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Plugging the Holes: AFC North
Important offseason questions about Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh
Football Outsiders
Archive
Football Outsiders continues its "Plugging the Holes" series, in which it targets the offseason issues facing each team in the NFL by division.
Baltimore Ravens: Is there trouble ahead for the defense?
"Trouble" is a relative word, especially since the Ravens' defense isn't about to resemble the Lions' anytime soon. But some negative trends in 2009 need to be addressed in the offseason. Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics had Baltimore as the third-most-efficient defense in the NFL and seventh against the pass. But a closer look reveals that much of that pass defense success came from the excellent play of the linebackers and safety Ed Reed. Baltimore was the best team in the NFL at shutting down the opponent's tight end, and third best at defending passes to opposing running backs. Wide receivers had much greater success, with the Ravens ranked in the middle of the NFL pack. Some of the trouble against the pass can be attributed to a decline in the front seven. Baltimore's Adjusted Sack Rate dropped to 23rd in the NFL, although the defense was still stout against the run.
The Ravens have some aging parts surrounding Pro Bowl starter Haloti Ngata. Ray Lewis and Trevor Pryce will be 35 next year, Kelly Gregg 34. Linebacker Terrell Suggs saw his pass-rushing production drop sharply in 2009. A banged-up Tavares Gooden never established himself at the "Jack" linebacker spot, forcing the team to start undrafted rookie Dannell Ellerbe. The secondary faces the frightening prospect of Reed's threatened retirement, plus a lack of depth at corner, exacerbated by the knee injury to promising rookie Lardarius Webb in December. The 2009 departure of defensive coordinator/mouth-that-roared Rex Ryan (not to mention several starters, including linebacker Bart Scott and safety Jim Leonhard) also has had a deleterious effect.
Small wonder, then, that despite a glaring need at wide receiver, the talk around Owings Mills is that the team could go defense-heavy in the draft. Without an infusion of talent, the unit could decline more rapidly in 2010.
Cincinnati Bengals: Will they complete a forward pass in 2010?
The Bengals made a conscious decision after 2008 to compete in the smashmouth AFC North with a power running game and a strong defense. Mission accomplished. Problem was, the team totally lost its ability to stretch the field, and in a league that prizes throwing the ball downfield more than ever, that's not a long-term growth strategy. QB Carson Palmer was 19th in the NFL in our DVOA ratings, and was more erratic than he's been since entering the league, completing only 60.5 percent of his passes. Whispers that he wasn't over the elbow injury that cost him the 2008 season grew louder as the Bengals' passing game got worse. To his credit, Palmer did lead several late-game comebacks and bought into the team's commitment to the run despite being unable to build any momentum in the passing attack.
His receiving corps certainly didn't help. Only Chad Ochocinco was reliably capable of getting open, and he was usually double-teamed, which contributed to a 58 percent catch rate. The death of Chris Henry was tragic, but he was already on injured reserve -- the team missed his deep threat potential desperately, and Palmer stopped looking downfield once he went out. Laveranues Coles had a poor 57 percent catch rate, a far cry from that of the sure-handed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, whom he was signed to replace. The Bengals lost their top two tight ends, Reggie Kelly and Ben Utecht, in training camp, leaving the position a block-first, -second and -third proposition, held down by the slow-footed J.P. Foschi and the iron-handed Daniel Coats. Third-round pick Chase Coffman never recovered from an offseason foot injury and the tongue-lashings he received on "Hard Knocks."
The offensive line recovered from an abominable 2008 to run-block more than respectably -- the Bengals actually led the league converting runs in short yardage (just less than 80 percent of the time) -- but the unit struggled to pass-block. Palmer was sacked only 29 times, but the team totally reined in its five- and seven-step drop-back packages. By season's end, the Bengals were more conservative than Barry Goldwater. If the team is to build on its 2009 rebound, it must upgrade personnel on the flanks, get some speed in the lineup, and return to within shouting distance of its old, high-flying self.
Cleveland Browns: Who is running things here?
It's hard to begin assessing the 2010 Cleveland Browns until we know exactly what sort of offense and defense the team will run; what personnel needs to be kept or acquired to fit the schemes; and what the new brain trust, which includes capologist Bryan Wiedmeier, thinks of the current roster. We can guess at certain elements -- new president Mike Holmgren is a West Coast offense guru; new GM Tom Heckert is an astute drafter of interior linemen -- but for the moment, rumors of Cleveland's interest in players like defensive end Julius Peppers cannot be properly assessed.
The Browns appeared to be the worst team in the NFL at the three-quarter pole of 2009 but ended the season playing hard for coach Eric Mangini, winning its last four games. Mirage? Player self-interest? Or actual progress? The four wins were all over non-playoff teams, but the Browns found an identity behind Jerome Harrison's punishing runs and all-purpose weapon Josh Cribbs making things happen with direct snaps and on special teams. The semblance of actual football left new boss Holmgren with little choice but to keep the "Mangenius," for better or worse. How Mangini works with others will determine much in 2010 and beyond.
One area of concern, regardless of who calls the shots -- is depth on Cleveland's defense, particularly in the secondary. Cleveland's coverage ranked right at the bottom of the league in stopping opposing tight ends (32nd), passes to running backs (31st), and slot receivers (27th). Cornerback Eric Wright is developing well, but overall there is a paucity of speed and covering ability among the linebackers and safeties in particular.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Are the Steelers still the Steelers?
When Cincinnati slugged out an 18-12 victory in Pittsburgh in mid-November, Mike Ditka called it "the most blatant example of identity theft" he could recall. The classic Steelers formula of running the ball and playing great defense was seemingly absent in 2009, as the Steelers followed their Super Bowl title by failing to qualify for the playoffs.
Fans in the Steel City shouldn't fret too much. While offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has been under fire for a supposed tendency to throw too often on third-and-short, the Steelers ran it 66 percent of the time in power situations (defined as third or fourth and 2 or less, and on the goal line). The NFL average is 63 percent, putting Pittsburgh right in the middle of the league. Also a myth: the conventional wisdom that Arians was afraid to run the ball in short-yardage situations because of deterioration along the line. Pittsburgh's O-line, actually fifth in the NFL in power situations, was converting 72 percent of the time. It seems Steelers fans won't be happy until the return of a Rocky Bleier-Jerome Bettis backfield, not to mention 1975 rules and tendencies.
The real reason why Pittsburgh threw it more than in previous years is that Ben Roethlisberger is the team's best offensive player. Our metrics rank Big Ben as the eighth-best quarterback in the league, both in total value (1,392 DYAR) and value per play (27.9 percent DVOA). His size and ability to conjure something from nothing have remade the team's identity, and probably none too soon -- if 2009 taught us anything, it's that the NFL is a passing league.
It was on defense that the Steelers let down. Overall, the defense wasn't bad -- its DVOA was eighth in the league, albeit down from the No. 1 slot a year ago. Obviously, Troy Polamalu's return to health should improve the unit at every level. But was his absence that important? Apparently so. In the five games Polamalu played, the Steelers allowed 5.36 yards per pass with seven interceptions and a pass defense DVOA of minus-30.9 percent. If they had played at that level the whole year, they would have ranked second in pass defense, trailing only the Jets. In the 11 games without Polamalu, the Steelers allowed 5.96 yards per pass with only five interceptions and a pass defense DVOA of 18.9 percent. That would have ranked them 27th in pass defense for the entire season.
Rob Weintraub is a writer for Football Outsiders.
[url="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=4908487&action"]http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/ ... 487&action[/url]
Important offseason questions about Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh
Football Outsiders
Archive
Football Outsiders continues its "Plugging the Holes" series, in which it targets the offseason issues facing each team in the NFL by division.
Baltimore Ravens: Is there trouble ahead for the defense?
"Trouble" is a relative word, especially since the Ravens' defense isn't about to resemble the Lions' anytime soon. But some negative trends in 2009 need to be addressed in the offseason. Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics had Baltimore as the third-most-efficient defense in the NFL and seventh against the pass. But a closer look reveals that much of that pass defense success came from the excellent play of the linebackers and safety Ed Reed. Baltimore was the best team in the NFL at shutting down the opponent's tight end, and third best at defending passes to opposing running backs. Wide receivers had much greater success, with the Ravens ranked in the middle of the NFL pack. Some of the trouble against the pass can be attributed to a decline in the front seven. Baltimore's Adjusted Sack Rate dropped to 23rd in the NFL, although the defense was still stout against the run.
The Ravens have some aging parts surrounding Pro Bowl starter Haloti Ngata. Ray Lewis and Trevor Pryce will be 35 next year, Kelly Gregg 34. Linebacker Terrell Suggs saw his pass-rushing production drop sharply in 2009. A banged-up Tavares Gooden never established himself at the "Jack" linebacker spot, forcing the team to start undrafted rookie Dannell Ellerbe. The secondary faces the frightening prospect of Reed's threatened retirement, plus a lack of depth at corner, exacerbated by the knee injury to promising rookie Lardarius Webb in December. The 2009 departure of defensive coordinator/mouth-that-roared Rex Ryan (not to mention several starters, including linebacker Bart Scott and safety Jim Leonhard) also has had a deleterious effect.
Small wonder, then, that despite a glaring need at wide receiver, the talk around Owings Mills is that the team could go defense-heavy in the draft. Without an infusion of talent, the unit could decline more rapidly in 2010.
Cincinnati Bengals: Will they complete a forward pass in 2010?
The Bengals made a conscious decision after 2008 to compete in the smashmouth AFC North with a power running game and a strong defense. Mission accomplished. Problem was, the team totally lost its ability to stretch the field, and in a league that prizes throwing the ball downfield more than ever, that's not a long-term growth strategy. QB Carson Palmer was 19th in the NFL in our DVOA ratings, and was more erratic than he's been since entering the league, completing only 60.5 percent of his passes. Whispers that he wasn't over the elbow injury that cost him the 2008 season grew louder as the Bengals' passing game got worse. To his credit, Palmer did lead several late-game comebacks and bought into the team's commitment to the run despite being unable to build any momentum in the passing attack.
His receiving corps certainly didn't help. Only Chad Ochocinco was reliably capable of getting open, and he was usually double-teamed, which contributed to a 58 percent catch rate. The death of Chris Henry was tragic, but he was already on injured reserve -- the team missed his deep threat potential desperately, and Palmer stopped looking downfield once he went out. Laveranues Coles had a poor 57 percent catch rate, a far cry from that of the sure-handed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, whom he was signed to replace. The Bengals lost their top two tight ends, Reggie Kelly and Ben Utecht, in training camp, leaving the position a block-first, -second and -third proposition, held down by the slow-footed J.P. Foschi and the iron-handed Daniel Coats. Third-round pick Chase Coffman never recovered from an offseason foot injury and the tongue-lashings he received on "Hard Knocks."
The offensive line recovered from an abominable 2008 to run-block more than respectably -- the Bengals actually led the league converting runs in short yardage (just less than 80 percent of the time) -- but the unit struggled to pass-block. Palmer was sacked only 29 times, but the team totally reined in its five- and seven-step drop-back packages. By season's end, the Bengals were more conservative than Barry Goldwater. If the team is to build on its 2009 rebound, it must upgrade personnel on the flanks, get some speed in the lineup, and return to within shouting distance of its old, high-flying self.
Cleveland Browns: Who is running things here?
It's hard to begin assessing the 2010 Cleveland Browns until we know exactly what sort of offense and defense the team will run; what personnel needs to be kept or acquired to fit the schemes; and what the new brain trust, which includes capologist Bryan Wiedmeier, thinks of the current roster. We can guess at certain elements -- new president Mike Holmgren is a West Coast offense guru; new GM Tom Heckert is an astute drafter of interior linemen -- but for the moment, rumors of Cleveland's interest in players like defensive end Julius Peppers cannot be properly assessed.
The Browns appeared to be the worst team in the NFL at the three-quarter pole of 2009 but ended the season playing hard for coach Eric Mangini, winning its last four games. Mirage? Player self-interest? Or actual progress? The four wins were all over non-playoff teams, but the Browns found an identity behind Jerome Harrison's punishing runs and all-purpose weapon Josh Cribbs making things happen with direct snaps and on special teams. The semblance of actual football left new boss Holmgren with little choice but to keep the "Mangenius," for better or worse. How Mangini works with others will determine much in 2010 and beyond.
One area of concern, regardless of who calls the shots -- is depth on Cleveland's defense, particularly in the secondary. Cleveland's coverage ranked right at the bottom of the league in stopping opposing tight ends (32nd), passes to running backs (31st), and slot receivers (27th). Cornerback Eric Wright is developing well, but overall there is a paucity of speed and covering ability among the linebackers and safeties in particular.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Are the Steelers still the Steelers?
When Cincinnati slugged out an 18-12 victory in Pittsburgh in mid-November, Mike Ditka called it "the most blatant example of identity theft" he could recall. The classic Steelers formula of running the ball and playing great defense was seemingly absent in 2009, as the Steelers followed their Super Bowl title by failing to qualify for the playoffs.
Fans in the Steel City shouldn't fret too much. While offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has been under fire for a supposed tendency to throw too often on third-and-short, the Steelers ran it 66 percent of the time in power situations (defined as third or fourth and 2 or less, and on the goal line). The NFL average is 63 percent, putting Pittsburgh right in the middle of the league. Also a myth: the conventional wisdom that Arians was afraid to run the ball in short-yardage situations because of deterioration along the line. Pittsburgh's O-line, actually fifth in the NFL in power situations, was converting 72 percent of the time. It seems Steelers fans won't be happy until the return of a Rocky Bleier-Jerome Bettis backfield, not to mention 1975 rules and tendencies.
The real reason why Pittsburgh threw it more than in previous years is that Ben Roethlisberger is the team's best offensive player. Our metrics rank Big Ben as the eighth-best quarterback in the league, both in total value (1,392 DYAR) and value per play (27.9 percent DVOA). His size and ability to conjure something from nothing have remade the team's identity, and probably none too soon -- if 2009 taught us anything, it's that the NFL is a passing league.
It was on defense that the Steelers let down. Overall, the defense wasn't bad -- its DVOA was eighth in the league, albeit down from the No. 1 slot a year ago. Obviously, Troy Polamalu's return to health should improve the unit at every level. But was his absence that important? Apparently so. In the five games Polamalu played, the Steelers allowed 5.36 yards per pass with seven interceptions and a pass defense DVOA of minus-30.9 percent. If they had played at that level the whole year, they would have ranked second in pass defense, trailing only the Jets. In the 11 games without Polamalu, the Steelers allowed 5.96 yards per pass with only five interceptions and a pass defense DVOA of 18.9 percent. That would have ranked them 27th in pass defense for the entire season.
Rob Weintraub is a writer for Football Outsiders.
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