AFCN Title; Vegas Not A Believer

[Mr.wizard]

Terrible coaching, obviously

That is why always push back on the Tomlin criticism of not having won a playoff game in the past seven years. Tomlins teams generally over perform, and that is direct result of coaching. A much more fair criticism would be on talent evaluation.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I have never been more confident that Vegas is wrong on this one. 11-6. Whatever that gets us in the division.

Now that the draft is over and most of free agency I would say an 8-9 or 9-8 finish is most likely, but I will hold my official prediction until the 3rd pre-season game.

11-6 you say?! I highly doubt we win 11 games or more. But who am I to say, except that I will bet against that. A signature bet is offered to you. Terms the winner chooses the loser signature for until the next season starts. Read carefully terms. I predict a no thanks from you which tells me you really don't not believe in what you are saying.

[WindyCitySteel]

That is why always push back on the Tomlin criticism of not having won a playoff game in the past seven years. Tomlins teams generally over perform, and that is direct result of coaching. A much more fair criticism would be on talent evaluation.

Based off of preseason predictions assuming 100% health across the league, which is not realistic. Expectations change during the course of a season. In which games last year did the Steelers overperform based on how both teams were constructed at the time?

They underperformed vs. SF, Hou, NE, AZ, Indy, and 2nd Browns game with DTR at QB. First two were just non-competitive, the other four you should have expected wins.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Based off of preseason predictions assuming 100% health across the league, which is not realistic. Expectations change during the course of a season. In which games last year did the Steelers overperform based on how both teams were constructed at the time?

They underperformed vs. SF, Hou, NE, AZ, Indy, and 2nd Browns game with DTR at QB. First two were just non-competitive, the other four you should have expected wins.

+1 Yep.

[Mr.wizard]

Based off of preseason predictions assuming 100% health across the league, which is not realistic. Expectations change during the course of a season. In which games last year did the Steelers overperform based on how both teams were constructed at the time?

They underperformed vs. SF, Hou, NE, AZ, Indy, and 2nd Browns game with DTR at QB. First two were just non-competitive, the other four you should have expected wins.

Why are you moving the goal posts I clearly said the Steelers over perform based on total win over unders. Now you want bring up individual games, why not individual plays? The point is that based on the Steelers talent that they have on their roster they finish with a higher win total than predicted better than any other team the past 10 years.

[Northern_Blitz]

This is where Tomlin's system is good to get to a base 8 wins. Unfortunately, it ends shortly after that. You can't hide the offense and win a Super Bowl anymore, heck we can's stay within one score of the good teams in the playoffs doing that.

Hopefully we get competent showings from the OC and QB.

With the offenses we've had in the last few years.

Tomlin has a big hand in the OC selection. Canada hire falls on him. Glad they fired him early. Wish they fired him earlier.

I also think it's good that we (1) tried to replace the QB through the draft and (2) cut bait when it was clear he wasn't going to be an above average starter.

I think getting Wilson and Fields for the prices we did is also a good bet. Hopefully it pays out.

[Northern_Blitz]

That is why always push back on the Tomlin criticism of not having won a playoff game in the past seven years. Tomlins teams generally over perform, and that is direct result of coaching. A much more fair criticism would be on talent evaluation.

Yep, comparison to reasonable expectations is a reasonable metric.

And the comparison to preseason Vegas lines is probably fairly impartial.

[Northern_Blitz]

Now that the draft is over and most of free agency I would say an 8-9 or 9-8 finish is most likely, but I will hold my official prediction until the 3rd pre-season game.

11-6 you say?! I highly doubt we win 11 games or more. But who am I to say, except that I will bet against that. A signature bet is offered to you. Terms the winner chooses the loser signature for until the next season starts. Read carefully terms. I predict a no thanks from you which tells me you really don't not believe in what you are saying.

1) So you say if we finish with more than 9 wins, we'll exceed your expectations? I think you said a similar thing last season. Yet you complain about having more wins and making the playoffs. Because a team you thought would miss the playoffs didn't win a playoff game. Do you see how some people thing that's silly?

2) It's comforting that you're picking they won't do well this season. We've seen the accuracy of your predictions since you've been on the board . Sometimes you even incorrectly predict things that happen in the past (like Pierre starting). Few people can achieve this type of predictive record!

[WindyCitySteel]

Why are you moving the goal posts I clearly said the Steelers over perform based on total win over unders. Now you want bring up individual games, why not individual plays? The point is that based on the Steelers talent that they have on their roster they finish with a higher win total than predicted better than any other team the past 10 years.

Not moving the goalposts, merely trying to fine tune the logic. Predictions in August don't account for injuries. They probably predicted two losses to the Bengals last August assuming Burrow would be healthy.

[Captain Lemming]

Now that the draft is over and most of free agency I would say an 8-9 or 9-8 finish is most likely, but I will hold my official prediction until the 3rd pre-season game.

11-6 you say?! I highly doubt we win 11 games or more. But who am I to say, except that I will bet against that. A signature bet is offered to you. Terms the winner chooses the loser signature for until the next season starts. Read carefully terms. I predict a no thanks from you which tells me you really don't not believe in what you are saying.

You just suggested 8 or 9 wins?
I?ll take the over right now, lets do your sig style bet.

[Mr.wizard]

Not moving the goalposts, merely trying to fine tune the logic. Predictions in August don't account for injuries. They probably predicted two losses to the Bengals last August assuming Burrow would be healthy.

Did they also account for the Steelers being on their 3rd string QB or losing all of their ILB's or Minkah for a number of games. Everyone gets injuries and that furthers my point, the Steelers under Tomlin still find a way to win despite the injuries, where as the Bengals if they lose Burrow they finish last, despite starting with a more talented roster.

[NorthCoast]

Not moving the goalposts, merely trying to fine tune the logic. Predictions in August don't account for injuries. They probably predicted two losses to the Bengals last August assuming Burrow would be healthy.

This is true. Cannot predict the unpredictable. It's what makes the NFL a good product.

[NorthCoast]

Keep in mind "Vegas" = the betting public. Although the initial line is set by Vegas pros, it moves based on the public. So for the Steelers to consistently beat the under means the bettors consistently underrate them (think they are worse than they really are). My guess is that Steeler fans probably bet the over most years.
So a question that comes to mind; Does Vegas adjust the lines based on the known betting habits of certain fan bases?

I'm curious if there's a team the opposite of the Steelers, consistently on the under side, and who is their HC?

[WindyCitySteel]

Did they also account for the Steelers being on their 3rd string QB or losing all of their ILB's or Minkah for a number of games. Everyone gets injuries and that furthers my point, the Steelers under Tomlin still find a way to win despite the injuries, where as the Bengals if they lose Burrow they finish last, despite starting with a more talented roster.

Well, I mean, the Steelers had three backup QBs on the roster last year, that wasn't going to affect much negatively, and as we saw, the best QB was the 3rd stringer.

Would you rather have had Burrow face Pickett with two healthy rosters, or Browning vs. Rudolph with backup ILBs? The latter is a huge matchup advantage for the Steelers.

Questionable that the Bengals had a better roster than the Steelers, their OL and LB are average, and they lost their two starting safeties to FA last offseason.

[NorthCoast]

.....

Questionable that the Bengals had a better roster than the Steelers, their OL and LB are average, and they lost their two starting safeties to FA last offseason.

It's what happens when a team has to pay a franchise QB. They got Burrow & Chase, kept Higgins on a 1 year deal. Tough choices to make.