KP vs MR Under Pressure

[NorthCoast]

Wins Losses (all stats per PFR):

• when blitzed 10 or more times in a game:
  • KP 3 - 3
  • MR 4 - 3 -1
  
  
• when pressured 20% or more in a game:
  • KP 7 - 7
  • MR 5 - 4

Also looked at pressure rate vs bad throw %. Rudolph's bad throw rate is nearly double that of Pickett's when pressured:

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1]Pickett - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH]Rudolph - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[NorthCoast]

Wins Losses (all stats per PFR):

• when blitzed 10 or more times in a game:
  • KP 3 - 3
  • MR 4 - 3 -1
  
  
• when pressured 20% or more in a game:
  • KP 7 - 7
  • MR 5 - 4

Also looked at pressure rate vs bad throw %. Rudolph's bad throw rate is nearly double that of Pickett's when pressured:

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1]Pickett - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH]Rudolph - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

Also, looking at the plot for Pickett there's little correlation between pressure % and bad throw %. Meaning his bad throws come regardless of pressure or not.

[feltdizz]

lmao.. yeah, I’m going to trust your breakdown of this graph. I have no idea wtf I’m looking at to be honest.

[Northern_Blitz]

I'm not sure a linear fit of this data is reasonable.

It's all over the place for both guys and there's no "physical reason" why it should be linear.

Win loss record that you have here is that basically both are ~ a coin flip to win in either case.

Edited to add: I think maybe I'd try to bin the points into groups (e.g. 0-5%, 5-10% etc). Then take the averages in each bin (and the standard deviations). Then maybe try to do a linear regression of the data. But I think the punch line here is that you don't have enough data points for the spread of data you have.

If you calculate the uncertainty in the slopes that you're calculating, it will be large enough that you probably can't differentiate between the two samples.

[NorthCoast]

I'm not sure a linear fit of this data is reasonable.

It's all over the place for both guys and there's no "physical reason" why it should be linear.

Win loss record that you have here is that basically both are ~ a coin flip to win in either case.

Edited to add: I think maybe I'd try to bin the points into groups (e.g. 0-5%, 5-10% etc). Then take the averages in each bin (and the standard deviations). Then maybe try to do a linear regression of the data. But I think the punch line here is that you don't have enough data points for the spread of data you have.

If you calculate the uncertainty in the slopes that you're calculating, it will be large enough that you probably can't differentiate between the two samples.

I get that. Neither QB has much data to massage it further.
But I agree on win/losses. It's a toss up and supports the idea that neither QB is especially better than the other.

[Eich]

It's a toss up and supports the idea that neither QB is especially better than the other.

This is where I am with these two. But Mason had 6 years with the team to get to where he is. Kenny had 2 with the worst coordinator in football to get where he is.

And for everyone that wants to use the eye test, you have to look at Kenny's time without Canada to compare with Mason's games without Canada.

[Northern_Blitz]

I get that. Neither QB has much data to massage it further.
But I agree on win/losses. It's a toss up and supports the idea that neither QB is especially better than the other.

I agree that it's probably true that there isn't much difference between the two. My argument has been that this is a bad sign for Kenny. Because I don't think Mason is a long term starter.

[Northern_Blitz]

This is where I am with these two. But Mason had 6 years with the team to get to where he is. Kenny had 2 with the worst coordinator in football to get where he is.

And for everyone that wants to use the eye test, you have to look at Kenny's time without Canada to compare with Mason's games without Canada.

Mason has has more time on the roster. But Kenny has more starts.

[Oviedo]

Statistical gobbly goop

We need to realize that Mason and Kenny are both "bridge" QBs. Neither is the long term answer, but likely both can be an effective game manager if we maintain a strong running game and defense

[Chucktownsteeler]

I'd like to see a chart on the average points per game per each QB and a separate one on how many average punts per game per each QB.

That would be eye opening.

[feltdizz]

I'd like to see a chart on the average points per game per each QB and a separate one on how many average punts per game per each QB.

That would be eye opening.

Not sure punts will tell you the real story.

We scored 34 points vs Cincy and punted more than the first time when we won 16-10.

Seattle is the only outlier where we punted 1 time.

Fun fact. We punted 6 times in both Ravens games and had identical scores of 17-10. Only difference is turnovers. We had 2 fumbles in the last game vs 1 in the first game which may have led to points… or punts.

[Northern_Blitz]

I'd like to see a chart on the average points per game per each QB and a separate one on how many average punts per game per each QB.

That would be eye opening.

One of the podcasts I listen to is called "Scouts Eye". In season, he would often talk about a stat called something like "converted 1st downs".

Basically, it measures how many times you turn a first down into a new first down (or a TD).

Unsurprisingly, this was another offensive metric where we were at or near the bottom of the league for the majority of the season.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Statistical gobbly goop

We need to realize that Mason and Kenny are both "bridge" QBs. Neither is the long term answer, but likely both can be an effective game manager if we maintain a strong running game and defense

Exactly. We can argue all we want about Pickett vs. Rudolph vs. Tannehill but all we are talking about is who will wear the QB1 title until we find a long term starter who we hope will take the team deep into a playoff run and hopefully to a title.

Guys like Wilson and Cousins are a different conversation. These are guys who you hope to win with now, but will not be a part of the future so you can't sell too much of your future to get them. The last group is a guy like Fields, a first rounder at 20, or a trade up in the first. These are guys who you are banking on for your future, so no room for error. Whether it is a financial commitment (like Fields who will be due a second contract soon) or draft capital, being wrong can set you back.

[WindyCitySteel]

Exactly. We can argue all we want about Pickett vs. Rudolph vs. Tannehill but all we are talking about is who will wear the QB1 title until we find a long term starter who we hope will take the team deep into a playoff run and hopefully to a title.

Guys like Wilson and Cousins are a different conversation. These are guys who you hope to win with now, but will not be a part of the future so you can't sell too much of your future to get them. The last group is a guy like Fields, a first rounder at 20, or a trade up in the first. These are guys who you are banking on for your future, so no room for error. Whether it is a financial commitment (like Fields who will be due a second contract soon) or draft capital, being wrong can set you back.

A bridge is a one-year stopgap, you don't draft a bridge QB in the first round and give him every chance in the world year after year.

I can guarantee you the Steelers don't think Kenny's a bridge, and that's potentially the problem. Hopefully he proves us all wrong and explodes next season.

[feltdizz]

A bridge is a one-year stopgap, you don't draft a bridge QB in the first round and give him every chance in the world year after year.

I can guarantee you the Steelers don't think Kenny's a bridge, and that's potentially the problem. Hopefully he proves us all wrong and explodes next season.

Hell no he isn’t being viewed as a bridge QB. They expect him to pan out. I still have hope that he will now that Canada is gone.