RuthlessBurgher's Initial Offseason Mock Draft 1.0 prior to the Senior Bowl

[RuthlessBurgher]

Ruthless 3 injured players of the top 4. High reward but high risk to say the least. Doesn't mean it can't work but someone is getting fired if it didn't.

If completely healthy, I could see Jaylon Smith coming off the board in the neighborhood of #5, Kendall Fuller around #15, and Karl Joseph about #25 or so.

And because of the extraordinary depth at DT this year, Austin Johnson will likely come off the board in round 2 even though he might have come off the board late in round 1 in most other drafts that aren't so DT-heavy. So, that's a lot of value there.

I think Fuller and Joseph will both be good to go by training camp (the fact that they aren't now is only making them better values in my mind...don't see either as a long-term injury risk...of course, team doctors obviously know way more that I do).

I acknowledge that Jaylon Smith will likely need at least one full medical redshirt year, and may never be the same player again, but at that point in the draft, it's a risk I'd be willing to take (especially if I was able to get an extra day two pick via trade down).

[Iron City Inc.]

If completely healthy, I could see Jaylon Smith coming off the board in the neighborhood of #5, Kendall Fuller around #15, and Karl Joseph about #25 or so.

And because of the extraordinary depth at DT this year, Austin Johnson will likely come off the board in round 2 even though he might have come off the board late in round 1 in most other drafts that aren't so DT-heavy. So, that's a lot of value there.

I think Fuller and Joseph will both be good to go by training camp (the fact that they aren't now is only making them better values in my mind...don't see either as a long-term injury risk...of course, team doctors obviously know way more that I do).

I acknowledge that Jaylon Smith will likely need at least one full medical redshirt year, and may never be the same player again, but at that point in the draft, it's a risk I'd be willing to take (especially if I was able to get an extra day two pick via trade down).

Didn't say I didn't like it. You could hit it out of the park with that group.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Ruthless 3 injured players of the top 4. High reward but high risk to say the least. Doesn't mean it can't work but someone is getting fired if it didn't.

Report: Jaylon Smith not expected to play at all in 2016
Posted by Darin Gantt on April 15, 2016, 1:03 PM EDT


Jaylon Smith thinks he’s going to be the best player in this draft, but it’s going to take him longer to start proving that.

Smith went through the medical re-check in Indianapolis this week and teams are reviewing his file, but the news apparently was not good.

According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Notre Dame linebacker is not expected to play in 2016. The expectation is that he’ll be ready for the 2017 season, after he’s recovered from his Fiesta Bowl knee injury.

Smith tore his ACL and MCL in his final game, which will knock him from the high reaches of the first round.

Now the question becomes which team is willing to roll the dice on his recovery, and when. A good team with depth could afford to wait on him, but not many teams are able or willing to take a redshirt player.

[URL]http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/15/report-jaylon-smith-not-expected-to-play-at-all-in-2016/[/URL]

[Oviedo]

Report: Jaylon Smith not expected to play at all in 2016
Posted by Darin Gantt on April 15, 2016, 1:03 PM EDT


Jaylon Smith thinks he’s going to be the best player in this draft, but it’s going to take him longer to start proving that.

Smith went through the medical re-check in Indianapolis this week and teams are reviewing his file, but the news apparently was not good.

According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Notre Dame linebacker is not expected to play in 2016. The expectation is that he’ll be ready for the 2017 season, after he’s recovered from his Fiesta Bowl knee injury.

Smith tore his ACL and MCL in his final game, which will knock him from the high reaches of the first round.

Now the question becomes which team is willing to roll the dice on his recovery, and when. A good team with depth could afford to wait on him, but not many teams are able or willing to take a redshirt player.

[URL]http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/15/report-jaylon-smith-not-expected-to-play-at-all-in-2016/[/URL]

To use a 1st, 2nd or 3rd on Smith IMO you need to have a very high level of confidence he is going to be a Pro Bowl player because the risk level is so high that he can ever be the player the was a ND

I think you see him dropping because the med evals are probably indicating some nerve damage

[RuthlessBurgher]

By Josh Alper
April 17, 2016, 7:36 AM EDT
Report: Kendall Fuller gets good news at medical recheck

Virginia Tech cornerback Kendall Fuller was one of the 2016 draft prospects to head back to Indianapolis last week for rechecks on issues from their medical exams at the Scouting Combine.

Fuller tore the meniscus in his right knee last season and had microfracture surgery as part of the repair process. The injury wiped out most of his final season in Blacksburg, although it didn’t stop him from declaring for the draft with a year of eligibility remaining.

It doesn’t look like the injury will stop him from contributing as a rookie. Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that the expectation is that Fuller will be ready for training camp after having the knee re-examined and that there’s a chance he’ll be able to participate in minicamp as well. The general consensus among draft pundits has been that Fuller will be a second day pick.

When Fuller does get on the field, he’ll join brothers Vincent, Corey and Kyle as NFL players. The Fullers will be the second or third family with four brothers to make it to the NFL — Ross, Jim, Joey and Keith Browner were the first — as Glenn Gronkowski is also trying to extend his family’s place in the league.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

2.45 CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech 5'11" 187
2.58 DT Austin Johnson, Penn State 6'4" 314
3.64 SS Karl Joseph, West Virginia 5'10" 205
3.89 LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame 6'2" 223

I'm DeVille and I approve this draft. (well, those 1st four picks, anyway).

Would be AMAZING.

7.229 LB Ian Seau, Nevada 6'2" 259

worth a flier... decent pass rusher...

[Jooser]

1.25 CB Eli Apple, Ohio State 6'1" 199
2.58 DT Austin Johnson, Penn State 6'4" 314
3.89 SS Karl Joseph, West Virginia 5'10" 205
4.123 LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame 6'2" 223
6.220 WR Mike Thomas, Southern Mississippi 6'1" 197
7.229 LB Ian Seau, Nevada 6'2" 259
7.246 DE Delvon Simmons, Southern California 6'5" 295

I'd wet my pants if we got those first three picks there RB. However, I highly doubt we get Joseph in the 3rd. We may be able to get KJ Dillon there though....

[RuthlessBurgher]

I'd wet my pants if we got those first three picks there RB. However, I highly doubt we get Joseph in the 3rd. We may be able to get KJ Dillon there though....

My current sig mock still has us taking Joseph in the 3rd, but it's with the first pick in the 3rd round from Tennessee #64 overall in a trade down scenario rather than with our late 3rd round pick down at #89. Just thinking that he might drop a bit due to injury and other similarly ranked safeties that might go earlier in the 2nd who aren't injured. We'll see.

[Jooser]

My current sig mock still has us taking Joseph in the 3rd, but it's with the first pick in the 3rd round from Tennessee #64 overall in a trade down scenario rather than with our late 3rd round pick down at #89. Just thinking that he might drop a bit due to injury and other similarly ranked safeties that might go earlier in the 2nd who aren't injured. We'll see.

Roger that, but I'd gladly take him in R1 or R2.....

[RuthlessBurgher]

Roger that, but I'd gladly take him in R1 or R2.....

Our second round pick at #58 is only 6 slots ahead of where I projected him at the top of the third round at pick #64, so I would be awfully satisfied if we are able to land Joseph at 2.58. But I don't want any safeties in round 1 (after Jalen Ramsey, who will be off the board in the top 5 overall picks, of course).

There are so many solid day 2 safeties that we have shown interest in (Karl Joseph, Vonn Bell, Keanu Neal, or Jeremy Cash in round 2 and Darian Thompson or T.J. Green in round 3...we hosted all of those guys on official visits to team HQ). Unless the team views one of these guys as Troy Polamalu caliber and the rest of them as Mike Doss caliber, I would prefer that we use our top pick on a CB or DT and wait for a day two safety.

[SS Laser]

Ok I am asking because I am very high on Jaylon Smith as is RB in this thread. I do wonder if the Steelers should know more about injury after Spence? They were high on Spence it seems as a 3rd at 86. And to keep him around for 2 seasons till healthy. So is the 4th rd pick about right for waiting about 2 seasons for Smith? And really if he can do what Spence did what is his floor? Better then Spence I would think. I hope better or as good as Shazier. Many picks take a season or 2 to see the field anyway. So I would use the 3rd pick no problem if there is the thought he will do what Spence did. Very interesting pick he could be as how many years does Timmons have left at a high level? Also Shazier does still have injury concerns. Smith's pedigree is said to be so high I think it is worth the gamble.

[Oviedo]

Ok I am asking because I am very high on Jaylon Smith as is RB in this thread. I do wonder if the Steelers should know more about injury after Spence? They were high on Spence it seems as a 3rd at 86. And to keep him around for 2 seasons till healthy. So is the 4th rd pick about right for waiting about 2 seasons for Smith? And really if he can do what Spence did what is his floor? Better then Spence I would think. I hope better or as good as Shazier. Many picks take a season or 2 to see the field anyway. So I would use the 3rd pick no problem if there is the thought he will do what Spence did. Very interesting pick he could be as how many years does Timmons have left at a high level? Also Shazier does still have injury concerns. Smith's pedigree is said to be so high I think it is worth the gamble.

Shazier's injuries occurred in the NFL not before the NFL and he looked pretty special at the end of last season

Just from yesterday Schefter had more info on nerve damage

[url]http://www.mlive.com/irish/2016/04/jaylon_smiths_nfl_career_in_qu.html[/url]

IMO 3rd or 4th round is earliest you touch him and right now it is no better than 50-50 you get anything back

[Oviedo]

There are so many solid day 2 safeties that we have shown interest in (Karl Joseph, Vonn Bell, Keanu Neal, or Jeremy Cash in round 2 and Darian Thompson or T.J. Green in round 3...we hosted all of those guys on official visits to team HQ). Unless the team views one of these guys as Troy Polamalu caliber and the rest of them as Mike Doss caliber, I would prefer that we use our top pick on a CB or DT and wait for a day two safety.

Totally agree. None of those guys is a Troy P.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Time for an updated full first round mock since I haven't done one since the Rams traded up to #1. It looks like Cleveland wants to trade down after being leapfrogged by L.A. Their new Moneyball Jonah Hill guy wants to maximize draft equity by acquiring more picks rather than acquiring a franchise quarterback for the first time in several decades. Back in 2009, Cleveland had the 5th pick but traded back 3 times before making a pick (NYJ traded up from 1.17 to 1.5 to take Mark Sanchez, TB traded up from 1.19 to 1.17 to take Josh Freeman, PHI traded up from 1.21 to 1.19 to take Jeremy Maclin, then CLE finally took Alex Mack at 1.21). I'm projecting that the Browns trade back 3 times again this year.

Both the Niners at 1.7 and the Eagles at 1.8 want to move up to 1.2 to take their QB of the future (Chip Kelly vs. his former employers bidding against each other). The Browns take San Fran's deal, since they have a 2nd round pick this year and Philly does not (it was traded to the Rams in the Bradford deal and has already been used as ammunition to move up to the #1 spot). So Chip Kelly's dumb trade involving Philly's 2016 second round pick ultimately ends up benefitting...you guessed it...Chip Kelly. Go figure. Cleveland trades 1.2 to SF for 1.7, 2.27, 4.105, and a second round pick in 2017.

Miami tried to sign every RB on the market in free agency, but were not successful. They want Zeke Elliott bad. But they know Philly covets him as well as their backup option since they were unsuccessful in their attempt to trade up to the #2 spot for a QB. Cleveland screws Philly a second time, since Miami is willing to give them a 2nd round pick (which, again, Philly doesn't have...thanks again Chip) to jump ahead of the Eagles for Elliott. Cleveland trades 1.7 to MIA for 1.13 and 2.42.

Indy need OL help badly...they figured they could land either Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker at 1.18...even if the Lions took one of them at 1.16, they could still get the other. However, with Tennessee moving down from 1.1 to 1.15 with a big OL need as well, the Colts decide to jump ahead of both of them to be sure that they are able to get the OT that they want to keep their franchise QB upright. Cleveland trades 1.13 to IND for 1.18, 3.82, and 4.116.

1. LA QB Carson Wentz
2. SF QB Jared Goff
3. SD OT Laremy Tunsil
4. DAL S/CB Jalen Ramsey
5. JAX LB/S Myles Jack
6. BAL DE/OLB Joey Bosa
7. MIA RB Ezekiel Elliott
8. PHI DT DeForest Buckner
9. TB CB Vernon Hargreaves III
10. NYG OT Ronnie Stanley
11. CHI DT A'Shawn Robinson
12. NO DT Sheldon Rankins
13. IND OT Jack Conklin
14. OAK LB Reggie Ragland
15. TEN OT Taylor Decker
16. DET WR Laquan Treadwell
17. ATL DE Shaq Lawson
18. CLE QB Paxton Lynch
19. BUF DT Jarran Reed
20. NYJ DE/OLB Leonard Floyd
21. WAS LB Darren Lee
22. HOU WR Corey Coleman
23. MIN WR Josh Doctson
24. CIN DT Robert Nkemdiche
25. PIT CB Eli Apple
26. SEA DE/OLB Noah Spence
27. GB DT Andrew Billings
28. KC CB William Jackson III
29. ARZ CB Mackenzie Alexander
30. CAR RB Derrick Henry
31. DEN DT Vernon Butler

[NJ-STEELER]

What ever became of Marcus lattimore. Did t he have nerve damage when he got hurt his senior year. I remember the in res drafted him but has he played at all??