RuthlessBurgher's Initial Offseason Mock Draft 1.0 prior to the Senior Bowl

[RuthlessBurgher]

Okay, all of my mocks so far have featured Hunter Henry. With the Ladarius Green signing, I'm fine with Green, James, and Spaeth as our TE trio for 2016. Of course, if Henry fell down to #58, I'd consider it if he was indeed the BPA, or if Austin Hooper fell down to #89, I'd consider that as well if he was the BPA there, but we have bigger needs elsewhere at this point, so we will look toward the best player available at a position of need.

With Steve McLendon unsigned (and my preferred free agent target Damon Harrison given big bucks by the Giants in their crazy cash hemorrhage yesterday), nose tackle is a need, since Daniel McCullers seemingly regressed somewhat in year 2 after a promising rookie campaign. Luckily for us, this is an extremely deep DT class through the first two rounds, so it is quite possible that DT will be BPA for us with a prime pick.

Even with William Gay back in the fold, we could still use more talent at corner. Right now, it would be Gay and Cockrell as our outside starters with Golson as our nickel back and Grant as our dime back. I'd like to be able to get a legit first or second round talent at corner to compete with Cockrell for P.T. this year, and possibly to replace Gay as an outside starter next year as Willie transitions back to part time slot duty for his last year or two in Black and Gold.

With those two positions in mind, we can let the board fall to us and then determine who would be the best fit for us. If a DT like Jarran Reed, Andrew Billings, or Vernon Butler is deemed to be BPA for us at #25, then we could follow that up with a CB Kyle Fuller, Artie Burns, or Xavien Howard at #58. If a CB like Eli Apple or Mackenzie Alexander is deemed to be BPA for us at #25, then we could follow that up with a DT like Austin Johnson or Kenny Clark at #58.

With Will Allen gone and only Robert Golden signed to replace him, our next need would be safety (although I am still holding out hope that we double dip in the Charger pool and score Eric Weddle). After consensus top 5 pick Jalen Ramsey (love that kid; really hope Baltimore doesn't get him) comes off the board, I don't see another worthy of a first round grade, but I could see a half dozen or so of them coming off the board on day two (Karl Joseph, Vonn Bell, Jeremy Cash, Jalen Mills, Darian Thompson, Sean Davis). Which one or two of them ultimately falls to #89 should determine what our next pick would be.

And then with the last of our top 4 "prime" picks until we have to wait endlessly for our next picks in round 7, I'd hit the d-line again with a dedicated backup for Heyward and Tuitt...someone like Jihad Ward or Matt Ioannidis.

My super optimistic mock right now would include signing Eric Weddle and then having Vernon Hargraves' mediocre 40 time at the combine (compared to speedsters like Ramsey, Apple, and Jackson) cause him to fall into the mid teens or so...then I'd starting calling teams to inquire about whether they'd be interested in moving down to #25 for a 3rd round pick. Although the standard chart says that should allow us to move up to #19 or so, I'd start calling the Lions at #16, since already traded away their 3rd rounder to Philly and might want the chance to get a 3rd round pick back again...if they are interested in taking a first round DT to play next to the aging Haloti Ngata after losing both Suh and Fairley last year, the deep DT crop this year might mean that they could get a similarly valued DT at #25 than the one they may have targeted at #16 and they would get back the 3rd rounder they lost last year in the process.

Sign FS Eric Weddle
Trade 1.25 and 3.89 to DET for 1.16

1. CB Vernon Hargreaves III, Florida 5'10" 204
2. DT Austin Johnson, Penn State 6'4" 314
4. DE Jihad Ward, Illinois 6'5" 297
7. OT Brandon Shell, South Carolina 6'5" 324
7. OLB Ian Seau, Nevada 6'2" 259
7. FS Jordan Lomax, Iowa 5'10" 202

[buccoray61]

I read one of the most stupid things ever today on the internet,(and that's saying alot) This guy on NFL.com Lance Zierlein had the Steelers taking Paxton Lynch QB from Memphis at number 25

[RuthlessBurgher]

I read one of the most stupid things ever today on the internet,(and that's saying alot) This guy on NFL.com Lance Zierlein had the Steelers taking Paxton Lynch QB from Memphis at number 25

His father, our former OL coach (who once forwarded porn to all of bosses leaguewide via email), wasn't the sharpest crayon in the box either.

[buccoray61]

I read that Mike Tomlin was one of four NFL head coaches to attend Clemsons pro day last week.

[RuthlessBurgher]

I read that Mike Tomlin was one of four NFL head coaches to attend Clemsons pro day last week.

Makes sense...we could certainly use help in the secondary (Mackenzie Alexander, Jayron Kearse, and T.J. Green) and could always upgrade the pass rush (Kevin Dodd and Shaq Lawson), plus another mid-round wideout with size from Clemson could be considered (Charone Peake) after the recent issues involving our last mid-round wideout with size from Clemson became public.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Update time...the last "trade up" mock I posted on this thread was based on the assumption that we'd sign Weddle, who decided instead to go from Powder Blue to Purple...rather than accepting a reasonable deal to play with a true championship contender, he opted for the biggest payday instead. I don't begrudge a player for doing that, but if that's what you are going to do, just don't play the "ring over money" card first.

When the Martavis Bryant news came down, I changed the my sig mock to include our typical 3rd round wideout (Sterling Shepard, who I really like...reminds me of a poor man's Antonio Brown). However, since then, I've decided that we should be fine with Brown, Wheaton, Coates, Heyward-Bey, and either Eli Rogers or Shakim Phillips, both of whom showed flashes in Latrobe last year. I've opted instead to wait until our round 6 comp pick to add a wideout to the mix (which also happens to be my only offensive player in this entire mock draft).

In another thread, I started thinking about where teams might start considering taking a shot at Jaylon Smith, a top 5 overall talent who will certainly not play this year and might never even play at all if concerns about potential nerve damage is true. I decided that round 4 would be a reasonable risk (San Fran took a similar risk a few years ago by taking a first round talent in Marcus Lattimore in round 4 after a devastating knee injury). Even though that didn't work out for the Niners since Lattimore ultimately had to retire before he was ever able to take the field, I would be willing to take that risk here if no other teams pull the trigger on day two of the draft. If he is able to return after a year or two worth of rehab, his emergence could potentially correspond with Timmons' swan song in Black and Gold...a healthy Jaylon Smith would be a potentially devastating partner to Ryan Shazier.

Using my first 3 picks to address our biggest needs on defense in the secondary and between Heyward and Tuitt up front, before we take a chance on a medical redshirt, then depth picks late...

1.25 CB Eli Apple, Ohio State 6'1" 199
2.58 DT Austin Johnson, Penn State 6'4" 314
3.89 SS Karl Joseph, West Virginia 5'10" 205
4.123 LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame 6'2" 223
6.220 WR Mike Thomas, Southern Mississippi 6'1" 197
7.229 LB Ian Seau, Nevada 6'2" 259
7.246 DE Delvon Simmons, Southern California 6'5" 295

[SteelerMaine83]

Ruthless, I would be perfectly happy if the draft turned out that way, and I think you're reasoning in all this is sound. However, I am still an advocate, because of the advancing years of Ben and the upcoming contract redo's for Bell and AB (among others), that I think the Steelers need to be a small bit un-Steeler like and do a little more cap work and sign a few more FAs (to reasonable contracts--that is what you'll get after the first few days of big bucks FA is done). The uncertainty of having D entrusted to a bunch of rookies coming up big is too risky for an otherwise SB favorite or very near favorite, IMO.

So, get the cap money you need (and no more than that--excess room under the cap doesn't help you if you don't use it--front load some contracts to use it up, and save yourself from cap purgatory in the future) to sign a few modest improvements to the D. My take: re-up Timmons to get him down from the ugly $15M cap hit this year, but do it in a way that makes cutting him a cap win in a couple years (3yr/24M/9M bonus, where year one is base of 6M, pro-rated bonus of 3M=9M against cap, savings of 6M), designate Cortez as a June 1 cut (save 3M), extend DeCastro long-term (6 years) save 2M from his 8M cap hit, dump or trade (wouldn't it be nice to get a 6th or 7th for at least one of these guys???) M. Adams, S. Thomas, and Suisham (more than 2M total savings) and factor in the 0.7M we save from Martavis being suspended, and you have almost 14M of cap space without any damage to the team. That will pay for your rookies and help you solve a few other spots.

So, the other spots: FA signing of T. Knighton to play NT for those 1/3 of a plays a NT is in. Make it a cap friendly 3/13.5/4.5, with year one 1.5/1.5 pro-rate. 3M against the cap and he gets 6M this year. Second, a proven DE to rotate in (think Kirschke), given our two DEs more of a breather--M. DeVito, 3/6.9/2.4. The cap hit is small, so we maximize use of the cap this year to save money in the future.

Then, I see the draft like this:

1) M. Alexander-CB. Apple is rising, and with W. Jackson III, but both may need some greening. I see Ramsey (who may play CB or S), Hargreaves, Alexander, and Fuller (if healthy) as the only CBs that can start for us year one. Alexander takes away one side of the field and has been falling lately.

2) M. Killebrew-SS. Athletic and hard-hitting, V. Bell, the best and most ready pure SS (who knows about Cravens) is already gone. Golden may start, but Killebrew will get some time with KB as our DC.

3) D.J. Reader-NT/DL. Big run-stuffer with good short-area burst. Learns under Pot Roast.

4) J. Simmons-FS. Loading up on S, this guy is smart and underrated. Will be a starter in the NFL. (Ever notice how many high-drafted S wash-out, and many late rounders end up starters--hardest position to predict success).

6) C. Maggitt-OLB. Like J. Smith, injuries tell the story. If he can get healthy, a natural edge-rusher. Not abig risk with a 6th.

7) N. Kwiatkowski-ILB. Former S recognizes routes for coverage and has a good motor.

7) Lowry-DE (Northwestern). Tall guy with a good motor, fits our scheme. Future replacanement as he greens behind DeVito.

With these modest moves, our team D improves greatly and we're poised for #7 right away. Very do-doable, and not over-aggressive.

[BradshawsHairdresser]

Then, I see the draft like this:

1) M. Alexander-CB. Apple is rising, and with W. Jackson III, but both may need some greening. I see Ramsey (who may play CB or S), Hargreaves, Alexander, and Fuller (if healthy) as the only CBs that can start for us year one. Alexander takes away one side of the field and has been falling lately.

2) M. Killebrew-SS. Athletic and hard-hitting, V. Bell, the best and most ready pure SS (who knows about Cravens) is already gone. Golden may start, but Killebrew will get some time with KB as our DC.

3) D.J. Reader-NT/DL. Big run-stuffer with good short-area burst. Learns under Pot Roast.

4) J. Simmons-FS. Loading up on S, this guy is smart and underrated. Will be a starter in the NFL. (Ever notice how many high-drafted S wash-out, and many late rounders end up starters--hardest position to predict success).

6) C. Maggitt-OLB. Like J. Smith, injuries tell the story. If he can get healthy, a natural edge-rusher. Not abig risk with a 6th.

7) N. Kwiatkowski-ILB. Former S recognizes routes for coverage and has a good motor.

7) Lowry-DE (Northwestern). Tall guy with a good motor, fits our scheme. Future replacanement as he greens behind DeVito.

With these modest moves, our team D improves greatly and we're poised for #7 right away. Very do-doable, and not over-aggressive.

I had Killebrew in my latest mock ([url]http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/45444-My-Revised-Mock[/url]), but I was hoping he'd go later than round 2...yours is probably more realistic. I also had penciled in Kwiatkowski in round 7, but scratched him off at the last minute. I wouldn't be disappointed with that pick.

[RuthlessBurgher]

I haven't done a full first round mock draft yet...it's time.

1. TEN DB Jalen Ramsey
2. CLE QB Carson Wentz
3. SD OT Laremy Tunsil
4. DAL DE Joey Bosa
5. JAX LB Myles Jack
6. BAL DE DeForest Buckner
7. SF QB Jared Goff
8. PHI RB Ezekiel Elliott
9. TB CB Vernon Hargreaves III
10. NYG OT Ronnie Stanley
11. CHI DT A'Shawn Robinson
12. NO DT Sheldon Rankins
13. MIA DT Jarran Reed
14. OAK LB Reggie Ragland
15. LA QB Paxton Lynch
16. DET OT Jack Conklin
17. ATL DE Shaq Lawson
18. IND OT Taylor Decker
19. BUF DE Kevin Dodd
20. NYJ LB Leonard Floyd
21. WAS LB Darren Lee
22. HOU WR Laquon Treadwell
23. MIN WR Corey Coleman
24. CIN WR Josh Doctson
25. PIT CB Eli Apple
26. SEA OT Germain Ifedi
27. GB DT Vernon Butler
28. KC CB William Jackson III
29. ARZ OC Ryan Kelly
30. CAR OT Jason Spriggs
31. DEN TE Hunter Henry

[Oviedo]

Ruthless, I would be perfectly happy if the draft turned out that way, and I think you're reasoning in all this is sound. However, I am still an advocate, because of the advancing years of Ben and the upcoming contract redo's for Bell and AB (among others), that I think the Steelers need to be a small bit un-Steeler like and do a little more cap work and sign a few more FAs (to reasonable contracts--that is what you'll get after the first few days of big bucks FA is done). The uncertainty of having D entrusted to a bunch of rookies coming up big is too risky for an otherwise SB favorite or very near favorite, IMO.

So, get the cap money you need (and no more than that--excess room under the cap doesn't help you if you don't use it--front load some contracts to use it up, and save yourself from cap purgatory in the future) to sign a few modest improvements to the D. My take: re-up Timmons to get him down from the ugly $15M cap hit this year, but do it in a way that makes cutting him a cap win in a couple years (3yr/24M/9M bonus, where year one is base of 6M, pro-rated bonus of 3M=9M against cap, savings of 6M), designate Cortez as a June 1 cut (save 3M), extend DeCastro long-term (6 years) save 2M from his 8M cap hit, dump or trade (wouldn't it be nice to get a 6th or 7th for at least one of these guys???) M. Adams, S. Thomas, and Suisham (more than 2M total savings) and factor in the 0.7M we save from Martavis being suspended, and you have almost 14M of cap space without any damage to the team. That will pay for your rookies and help you solve a few other spots.

So, the other spots: FA signing of T. Knighton to play NT for those 1/3 of a plays a NT is in. Make it a cap friendly 3/13.5/4.5, with year one 1.5/1.5 pro-rate. 3M against the cap and he gets 6M this year. Second, a proven DE to rotate in (think Kirschke), given our two DEs more of a breather--M. DeVito, 3/6.9/2.4. The cap hit is small, so we maximize use of the cap this year to save money in the future.

Then, I see the draft like this:

1) M. Alexander-CB. Apple is rising, and with W. Jackson III, but both may need some greening. I see Ramsey (who may play CB or S), Hargreaves, Alexander, and Fuller (if healthy) as the only CBs that can start for us year one. Alexander takes away one side of the field and has been falling lately.

2) M. Killebrew-SS. Athletic and hard-hitting, V. Bell, the best and most ready pure SS (who knows about Cravens) is already gone. Golden may start, but Killebrew will get some time with KB as our DC.

3) D.J. Reader-NT/DL. Big run-stuffer with good short-area burst. Learns under Pot Roast.

4) J. Simmons-FS. Loading up on S, this guy is smart and underrated. Will be a starter in the NFL. (Ever notice how many high-drafted S wash-out, and many late rounders end up starters--hardest position to predict success).

6) C. Maggitt-OLB. Like J. Smith, injuries tell the story. If he can get healthy, a natural edge-rusher. Not abig risk with a 6th.

7) N. Kwiatkowski-ILB. Former S recognizes routes for coverage and has a good motor.

7) Lowry-DE (Northwestern). Tall guy with a good motor, fits our scheme. Future replacanement as he greens behind DeVito.

With these modest moves, our team D improves greatly and we're poised for #7 right away. Very do-doable, and not over-aggressive.

Selling out for defense? That ignores we need offensive line depth and our WR situation where Wheaton is in a contract year and Bryant may never play for us again.

[Slapstick]

Do we need offensive line depth? We have four OTs with starting experience...we have Wallace and Hubbard for interior depth...

Do we need to worry about an additional WR this year? Bryant may never may for us again, that's true, but Wheaton is around for this year along with Brown, Heyward-Bey and Coates...that's our top 4...there are guys under contract that we like who could step in as a 5th or even a 4th WR when necessary...

[Iron City Inc.]

Selling out for defense? That ignores we need offensive line depth and our WR situation where Wheaton is in a contract year and Bryant may never play for us again.

Chuck Noll once said "Sometimes you can't get everything you need in one draft"!

[RuthlessBurgher]

With Tennessee giving up the first overall pick to the Rams, they now have a treasure trove of day two picks (three 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders), in case they want to move back up for another first round pick (if they use the 15th overall pick to fill their biggest need at OT with Ronnie Stanley or Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker, there may be a defender or offensive weapon available at #25 that they really like and might want to move up to get). The trade chart says that the 45th overall pick and the 64th overall pick together are worth exactly the same as the 25th overall pick (720 points). So I'm going to generate another mock with a trade down.

Trade 1.25 to TEN for 2.45 & 3.64

2.45 CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech 5'11" 187
2.58 DT Austin Johnson, Penn State 6'4" 314
3.64 SS Karl Joseph, West Virginia 5'10" 205
3.89 LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame 6'2" 223
4.123 CB Harlan Miller, Southeastern Louisiana 6'0" 182
6.220 WR Moritz Boehringer, Germany 6'4" 227
7.229 LB Ian Seau, Nevada 6'2" 259
7.246 DE Delvon Simmons, Southern California 6'5" 295

I'm going to also need to update my full first round mock soon to reflect these new developments...

[Iron City Inc.]

Ruthless 3 injured players of the top 4. High reward but high risk to say the least. Doesn't mean it can't work but someone is getting fired if it didn't.

[steeler_george]

WOW....huge trade! Back to your draft, I was thinking the same top 3 players we select should be Joseph, Fuller, and a DT OLB . I see the odds of us trading even more, between rams having so many picks, and with Denver's need for a QB.