injury of if Ben, AB, Conner, etc.. will have one. While I will agree RB's take punishment I would have more issue if Bell sat out voluntarily from a game or pulled up gimpy in the regular season and pulled a Duce Staley.


If AB has another injury this year will we hold it against him?

[Slapstick]

Teams keep 5 or 6 WRs but only 3 RBs...with so much competition and turnover, it is kind of a miracle that WRs last longer at all...

[feltdizz]

Teams keep 5 or 6 WRs but only 3 RBs...with so much competition and turnover, it is kind of a miracle that WRs last longer at all...

Well, the fact they keep 5 to 6 is probably why they last longer in the league. If they only kept 4 I’m sure the number of years would be shorter overall.

i think the real takeaway from this is if you make the pro bowl at least once you will usually have a long career. It’s pretty much a captain obvious moment. The best players play longer.

[Captain Lemming]

c'mon Cap.. I'm waiting on you to refute the actual data on great RB's from 26 to 30.

Where is the data?

Wow, I got nuthin man.
I mean when you COMPLETELY CHANGE THE ARGUMENT you are so good at fooling yourself into thinking you make sense.

Oh, have you forgotten what point you made that I disputed and crushed Dizz?

I responded to your post about QBs over 35.
I destroyed YOUR POINT which was about quarterbacks by pointing out that a DISPROPORTIONATLY LARGE number of QBs are among the leagues elite. Just sweeping that point under the rug aren’t we Dizz?

I “added” an additionally wholly accurate point that NOT ONE BACK IN THE LEAGUE over 30 had 1000 yards. My accurate point was that QBs age WAY better than runningbacks.

You proceed to call me a “liar” because ONE GUY in the league today “had” 1000 yard seasons over 30. Come on Dizz don’t play dense, you KNOW I was talking about last season 2017.

Sure Dizz there have been other backs during the history of the league who had 1000 yards seasons over 30.

Then you change MY premise to try to make your point. I correctly pointed out that there are no backs in the NFL over 30 who have 1000 yards. I am correct I what “I” said.

Sure, Bell is 26. “I” never said anything about Bell being “done” at 26 did I?

But you and I BOTH know he ain’t signing no 3 year deal Dizz, so your point is moot.

My points? All perfectly valid.

Talk to me about how right you are about QBs over 35 or backs over 30 and you would have something but right now you got nothin my friend.

[Northern_Blitz]

check out this graph for injuries/games missed by position from 2000-2014



honestly, I think it's just part of the game. Guys get injured. We have no idea if Bell will have another major injury of if Ben, AB, Conner, etc.. will have one. While I will agree RB's take punishment I would have more issue if Bell sat out voluntarily from a game or pulled up gimpy in the regular season and pulled a Duce Staley.


If AB has another injury this year will we hold it against him?

Let's say that the chance of injury to a player on a carry is equal for every player. Bell would be more likely to get injured because he carries and catches the ball more than everyone else in the league.

I think I said this last time you posted that chart, but I was surprised that WRs injury rates were just as high as RBs. That's why I think it would have been interesting in the first chart to see them separate career length out by position in the pro-bowl category.

My sense (and probably the conventional wisdom) is that RB careers are shorter because they take more punishment. Guys who go to pro bowls are probably more likely to end their careers because of wear & tear + decline in performance (instead of just getting displaced which I think leads to the 2.5 year thing above). It would be interesting if probowl RBs and WRs had similar career lengths.

For example, I think that we payed AB too much too. He's awesome, but I think that great QBs make skill positions great and that we'd have been better served letting him go and bringing in cheaper average to above average guys. Ben would make these guys look better than they are. Then, we spend the money on D (or the O-Line), where I don't think there's a position that elevates half the other guys on the field. But, I wasn't as upset when we paid AB because (1) it was in line with the market for great WRs and (2) I assumed that WRs have longer careers than RBs. So, I figured that if we had to pick one of them, I'd pick AB because he should be good for longer. Having the data would be interesting because I could see if that assumption was right or wrong.