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Draft Sharks
Who are the most productive RBs?
February 9, 2009
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by John Miller, Draftsharks.com
My favorite way to measure an RB’s production is to simply count his 10-yard plays. How many 10-yard plays, run or catch, did he make out of his total touches? This stat gives you an idea of who really moved the chains in 2008, or who might get more touches in 2009. Of course the “fresh legs” factor helps some of these backs – but production is production. Maurice Jones-Drew made a 10-yard play every 6.17 times he touched the football, 5th best in the NFL. Here are the 15 most productive RBs per this measure. Commentary on each RB below.
Who are the most productive RBs?
RB Touches 10 yd plays Avg
1 Derrick Ward 223 43 5.19
2 Jerious Norwood 132 25 5.28
3 Darren McFadden 142 25 5.68
4 Pierre Thomas 160 25 5.76
5 M. Jones-Drew 259 42 6.17
6 Mewelde Moore 180 27 6.67
7 DeAngelo Williams 295 44 6.70
8 Sammy Morris 173 25 6.92
9 Fred Jackson 167 23 7.26
10 Chris Johnson 294 40 7.35
11 Kevin Smith 277 36 7.69
12 Steve Slaton 318 41 7.76
13 Michael Turner 382 47 8.13
14 Adrian Peterson 384 47 8.17
15 Ronnie Brown 247 30 8.23
1. Derrick Ward, NYG: Ward popped a 10-yard play every 5.19 times he touched the ball. Amazing! Ward is a free agent just like teammate Brandon Jacobs. They can’t afford to keep both. Newsday’s Tom Rock says the chances of Ward being re-signed are “slim” because of all the money they’ll throw at Jacobs. Ward’s already 28 but his legs are 23 – he only has 411 career touches. Sure, Ward faced a lot of bruised and weary defenders after Jacobs inflicted pain on them... but his all-around skills are obvious. I predict either Denver or Seattle will land this guy.
2. Jerious Norwood, Falcons: Anyone who follows the league closely knows Norwood is probably the only RB who could take Chris Johnson in a race. His role is perfectly cemented as Michael Turner’s change-of-pace guy. Norwood leads all RBs over the last 3 years with a 5.8 average per carry. He almost broke a 55-yard TD reception in the wild-card game at Arizona but CB Rod Hood barely pulled his jersey enough so that another tackler got the angle on him. Norwood is going into a contract year so he should be a RB4 or RB5 on all fantasy rosters.
3. Darren McFadden, Raiders: This is the most surprising name on the list. McFadden had 10+ yards on 14 of his 113 runs, and 11 of his 29 catches. He broke off chunky pieces of yardage all year, and he did it with turf toe. Actually turf toes, plural. McFadden injured the right big toe on September 14 and the left one on October 19. The 4th overall pick played 3/4 of the season with a steel plate in one shoe. He hardly practiced either. Keep an eye on this guy, folks. Justin Fargas is coming off a torn MCL and could be cut, plus Oakland has tried to trade Michael Bush several times.
4. Pierre Thomas, Saints: Many FF sites are calling Pierre Thomas the best fantasy free-agent pickup of 2008. However, if you were a Draft Shark he might have already been on your fantasy roster to begin with. Pierre was our 2008 Mega-Sleeper Breakout Pick. We were talking about the scrappy Saint way before anyone even knew who he was. “Thomas could get 150+ touches in 2008,” we said in May. Pierre got 160 touches. In one 5-game stretch he generated 574 total yards and 8 TDs! It’s hard to assess the Saints backfield (Reggie Bush had microfracture knee surgery) this early, but now everybody knows who Thomas is.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: They can jump instantly from $16 million in cap room to $22 million by releasing the 33-year old Fred Taylor. He’s gone. Whaddya know, all of the sudden Jones-Drew could be a weekly 20-touch guy. MJD is barely 24 years old. He’s really never been injured either, save for a couple knee strains, and has only missed 1 game in his career. He’s scored an astounding 40 TDs via rush/catch/return in 3 years as a part-timer. If the Jags can get the O-line rebuilt (injuries everywhere in 200
MJD could be flying off the board in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.
6. Mewelde Moore, Steelers: This guy was a huge October pickup who helped fantasy teams stay competitive when RBs started dropping like flies. He compiled 449 total yards & 6 TDs in 4 starts in place of Willie Parker. It’s not the first time Moore has done this. Back in Minnesota he once posted 537 total yards in a 3-week span filling in for Onterrio Smith. Sadly, Willie Parker will be healthy in 2009 and Rashard Mendenhall’s shoulder will be fully healed. Moore could fade back into obscurity.
7. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: No other RB was as explosive in the 2nd half of the season. DeAngelo topped 100 yards 6 times after Halloween! He rushed for 993 yards and 15 TDs in the last 8 games alone. If you counted just D.W.’s last 8 games he would have still been the 13th best fantasy RB of 2008! Many don’t realize DeAngelo is playing at 220 lbs these days… that’s one thick halfback at 5’9. He’s not a fluke. At Memphis DeAngelo topped Ricky Williams to become the NCAA’s all-time all-purpose yardage leader with 7,573. And in 2007 D.W. only had 10+ carries in 7 games for Carolina but in those games he averaged 5.7 per carry (98-554) and scored 4 TDs.
8. Sammy Morris, Patriots: You just knew he’d sneak in here somehow. No other RB amasses such quiet yards. Despite injuries and a platoon role the last 3 years, Morris has carried 333 times for 1511 yards. He’s almost 32 but his average per carry has risen every year since 2005. However, now that OC Josh McDaniels left to coach the Broncos there’s a chance Morris could be pushed out of the rotation.
9. Fred Jackson, Bills: Wow, a 10-yard play every 7.26 times he touches the ball. Probably the 2nd biggest surprise on this list after Darren McFadden, Jackson is a helluva slasher. He’s really big in the passing game. Jackson ranked 7th among all RBs with 8.6 yards per catch. OC Turk Schonert loves to mix Fred in, but it’s not like Marshawn Lynch is losing his job. Lynch touched the ball 297 times last year and almost made this list too – with a 10-yard play every 8.49 touches.
10. Chris Johnson, Titans: The electric rookie finished 8th in rushing with 1,228 yards despite resting in the season finale. He’s already one of the 5 best pure runners in football. “LBJ” was a home run pick on the 2008 Draft Sharks Sleepers list. “Don’t be afraid to reach a round early for Chris Johnson” – we wrote in July. Johnson gashed Baltimore in the AFC title game for 100 total yards in the first half before leaving with an ankle injury. It was his first significant injury of the year.
11. Kevin Smith, Lions: When people ask me what “under-the-radar” picks I like going into 2009, the first guy on my mind is Kevin Smith. He quietly had 794 total yards from weeks 10-17, 5th most among all RBs. Not bad considering the Lions faced 8- and 9-man fronts all year. Detroit fans, Matt Millen actually left you with a couple gifts. One is obviously Calvin Johnson. The other one? Millen’s move to trade up 2 spots and take Kevin Smith at the top of the 3rd round. I love this kid. Note: Detroit played the 3rd toughest NFL schedule in terms of final stats in 2008.
12. Steve Slaton, Texans: No one on Earth expected Slaton to become the Texans’ starting RB, much less a 300-touch guy. The little guy topped 100 total yards from scrimmage 9 times! Slaton fit in perfectly with OL coach Alex Gibbs’ masterful zone-blocking plays. Despite concerns about the 202-lb Slaton wearing down, they kept giving him the ball. He averaged 25 touches over the last 6 games! However, believe it or not we hear Houston might draft another RB in the 2nd or 3rd round.
13. Michael Turner, Falcons: The Burner struck for 10+ yards every 8.13 times he touched the rock. Very impressive considering he had (gulp) 382 touches. His 1,699 rushing yards was the 28th highest single-season mark in NFL history. Curtis Martin or Tony Dorsett never had has many yards in their 23 combined seasons. Turner is a beast and there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again in 2009. Falcons C Todd McClure & LG Justin Blalock are two of the most underrated o-linemen in football.
14. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Speaking of all-time seasons, Peterson’s 1,760 yards is the 21st best season mark. He has hit 100 yards in 16 of 30 games, and 150 yards in 5 of those games. I could go on and on, but just know that Peterson will be the #1 fantasy pick in 98% of fantasy drafts this summer. Imagine if they finally got a quarterback.
15. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: He was pretty darn good in his first year back from ACL surgery. 1,170 total yards (20th among RBs), 10 rushing TDs, and a TD pass. Miami widely rotated Ricky Williams in and out so Brown wouldn’t experience too much swelling. In 2009 he could be ready to amp it up. Remember, back in 2007 Brown was leading all RBs in total yards when he injured his knee in week 7.
It will be interesting to see if Mewelde Moore "fades back into obscurity" this coming year or not ...
Draft Sharks
Who are the most productive RBs?
February 9, 2009
==========
by John Miller, Draftsharks.com
My favorite way to measure an RB’s production is to simply count his 10-yard plays. How many 10-yard plays, run or catch, did he make out of his total touches? This stat gives you an idea of who really moved the chains in 2008, or who might get more touches in 2009. Of course the “fresh legs” factor helps some of these backs – but production is production. Maurice Jones-Drew made a 10-yard play every 6.17 times he touched the football, 5th best in the NFL. Here are the 15 most productive RBs per this measure. Commentary on each RB below.
Who are the most productive RBs?
RB Touches 10 yd plays Avg
1 Derrick Ward 223 43 5.19
2 Jerious Norwood 132 25 5.28
3 Darren McFadden 142 25 5.68
4 Pierre Thomas 160 25 5.76
5 M. Jones-Drew 259 42 6.17
6 Mewelde Moore 180 27 6.67
7 DeAngelo Williams 295 44 6.70
8 Sammy Morris 173 25 6.92
9 Fred Jackson 167 23 7.26
10 Chris Johnson 294 40 7.35
11 Kevin Smith 277 36 7.69
12 Steve Slaton 318 41 7.76
13 Michael Turner 382 47 8.13
14 Adrian Peterson 384 47 8.17
15 Ronnie Brown 247 30 8.23
1. Derrick Ward, NYG: Ward popped a 10-yard play every 5.19 times he touched the ball. Amazing! Ward is a free agent just like teammate Brandon Jacobs. They can’t afford to keep both. Newsday’s Tom Rock says the chances of Ward being re-signed are “slim” because of all the money they’ll throw at Jacobs. Ward’s already 28 but his legs are 23 – he only has 411 career touches. Sure, Ward faced a lot of bruised and weary defenders after Jacobs inflicted pain on them... but his all-around skills are obvious. I predict either Denver or Seattle will land this guy.
2. Jerious Norwood, Falcons: Anyone who follows the league closely knows Norwood is probably the only RB who could take Chris Johnson in a race. His role is perfectly cemented as Michael Turner’s change-of-pace guy. Norwood leads all RBs over the last 3 years with a 5.8 average per carry. He almost broke a 55-yard TD reception in the wild-card game at Arizona but CB Rod Hood barely pulled his jersey enough so that another tackler got the angle on him. Norwood is going into a contract year so he should be a RB4 or RB5 on all fantasy rosters.
3. Darren McFadden, Raiders: This is the most surprising name on the list. McFadden had 10+ yards on 14 of his 113 runs, and 11 of his 29 catches. He broke off chunky pieces of yardage all year, and he did it with turf toe. Actually turf toes, plural. McFadden injured the right big toe on September 14 and the left one on October 19. The 4th overall pick played 3/4 of the season with a steel plate in one shoe. He hardly practiced either. Keep an eye on this guy, folks. Justin Fargas is coming off a torn MCL and could be cut, plus Oakland has tried to trade Michael Bush several times.
4. Pierre Thomas, Saints: Many FF sites are calling Pierre Thomas the best fantasy free-agent pickup of 2008. However, if you were a Draft Shark he might have already been on your fantasy roster to begin with. Pierre was our 2008 Mega-Sleeper Breakout Pick. We were talking about the scrappy Saint way before anyone even knew who he was. “Thomas could get 150+ touches in 2008,” we said in May. Pierre got 160 touches. In one 5-game stretch he generated 574 total yards and 8 TDs! It’s hard to assess the Saints backfield (Reggie Bush had microfracture knee surgery) this early, but now everybody knows who Thomas is.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: They can jump instantly from $16 million in cap room to $22 million by releasing the 33-year old Fred Taylor. He’s gone. Whaddya know, all of the sudden Jones-Drew could be a weekly 20-touch guy. MJD is barely 24 years old. He’s really never been injured either, save for a couple knee strains, and has only missed 1 game in his career. He’s scored an astounding 40 TDs via rush/catch/return in 3 years as a part-timer. If the Jags can get the O-line rebuilt (injuries everywhere in 200
MJD could be flying off the board in the 1st round of fantasy drafts. 6. Mewelde Moore, Steelers: This guy was a huge October pickup who helped fantasy teams stay competitive when RBs started dropping like flies. He compiled 449 total yards & 6 TDs in 4 starts in place of Willie Parker. It’s not the first time Moore has done this. Back in Minnesota he once posted 537 total yards in a 3-week span filling in for Onterrio Smith. Sadly, Willie Parker will be healthy in 2009 and Rashard Mendenhall’s shoulder will be fully healed. Moore could fade back into obscurity.
7. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: No other RB was as explosive in the 2nd half of the season. DeAngelo topped 100 yards 6 times after Halloween! He rushed for 993 yards and 15 TDs in the last 8 games alone. If you counted just D.W.’s last 8 games he would have still been the 13th best fantasy RB of 2008! Many don’t realize DeAngelo is playing at 220 lbs these days… that’s one thick halfback at 5’9. He’s not a fluke. At Memphis DeAngelo topped Ricky Williams to become the NCAA’s all-time all-purpose yardage leader with 7,573. And in 2007 D.W. only had 10+ carries in 7 games for Carolina but in those games he averaged 5.7 per carry (98-554) and scored 4 TDs.
8. Sammy Morris, Patriots: You just knew he’d sneak in here somehow. No other RB amasses such quiet yards. Despite injuries and a platoon role the last 3 years, Morris has carried 333 times for 1511 yards. He’s almost 32 but his average per carry has risen every year since 2005. However, now that OC Josh McDaniels left to coach the Broncos there’s a chance Morris could be pushed out of the rotation.
9. Fred Jackson, Bills: Wow, a 10-yard play every 7.26 times he touches the ball. Probably the 2nd biggest surprise on this list after Darren McFadden, Jackson is a helluva slasher. He’s really big in the passing game. Jackson ranked 7th among all RBs with 8.6 yards per catch. OC Turk Schonert loves to mix Fred in, but it’s not like Marshawn Lynch is losing his job. Lynch touched the ball 297 times last year and almost made this list too – with a 10-yard play every 8.49 touches.
10. Chris Johnson, Titans: The electric rookie finished 8th in rushing with 1,228 yards despite resting in the season finale. He’s already one of the 5 best pure runners in football. “LBJ” was a home run pick on the 2008 Draft Sharks Sleepers list. “Don’t be afraid to reach a round early for Chris Johnson” – we wrote in July. Johnson gashed Baltimore in the AFC title game for 100 total yards in the first half before leaving with an ankle injury. It was his first significant injury of the year.
11. Kevin Smith, Lions: When people ask me what “under-the-radar” picks I like going into 2009, the first guy on my mind is Kevin Smith. He quietly had 794 total yards from weeks 10-17, 5th most among all RBs. Not bad considering the Lions faced 8- and 9-man fronts all year. Detroit fans, Matt Millen actually left you with a couple gifts. One is obviously Calvin Johnson. The other one? Millen’s move to trade up 2 spots and take Kevin Smith at the top of the 3rd round. I love this kid. Note: Detroit played the 3rd toughest NFL schedule in terms of final stats in 2008.
12. Steve Slaton, Texans: No one on Earth expected Slaton to become the Texans’ starting RB, much less a 300-touch guy. The little guy topped 100 total yards from scrimmage 9 times! Slaton fit in perfectly with OL coach Alex Gibbs’ masterful zone-blocking plays. Despite concerns about the 202-lb Slaton wearing down, they kept giving him the ball. He averaged 25 touches over the last 6 games! However, believe it or not we hear Houston might draft another RB in the 2nd or 3rd round.
13. Michael Turner, Falcons: The Burner struck for 10+ yards every 8.13 times he touched the rock. Very impressive considering he had (gulp) 382 touches. His 1,699 rushing yards was the 28th highest single-season mark in NFL history. Curtis Martin or Tony Dorsett never had has many yards in their 23 combined seasons. Turner is a beast and there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again in 2009. Falcons C Todd McClure & LG Justin Blalock are two of the most underrated o-linemen in football.
14. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Speaking of all-time seasons, Peterson’s 1,760 yards is the 21st best season mark. He has hit 100 yards in 16 of 30 games, and 150 yards in 5 of those games. I could go on and on, but just know that Peterson will be the #1 fantasy pick in 98% of fantasy drafts this summer. Imagine if they finally got a quarterback.
15. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: He was pretty darn good in his first year back from ACL surgery. 1,170 total yards (20th among RBs), 10 rushing TDs, and a TD pass. Miami widely rotated Ricky Williams in and out so Brown wouldn’t experience too much swelling. In 2009 he could be ready to amp it up. Remember, back in 2007 Brown was leading all RBs in total yards when he injured his knee in week 7.
It will be interesting to see if Mewelde Moore "fades back into obscurity" this coming year or not ...
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