How much do you want the steelers to pay wallace?

[Sugar]

Its funny how you can't logically infer that he wants A LOT of money from all of the facts that are there in front of you. What else would keep him from signing his contract and showing up? Maybe he's clinically depressed because Mr Roger's died?!?

What is "A LOT" of money? Do we even know what either side is offering? Nothing's been reported so it's all anyone's guess.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Well, as of right now aren't the Steelers about 5 million below the salary cap after releasing Scott the other day? Anything above 5 million then would come at a cost not only monetarily, but the Steelers would also have to release another player in all likelihood to get Wallace under the cap.

That's not true. They could theoretically give him a $5 year $50 million deal with a $20 million signing bonus (I used these numbers to make the math easy). Looks like his cap hit should be $10 million, which we cannot afford with only $5 million worth of space...well that's how it works in hockey, but not in football. They could simply give him a veteran minimum salary for 2012 ($700,000, I believe), plus the pro-rated portion of his signing bonus, which in this case would be $4 million per year. In this example, his cap hit for 2012 would be $4.7 million.

[Keyplay1]

114

21.2

10.5

63.2

30.7

The above #'s are stats for Wallace. Besides the standard stats this site has some advanced stats. The 114 is the number of times he was targeted. 21.2 %of team targets. 10.5 yds per target
63.2 catch rate [% of targets received]. 30.7 %deep

Targets (Tgts) – The number of pass attempts directed at a particular receiver. Rank 24
Target Percentage (Tgt%) – A receiver’s proportion of his team’s pass attempts targeted to him. Tgt% excludes passes thrown away, passes not intended for any particular receiver, and spikes. Rank 22
Yards per Target (YPT) – A receiver’s average yards gained per pass attempted to him. Rank 11
Catch Rate (CR) – The proportion of passes targeted to a receiver that are caught. Rank 18
Deep Pass Percentage (Deep%) – The proportion of pass targets in which a receiver is greater than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. ---Rank 33---

[url]http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?year=2011&pos=WR&season=reg[/url]

I noticed the link did not change colors. Probably won't work. Simple enough to find the site however.

I initially went there to try and confirm the stat about the Steelers ranking 18th in deep throws. But, then this also caught my eye. A stat I like is the Catch %. Another big surprise [to me] was Hines Ward ranked #2 catching 73% of his targets.

The reason why I did not post the pages to show where he stood in relation to others was it was too much content for the message and would not post. Anyway, the site seems worth checking out.

btw: another surprise. Deep% 33 ??? Not sure if that is a team stat or if the # of times MW was targeted deep.

[Keyplay1]

Thought it might help to figure what to pay Wallace if the money given some others was known. I had some trouble finding this for 2012 but stumbled on this site.

[url]http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/average/dallas-cowboys/wide-receiver/[/url]

1	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/miles-austin/"]Miles Austin[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$8,166,857
2	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/dez-bryant/"]Dez Bryant[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$2,360,000
3	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/kevin-ogletree/"]Kevin Ogletree[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$615,000
4	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/danny-coale/"]Danny Coale[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$572,513
5	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/dwayne-harris/"]Dwayne Harris[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$559,145
6	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/andre-holmes/"]Andre Holmes[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$465,000
	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/teddy-williams/"]Teddy Williams[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$465,000
8	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/saalim-hakim/"]Saalim Hakim[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$48,333

1	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/dez-bryant/"]Dez Bryant[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$1,335,000
2	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/miles-austin/"]Miles Austin[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$1,150,000
3	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/kevin-ogletree/"]Kevin Ogletree[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$615,000
4	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/dwayne-harris/"]Dwayne Harris[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$465,000
	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/andre-holmes/"]Andre Holmes[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$465,000
	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/teddy-williams/"]Teddy Williams[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$465,000
7	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/danny-coale/"]Danny Coale[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$390,000
	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/"][/URL]	[URL="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/saalim-hakim/"]Saalim Hakim[/URL] at Wide Receiver	$390,000

Was going to post the base salary and average salary of several teams. GB, NO, PIT etc. but this site takes up too much space. All the teams are there.

[flippy]

I want them to pay him the least they can so they have as much left over for other players next year. But I also want it to be enough and incentive laden enough to keep Wallace motivated to produce.

I don't want to pay him too much. But I don't want him sulking either. Pay him just right. That's all I ask.

As a Steelers fan, I always want my team to get a deal and every other team to overpay for guys. Whatever positions us to win, that's what I want.

[papillon]

That's not true. They could theoretically give him a $5 year $50 million deal with a $20 million signing bonus (I used these numbers to make the math easy). Looks like his cap hit should be $10 million, which we cannot afford with only $5 million worth of space...well that's how it works in hockey, but not in football. They could simply give him a veteran minimum salary for 2012 ($700,000, I believe), plus the pro-rated portion of his signing bonus, which in this case would be $4 million per year. In this example, his cap hit for 2012 would be $4.7 million.

The Steelers are still going to have to squeeze DeCastro in as well. Or, does each team get a cap number for rookies that is separate from the rest of the team? His contract will probably have a $750,000 to 1,250,000 cap hit I would think. The Steelers are not in a good position from a cap perspective to give Wallace relatively big money, unless, they can get an extra year added on to the contract and reduce his pro-rated signing bonus. I believe there will be a Mike Wallace to be had in almost every round of future drafts, except maybe the 7th. His contract could haunt the Steelers for a few years if they aren't careful, IMO.

Don't the Steelers have to leave a little room, say 1-2 million in case of injuries, suspensions, etc? I'm by no means a contract negotiator and I don't have all the facts about the Steeler cap situation. Does the current cap number include Wallace's tender? If it does that would add a nice chunk of change for the Steelers to use to help sign Wallace. It would increase the amount they have to spend by the amount of the tender, which is, I believe, $2.75 million right now.

Pappy

[D Rock]

Here is a link to the WR average salary lists:

[URL]http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/average/wide-receiver/[/URL]

I just went through every team's WR roster and picked out all the guys essentially equal to and above Wallace's production over the past 3 years. Here are their contract averages and years signed:

Better than Wallace:

Roddy White - 8 (2009)
Andre Johnson - 8.957 (2010)
Brandon Marshall - 9.46 (2010)
Larry Fitzgerald - 16.0625 (2011)
Wes Welker - 9.515 (franchise tag, 2012)
Calvin Johnson - 18.8125 (2012)


Pretty much equal to Wallace:

Greg Jennings - 6.72 (2009)
Hakeem Nicks - 2.508 (rookie contract, 2009)
Miles Austin - 8.167 (2010)
Jordy Nelson - 4.45 (pre-breakout season, 2011)
Steve Smith - 9.4375 (2012)
Marques Colston - 7.26 (2012)
Vincent Jackson - 11.1 (2012)
Reggie Wayne - 5.833 (end of career contract, 2012)
Dwayne Bowe - 9.515 (franchise tag, 2012)
Desean Jackson - 10.2 (2012)


Salary for top WRs has pretty much gone up 1 million a year since 2009. Colston is a ridiculous steal fore New Orleans at his price tag, and the Packers locked up Jordy Nelson just in time before he went big last season. Besides that, these numbers certainly show that Wallace is in the 10-11 million/year price range according to his production, and certainly no lower than 9M/year. The Steelers may not offer that...they may not be able to...but this shows that some team would. The only single team that has gotten a good price in the past 2 years was New Orleans with Colston. I don't expect that to happen with Wallace...I still don't know how it happened with Colston.

[D Rock]

Consider this: In 2014 the team will have about 34 million tied up between Harrison, Woodley, and Timmons, split fairly evenly all around. That's going to be the financial noose around the teams neck if there is one, not any contracts given to Wallace and Brown, which if given will be given knowing the current landscape of the salary cap and CBA. The cap is expected to stay pretty much flat through the 2015 season.

[hawaiiansteel]

Consider this: In 2014 the team will have about 34 million tied up between Harrison, Woodley, and Timmons, split fairly evenly all around.

I don't believe Deebo will still be playing in 2014...

[D Rock]

I don't believe Deebo will still be playing in 2014...

Neither do I, but you have to factor in his money now in case he is. If he is cut after the 2013 season, he will still be on the books for the remaining 4,115,500 of his bonus money. It will save the 7,575,000 at that point, but the 4+ million is a lot of dead money. The team has ~9 million this year in dead money. Casey Hampton (5 mil) and Larry Foote (3.6 mil) will be off the books next year, so that is a lot of money that can then go to Antonio Brown for a new contract, and also kick some of it to whatever Wallace needs to be paid.

Here's another upcoming decision: Ike Taylor is getting ~4.3 mil this year in cap space. Next year it jumps way up to 9.5, and in 2014 it is 10.5. Ike will be 33 to start next season. If the three young corners show some skill, it can reasonably be expected that Ike Taylor will be a cap casualty. Willie Colon also jumps almost 5 million next year from 2.85 to 7.7. If the 4 young linemen flash the ability to play to their expected abilities, then Colon likely is too expensive to keep as the oldest and worst of the starting 5.


Moral of the story...there are A LOT of places where the team can find money in the next couple of years if they need it. Farrior, Ward, and Smith are likely just the tip of the iceberg in a total generational shift.

[Keyplay1]

I wouldn't work out a deal right now b/c of Antonio Brown.
So I'd stay right where we are at and let Wallace and Brown prove this year who's the better WR.
We won't be keeping both and I'd put my money on BROWN to be the better of the two.

This sounds like a good idea. But, how would it be worked out? Yes, it would be nice for the Steelers to get another year to confirm their evaluation of the player but then it could backfire and he could absolutely price himself out of their range.
]
As D Rock has pointed out MW's stat production is very high. I was actually surprised looking at what he has done the past 3 years and in almost all the categories I think are important he is right there with the best of them and in many cases above these top 10 really high priced people. The real Steeler fans though, do know there are still some concerns.

The question is can the Steelers risk losing this player. I don't think so. My guess is he will sign by Thursday afternoon.

Uhh! It's either that or perhaps the rumor that Hines Ward has his dancing shoes in the shoemaker shop getting spikes put on is true. LOL

[phillyesq]

I go 5 years, 40-42 million, with approximately $18 million guaranteed. The Steelers could essentially keep Wallace for 2 years at $12-13 million, leaving him with no guarantee thereafter. A deal like this pays Wallace better and gives him more security up front, but pays him less than he might make on the open market in the later years.

I'd structure the deal to use as much of the cap as possible for this year, leaving a small allowance to sign an injury replacement if necessary.

[flippy]

Here is a link to the WR average salary lists:

[URL]http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/average/wide-receiver/[/URL]

I just went through every team's WR roster and picked out all the guys essentially equal to and above Wallace's production over the past 3 years. Here are their contract averages and years signed:

Better than Wallace:

Roddy White - 8 (2009)
Andre Johnson - 8.957 (2010)
Brandon Marshall - 9.46 (2010)
Larry Fitzgerald - 16.0625 (2011)
Wes Welker - 9.515 (franchise tag, 2012)
Calvin Johnson - 18.8125 (2012)


Pretty much equal to Wallace:

Greg Jennings - 6.72 (2009)
Hakeem Nicks - 2.508 (rookie contract, 2009)
Miles Austin - 8.167 (2010)
Jordy Nelson - 4.45 (pre-breakout season, 2011)
Steve Smith - 9.4375 (2012)
Marques Colston - 7.26 (2012)
Vincent Jackson - 11.1 (2012)
Reggie Wayne - 5.833 (end of career contract, 2012)
Dwayne Bowe - 9.515 (franchise tag, 2012)
Desean Jackson - 10.2 (2012)


Salary for top WRs has pretty much gone up 1 million a year since 2009. Colston is a ridiculous steal fore New Orleans at his price tag, and the Packers locked up Jordy Nelson just in time before he went big last season. Besides that, these numbers certainly show that Wallace is in the 10-11 million/year price range according to his production, and certainly no lower than 9M/year. The Steelers may not offer that...they may not be able to...but this shows that some team would. The only single team that has gotten a good price in the past 2 years was New Orleans with Colston. I don't expect that to happen with Wallace...I still don't know how it happened with Colston.

I think this list is likely Mike Wallace's starting point. But for the Steelers, they owe him $2.7M this year, so that's their starting point. Actually it should be less because Wallace never signed the tender.

$2.7M + ~$10M + ~$10M is worth about $23M over the next 3 years which could be close to the point where he loses he speed and some of his value.

So Wallace is pretty much against that wall of $23M if we franchise him to keep him for 3 years at which point, he may not be worth the big contract if he loses a step.

So ultimately, I'd say reasonable would be:

3 yrs - $7M/yr
4 yrs - $8M/yr
5 yrs - $9M/yr

Maybe a little discount from there for guaranteeing up front money.

[phillyesq]

I think this list is likely Mike Wallace's starting point. But for the Steelers, they owe him $2.7M this year, so that's their starting point. Actually it should be less because Wallace never signed the tender.

$2.7M + ~$10M + ~$10M is worth about $23M over the next 3 years which could be close to the point where he loses he speed and some of his value.

So Wallace is pretty much against that wall of $23M if we franchise him to keep him for 3 years at which point, he may not be worth the big contract if he loses a step.

So ultimately, I'd say reasonable would be:

3 yrs - $7M/yr
4 yrs - $8M/yr
5 yrs - $9M/yr

Maybe a little discount from there for guaranteeing up front money.

Flippy, I agree that the fact that Wallace can be controlled this year for just $2.7 is a big factor to consider when evaluating his contract. Guys like DeSean and Vince Jackson aren't equal comps because, as potential UFAs (and having been Franchise tagged in D. Jackson's case) they had more leverage.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Does the current cap number include Wallace's tender? If it does that would add a nice chunk of change for the Steelers to use to help sign Wallace. It would increase the amount they have to spend by the amount of the tender, which is, I believe, $2.75 million right now.

Yes, I believe that the $2,742,000 has already been applied to our cap when we issued the RFA tender (even though Mike has not signed the tender). We have enough to sign DeCastro, extend Wallace, and still have $1-2 million left over in the kitty for emergencies.