NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

[SteelAbility]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Ok, here we go ...

Here are the Wild Card contenders in order of position RIGHT NOW (after 14 games):

BAL 8-6 (6-4 Conf) (3-2 Div)
DEN 8-6 (6-5 Conf) (3-2 Div)
JAX 7-7 (6-4 Conf) (3-3 Div)
MIA 7-7 (5-5 Conf) (4-2 Div)
NYJ 7-7 (5-5 Conf) (2-4 Div)
PIT 7-7 (4-6 Conf) (1-4 Div)
HOU 7-7 (4-6 Conf) (1-5 Div)
TEN 7-7 (4-7 Conf) (2-4 Div) (Note that TEN beats HOU in division tie-break)

Assuming we win out, MIA drops to 8-8 at best and is eliminated. So, we would eliminate one of the teams above us in that list. Actually MIA plays HOU this weekend. We should be rooting for MIA to win that to eliminate any doubt. I'm not sure if the "common games" tie-break would apply with us and HOU. Assuming DEN loses to PHI and beats KC at home and BAL does NOT lay an egg at Oakland, then we can tolerate anyone below us in that list finishing at 9-7 (HOU and TEN).

This means we need JAX to lose one (@NE, CLE) and the NYJ to lose one (@IND, CIN). IND is motivated only by 16-0 and they appear to be serious about that. CIN has lost the 2 seed, but are still in a race for the 3 seed. If CIN has their playoff position locked by week 17, I'm sure they will more than gladly kill two birds with one stone by resting their starters and helping knock us out of the playoffs (they play NYJ in week 17).

Remaining schedules ...

BAL @PIT, OAK
DEN @PHI, KC
JAX @NE, CLE
MIA HOU, PIT
NYJ @IND, CIN
PIT BAL, @MIA
HOU @MIA, NE
TEN SD, @SEA

Based on the above, the biggest results to watch for (in order of importance)

1. PHI over DEN
2. NE over JAX
3. IND over NYJ
4. MIA over HOU

TEN is a non-issue as long as we win out. Like I said, I'm not sure if the "common opponents" applies to PIT vs. HOU. MIA over HOU would eliminate all doubt.

CORRECTION: TEN is a total issue. Thanks to the wisdom of JUST-PLAIN-NASTY. We can tolerate HOU at 9-7 IF TEN also finishes 9-7. Hence ...

5. TEN over SD (this keeps alive our protection against HOU finishing 9-7). Since TEN gets SEA in their final game, this would almost lock down our protection against HOU finishing 9-7.




Factors In Our Favor

1. NE is still motivated for 2 seed and if not, then 3 seed, avoiding IND if they advance on their wild-card game. NE is much better at home than on the road. NE has historically owned JAX and NE's strength is the passing game which is JAX's weakness.

2. CIN is still motivated by 3-seed.

3. PHI is a very good team and DEN has to go on the road

4. IND appears to be motivated by 16-0.

5. MIA is motivated and plays HOU at home


Factors Against Us

1. CIN would gladly lay an egg to help knock us out.

2. I even think NE would lay an egg to knock us out. I can't be 100% sure what they are thinking. One win by SD and they lose a 1st round bye. SD has SEA in week 17. It's possible that #3 or #4 makes no difference to them in their minds. If we get Troy back and get into the playoffs we're going to be that 9-7 team that noone wants to play.

3. We still need help. Fortunately our "help" games involve matchups that are favorable to us (DEN @PHI, NYJ @IND, JAX @NE)

[flippy]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17

brothervad

Baltimore beat Denver the week before us, so in a 3 way tie Baltimore would get the 5 seed over Denver and then we'd get the 6 seed over Denver.

I don't believe this is how it works. In the event of 3-or-more you essentially have a wild-card seeding "playoff." Let's say 6 teams finish at 9-7 (other than the division winners). You have 6 teams vying for 2 wild-card spots. You FIRST apply tie-breaks within each division to see who "advances." If you don't "advance" you are eliminated from the playoffs.

In the event that PIT, BAL, and DEN all finish 9-7 you have 3 teams vying for 2 spots. FIRST you apply division tie-breaks where BAL knocks us out on division record. Finished. Now you have two teams vying for two spots and it's an issue who gets what seed. In that case BAL would get 5 due to head-to-head and DEN would get 6.

So, yes, we are stuck rooting for KC/OAK in week 17. At least it's a case of OR and not a case of AND.

In this scenario, Baltimore would get the 5 and then you start from the beginning of the rules to determine the 6 seed. Pit would then get it based on head to head.

[JUST-PLAIN-NASTY]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

This week.
Steelers beat ravens.
Broncos lose to Eagles.
Jets lose to Colts.
Jags lose to Patriots.
Dolphins beat Texans.

We control our own destiny going into the Dolphins game. Beat Dolphins and Ravens beat Raiders...Steelers #6 seed. Beat Dolphins and Ravens lose to Raiders...Steelers #5 seed.

[SteelAbility]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Here is my ask to make it simple:

Baltimore 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 3-3 Division record)--assuming they beat Oakland, but lose to PGH
Denver 9-7 (7-5 conference record, 4-2 Division record)--assuming they beat KC, but lose to Philly
Pittsburgh 9-7 (6-6 conference record, 2-4 Division record)--assuming run the table

Assuming that Jax, Tenn, Miami, Houston get to 8 losses

2 seeds--3 teams what happens?

by looks of things Denver gets the #5 seed after Balt eliminates Pittsburgh in the 3 - way for first tiebreakers for the #5 seed.

then it looks like Balt gets the 6th seed based on head to head matchup.

Is that right?

Please tell me I don't have to root for KC, or Oakland on week 17

brothervad

Baltimore beat Denver the week before us, so in a 3 way tie Baltimore would get the 5 seed over Denver and then we'd get the 6 seed over Denver.

I don't believe this is how it works. In the event of 3-or-more you essentially have a wild-card seeding "playoff." Let's say 6 teams finish at 9-7 (other than the division winners). You have 6 teams vying for 2 wild-card spots. You FIRST apply tie-breaks within each division to see who "advances." If you don't "advance" you are eliminated from the playoffs.

In the event that PIT, BAL, and DEN all finish 9-7 you have 3 teams vying for 2 spots. FIRST you apply division tie-breaks where BAL knocks us out on division record. Finished. Now you have two teams vying for two spots and it's an issue who gets what seed. In that case BAL would get 5 due to head-to-head and DEN would get 6.

So, yes, we are stuck rooting for KC/OAK in week 17. At least it's a case of OR and not a case of AND.

In this scenario, Baltimore would get the 5 and then you start from the beginning of the rules to determine the 6 seed. Pit would then get it based on head to head.

You are correct. I looked it up. The Wild Cards are determined by iterative technique. I didn't realize that until all of this 7-7 craziness mandated investigation.

[flippy]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

[Flasteel]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

We would lose out to Houston based on common opponents. However, if the Rats go 9-7, they would beat out Denver (head to head), Houston (conference record), and us (division record) and secure the 5 seed. The 6th seed would then come down to us Denver and Houston. In this scenario, we catch a break with the Texans. The first step involved with three teams is divisional record. Houston is only 1-5 in their division, so they would be eliminated. We have the head to head on Denver, so we get the 6th seed.

We are of course leaving out the Jet and Jags in this scenario, but I see them both going 8-8 at best...as I do with Houston.

[SteelAbility]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

This is a 3-way tie-break and assumes that DEN beats PHI but loses to KC ...

Round 1 (for #5 seed) DEN wins based on conference record. (7-5 versus both HOU/PIT at 6-6)

Round 2 (for #6 seed): HOU and PIT break tie with common opponents and PIT loses.

Now if by some weird fluke DEN beats PHI but loses to KC it gets really weird and I'm not sure what happens there. I think that would actually end up going to strength of victory. I don't know how "strength of victory" is defined. I think it means that it looks at the total point advantage over all victories. In that case, both HOU and DEN are pretty far ahead of us. We would have to win both our final games by huge blowouts to close that ground.

[SteelAbility]

Re: NFL tiebreakers, as asked on Plyoff Scenarios and Playoff tp

Here's the scenario I don't get:

Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh finish 9-7 and Denver gets the 5 seed and Houston gets the 6 seed.

Can someone explain why that would work that way?

We would lose out to Houston based on common opponents. However, if the Rats go 9-7, they would beat out Denver (head to head), Houston (conference record), and us (division record) and secure the 5 seed. The 6th seed would then come down to us Denver and Houston. In this scenario, we catch a break with the Texans. The first step involved with three teams is divisional record. Houston is only 1-5 in their division, so they would be eliminated. We have the head to head on Denver, so we get the 6th seed.

We are of course leaving out the Jet and Jags in this scenario, but I see them both going 8-8 at best...as I do with Houston.

I don't believe this is correct. Cross-division tie-breaks never involve comparing one team's divisional record with another team's divisional record.