Mason Ruloplh stats in his last 4 QB starts, extapoled for a 16 game season.

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  • Joel Buchsbaum
    Legend
    • Jan 2021
    • 7744

    Mason Ruloplh stats in his last 4 QB starts, extapoled for a 16 game season.

    Go to post #2
    Last edited by Joel Buchsbaum; 02-01-2024, 07:20 AM.
    Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

    Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

    *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***
  • Joel Buchsbaum
    Legend
    • Jan 2021
    • 7744

    #2
    Mason

    Mason Rudolph stats in his last 4 QB starts, extrapolated for a 16 game season.


    NFL QB passer rating = 107.75
    Passing yards = 237 yards per game or 3,792 yards for a 16 game season.
    TD 's thrown 24
    Int's thrown 4
    Sacks taken 24 for a 16 games season.

    And this is having 3 of 4 games on the road, two of which were bad passing days due to the weather vs. good competition! Trend the numbers up a bit for a 17 game season!

    Key would be 3rd and 4th down conversion rates which is good for Rudolph. I don't have that data to extrapolate.

    This is a big enough sample size and it shows Mason is a QB1, better than half of the NFL starting QB's..

    How good I won't say. He could be a top 10 NFL Qb. He is in his prime, and 100% healthy. We better re-sign him. 2 years for 40 million dollars with a good third year option ought to do it. Then he should stay.

    Feel better now?
    Last edited by Joel Buchsbaum; 02-08-2024, 05:24 PM.
    Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

    Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

    *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***

    Comment

    • Northern_Blitz
      Legend
      • Dec 2008
      • 24358

      #3
      Extrapolation of small samples tends to be dangerous.

      But it's encouraging.

      Especially since this sample includes that game against the Rats where the weather was just terrible and not really a good day for passing the ball.

      Hopefully he's at least a capable backup.

      Even if Kenny is the starter, his injury history suggests we'll need a backup that can come in and play.

      Comment

      • hawaiiansteel
        Legend
        • May 2008
        • 35638

        #4
        Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
        This is a big enough sample size and it shows Mason is a QB1, better than half of the NFL.

        He could be a top 10 NFL Qb.

        We better re-sign him. 2 years for 40 million dollars with a good third year option ought to do it.
        Rudolph is nowhere near a top 10 NFL QB.

        and no team is going to pay him anywhere near $20 million/year.

        Comment

        • whatever
          Legend
          • Sep 2019
          • 5795

          #5
          To be fair:
          Seattle was 21st, Cincy was 28th in passing defense, Baltimore rested players and against buffalo , he threw it 39 times for those stats.
          How is it possible to have the best owner, best front office, best gm, best HC, good/great drafts every year and good FA acquisitions every year, but only have 3 playoff wins in 14 years?

          Comment

          • Buzz
            Legend
            • Dec 2017
            • 8366

            #6
            Originally posted by whatever
            To be fair:
            Seattle was 21st, Cincy was 28th in passing defense, Baltimore rested players and against buffalo , he threw it 39 times for those stats.
            Yeah, I don't think you can assume he would have the same kind of numbers over a season

            still

            when he came in, the pickup was noticeable
            and it seemed to me the players responded better to his leadership (I know that last thing is somewhat subjective, but it's an important quality)

            Comment

            • Joel Buchsbaum
              Legend
              • Jan 2021
              • 7744

              #7
              Originally posted by Buzz
              Yeah, I don't think you can assume he would have the same kind of numbers over a season

              still

              when he came in, the pickup was noticeable
              and it seemed to me the players responded better to his leadership (I know that last thing is somewhat subjective, but it's an important quality)
              He did not play any cream puffs on the schedule. His stats were damped by the weather. Otherwise even his naysayers would say he would have done even better. I too would have liked to have seen more, but Tomlin had him as QB3 for all but the last 4 games.

              Put it to you this way he is in the top 16 QB's for sure. And I would say based on his last 4 games he is a top 14 QB. Maybe even top 8-10. We can win a playoff game with him. And if built right with the cap and draft maybe even that game played in February. IMO, we are 3 players away, all three of which can be obtained in the draft in picks 1 + 2 and from another team in free agency with one 22 million dollar plus player If THEY PAN out. I won't share this info until the senior bowl ends.
              Last edited by Joel Buchsbaum; 01-31-2024, 08:23 PM.
              Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

              Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

              *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***

              Comment

              • WindyCitySteel
                Legend
                • Nov 2011
                • 15676

                #8
                Let's hope his new team appreciates that, he has no place in Arthur Smith's system.

                Comment

                • Joel Buchsbaum
                  Legend
                  • Jan 2021
                  • 7744

                  #9
                  Originally posted by hawaiiansteel
                  Rudolph is nowhere near a top 10 NFL QB.

                  and no team is going to pay him anywhere near $20 million/year.
                  Hey now. Smith, Garoppolo and Tannehill all made well over 25M a year, but you think Mason is not going get paid anywhere near 20 Million a year? You really do not know this QB market. A player like Jones makes 40M a year.


                  Last edited by papillon; 01-31-2024, 10:02 PM.
                  Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

                  Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

                  *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***

                  Comment

                  • feltdizz
                    Legend
                    • May 2008
                    • 27493

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                    He did not play any cream puffs on the schedule. His stats were damped by the weather. Otherwise even his naysayers would say he would have done even better. I too would have liked to have seen more, but Tomlin had him as QB3 for all but the last 4 games.

                    Put it to you this way he is in the top 16 QB's for sure. And I would say based on his last 4 games he is a top 14 QB. Maybe even top 8-10. We can win a playoff game with him. And if built right with the cap and draft maybe even that game played in February. IMO, we are 3 players away, all three of which can be obtained in the draft in picks 1 + 2 and from another team in free agency with one 22 million dollar plus player If THEY PAN out. I won't share this info until the senior bowl ends.
                    No one looks at Cincinnati or Seattle and thinks juggernaut. Those weren’t good teams. Beating a Ravens team that sat starters is also not that impressive. Yes, it was raining hard but isn’t enough to push the needle to $20 Mill.

                    Doesn’t matter what Tannehil and Jimmy G got paid. They had different circumstances that led to their paydays.
                    Steelers 27
                    Rats 16

                    Comment

                    • feltdizz
                      Legend
                      • May 2008
                      • 27493

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                      Hey now. Smith, Garoppolo and Tannehill all made well over 25M a year, but you think Mason is not going get paid anywhere near 20 Million a year? You really do not know this QB market. A player like Jones makes 40M a year.


                      https://overthecap.com/position/quarterbackhttps://overthecap.com/position/quarterback
                      Mason could get paid if he goes somewhere else, gets a chance to play and balls out. Then he could get big money the next year if a team wants to lock him up long term.
                      Steelers 27
                      Rats 16

                      Comment

                      • Mr.wizard
                        Legend
                        • May 2014
                        • 6686

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                        Hey now. Smith, Garoppolo and Tannehill all made well over 25M a year, but you think Mason is not going get paid anywhere near 20 Million a year? You really do not know this QB market. A player like Jones makes 40M a year.


                        https://overthecap.com/position/quarterbackhttps://overthecap.com/position/quarterback
                        Rudolph has 14 starts in 5 years, he isn't going to be a starter on any team, let alone be a top 10 QB getting 20+ million on a multi year deal.

                        Comment

                        • Joel Buchsbaum
                          Legend
                          • Jan 2021
                          • 7744

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Mr.wizard
                          Rudolph has 14 starts in 5 years, he isn't going to be a starter on any team, let alone be a top 10 QB getting 20+ million on a multi year deal.
                          Says you. There are many teams that Rudolph can start on. Lower end value of a 5 year + veteran that is a QB1 I showed you. I did not say he is a top 10 QB, I said he can be. Based on his play in the last 4 games, he is a top 14 QB.

                          Good point that Rudolph only has 14 starts. He can get a bit better with more starts.
                          Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

                          Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

                          *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***

                          Comment

                          • Northern_Blitz
                            Legend
                            • Dec 2008
                            • 24358

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                            Says you. There are many teams that Rudolph can start on. Lower end value of a 5 year + veteran that is a QB1 I showed you. I did not say he is a top 10 QB, I said he can be. Based on his play in the last 4 games, he is a top 14 QB.

                            Good point that Rudolph only has 14 starts. He can get a bit better with more starts.
                            I think it might be possible for him...if he plays very well and shows that he's a clear cut starter on whatever "prove it" contract he signs this off season. But the contract he signs this summer won't be anywhere near $20M IMO.

                            It's true that high end QB salaries are super high. But there's no real middle class here (i.e. the drop in QB salaries is not linear).

                            There are currently 19 QBs in the league with an AAV > $20M. And there are only three QBs who are in the $20-30M range (Tannehill, Smith, Garoppolo).

                            After Jimmy G ($24.5), the drop off is pretty big. Love @ $13.5 (45% drop in salary from 19th QB to 20th). then Young at $9.5 (30% drop in salary from 20th to 21).

                            So, 19 guys over $20M. 1 guy between 10M and 20M. Everyone else below $9.5M (and not a lot of guys between $5M and $9.5M either).

                            I think it's possible that Mason will get into the $5M - $10M range. Especially if the contract is reported at a total value including "not likely to be earned" incentives. But he could also be in the sub-$5M range too. And even that is a 5x increase in salary for him.

                            I think Mason should get a shot at competing for the starting job on our team.

                            But I don't think anyone is going to pay him to be in the top 20 QB in the league. If they do, we have to let him walk. And if my team offered to pay Mason $20M / season, I'd want the GM fired.

                            Source: https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback
                            Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 02-01-2024, 11:28 AM.

                            Comment

                            • Mr.wizard
                              Legend
                              • May 2014
                              • 6686

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                              Says you. There are many teams that Rudolph can start on. Lower end value of a 5 year + veteran that is a QB1 I showed you. I did not say he is a top 10 QB, I said he can be. Based on his play in the last 4 games, he is a top 14 QB.

                              Good point that Rudolph only has 14 starts. He can get a bit better with more starts.
                              That isn't reality, Rudolph only has 14 starts in 5 years for a reason. The Steelers spent a 1st round pick on a QB with Rudolph already on the roster for a reason. Rudolph had to re-sign with the Steelers for a 1 year deal knowing he would be 3rd string for a reason. You can keep pointing to the 4 games even though they don't mean what you think they mean, but the reality is that Rudolph is not being looked at as a starter.

                              Comment

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