One reason why Mike Tomlin hasn't been so successful in the playoffs

[hawaiiansteel]

Daniel Valente
@StatsGuyDaniel

Roethlisberger played 17 playoff games under Tomlin. His stats:

- 63.8% completion rate
- 26 TDs
- 20 INTs
- 3 lost fumbles
- 23 turnovers
- 86.7 passer rating
- 6 multi-INT games

Feel like this context gets missed when people dump on Tomlin's record.

Jan 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/StatsGuyDaniel/status/1745555239753687446?s=20

[SteelCrazy]

Daniel Valente
@StatsGuyDaniel

Roethlisberger played 17 playoff games under Tomlin. His stats:

- 63.8% completion rate
- 26 TDs
- 20 INTs
- 3 lost fumbles
- 23 turnovers
- 86.7 passer rating
- 6 multi-INT games

Feel like this context gets missed when people dump on Tomlin's record.

Jan 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/StatsGuyDaniel/s...753687446?s=20

It’s definitely not 100% Tomlins fault. Having players ready, not just pumped up is my biggest gripe with Mike T. My #2 gripe is his unwillingness to try to win a game as opposed to not losing a game.

I think that gripe also reflects his record as to why he finishes every year around .500. It’s like flipping a coin. Playing the averages and you’ll end up 50/50.

However, I hope he wins us a SB this year and makes me look more foolish then usual.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Daniel Valente
@StatsGuyDaniel

Roethlisberger played 17 playoff games under Tomlin. His stats:

- 63.8% completion rate
- 26 TDs
- 20 INTs
- 3 lost fumbles
- 23 turnovers
- 86.7 passer rating
- 6 multi-INT games

Feel like this context gets missed when people dump on Tomlin's record.

Jan 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/StatsGuyDaniel/s...753687446?s=20

Ben Roethlisberger had a passer rating of 86.7 with 5,972 yards, 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 23 games in the playoffs in his career.

There is a portion of the fans who thinks Ben, a hall of fame franchise QB to be, is part of the reason for Tomlin's losing record in the playoffs. In truth very few teams would take their QB who we lost to in the playoffs over Ben. He generally played well.

Since the 2010 Steelers lost the Super Bowl to the Green Bay Packers, the Steelers have been a successful NFL team in the regular season. It?s hasn?t been a good 13 years for playoff success with the Steelers winning only 3 playoff games while losing 7. I don?t care about playoff win percentage as a measure of a coach. Any stat that values missing the playoffs more than losing a divisional round playoff game is stupid. If you are the number one seed but get upset in the divisional round, playoff winning percentage views that as a worse season than going 0-17. So the losses don?t matter? throw them out. Playoff losses mean you made the playoffs but didn?t win the Super Bowl, any year you meet those two criteria you get exactly one playoff loss. Remember that when we get to the records, playoff losses tell you how many times a team made the playoffs but didn?t win it all. Playoff wins, on the other hand, are a big deal.

Mike Tomlin?s 3 playoff wins since 2011 isn?t good. Seventeen NFL franchises have won four or more playoff games in that time span, which is more than half the league. Furthermore, Mike Tomlin had Ben Roethlisberger for all but two seasons (2019 and 2022) in that time. Obviously doing worse than average with a Hall of Fame quarterback should qualify as bad.

The problem here is the context that is being ignored, and NFL history has a lot of context to add. Mike Tomlin didn?t just get hired to coach any team and then pull off winning a Super Bowl, he was hired to coach a team that was already good. In fact, they were more than good, they were great.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/ben-roethlisberger-career-playoff-stats

[Oviedo]

Daniel Valente
@StatsGuyDaniel

Roethlisberger played 17 playoff games under Tomlin. His stats:

- 63.8% completion rate
- 26 TDs
- 20 INTs
- 3 lost fumbles
- 23 turnovers
- 86.7 passer rating
- 6 multi-INT games

Feel like this context gets missed when people dump on Tomlin's record.

Jan 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/StatsGuyDaniel/s...753687446?s=20

Some fans don't want to remember that for the last 4-5 seasons of his career, Ben was not an elite QB. It wasn't like early in his career when he could will the team to victory with late wins.

[WindyCitySteel]

You play how you practice. When you overlook teams in the playoffs, which the Steelers have done at least twice with the Jags and Browns, nothing works because you're not prepared and then panic after getting punched in the mouth by a team that did prepare.

[WindyCitySteel]

Some fans don't want to remember that for the last 4-5 seasons of his career, Ben was not an elite QB. It wasn't like early in his career when he could will the team to victory with late wins.

Complete nonsense. Last year sure, but not last 4-5.

BTW, love this new narrative that Tomlin's been saddled with a HOF QB and still managed to finish above .500 every year. You guys keep outdoing yourselves.

[Northern_Blitz]

I wonder how many DTDs we gave up in that span. Seems like we give up or score a DTD way more playoff games than normal.

Didn't give one up against KC
One against CLE (on Pouncey)
One against the Jags.
Didn't give one up against the Pats in the AFCC.
Not against the Manning Broncos
Not against the Rats
Yes against the Packers in the SB
Yes against the Jags in the 2007 season (Jan 2008 )

So in Tomlin's 8 playoff losses, we gave up a DTD in 4 games.

I think you lose more than 90% of the time the opposing D scores. And I bet the 10% of wins come against bad teams (who you don't see in the playoffs).

[WindyCitySteel]

I wonder how many DTDs we gave up in that span. Seems like we give up or score a DTD way more playoff games than normal.

Didn't give one up against KC
One against CLE (on Pouncey)
One against the Jags.
Didn't give one up against the Pats in the AFCC.
Not against the Manning Broncos
Not against the Rats
Yes against the Packers in the SB
Yes against the Jags in the 2007 season (Jan 2008 )

So in Tomlin's 8 playoff losses, we gave up a DTD in 4 games.

I think you lose more than 90% of the time the opposing D scores. And I bet the 10% of wins come against bad teams (who you don't see in the playoffs).

How many DTDs, sacks, turnovers did his defense force in the same span? Is there a rule that says the Steelers defense can't make plays in the playoffs?

[Northern_Blitz]

You play how you practice. When you overlook teams in the playoffs, which the Steelers have done at least twice with the Jags and Browns, nothing works because you're not prepared and then panic after getting punched in the mouth by a team that did prepare.

How could you possibly think that the Steelers overlooked the Browns? We were garbage to finish the season and everyone knew this. We weren't overlooking anyone. But Pouncey forgot hot to snap. Then Ben had the worst game of his career trying to make up for it.

And you really think we overlooked a Jags team that humiliated us on our field earlier that season? The truth is that defense just owned Ben and the offense. In the two games they played, they got a turnover or totally shut us down any time the score was within 10 points.

More fanfic here.

[Northern_Blitz]

How many DTDs, sacks, turnovers did his defense force in the same span? Is there a rule that says the Steelers defense can't make plays in the playoffs?

Off the top of my heat at least two (Harrison and Watt). But I bet it's more. I think Lemming knows the answer. I think he's talked several times about how Tomlin's defenses score DTDs in the playoffs.

Ben was a great QB. But he was high variance. And when he took up enough cap space that we had to become a pass centric offense, it was hard to go 4 games against very good teams without having a bad Ben game.

This is the same reason I think the Bills are the best of bad choices for us this weekend. Allen is a very good QB. But he ****s the bed more often than most QBs too.

[T.Ferguson]

I don't know how anyone can watch those playoff games and come away with the conclusion that Ben was the reason the Steelers lost those games. Poor Tomlin lol, I'm not sure I've ever seen a HC get so many excuses and deflections for poor coaching and preparation.

[Northern_Blitz]

Complete nonsense. Last year sure, but not last 4-5.

BTW, love this new narrative that Tomlin's been saddled with a HOF QB and still managed to finish above .500 every year. You guys keep outdoing yourselves.

Ben is more responsible for the successes and failures of the team when he was with Cowher and when he was with Tomlin. This is what I've always said re: Ben and Tomlin.

[WindyCitySteel]

How could you possibly think that the Steelers overlooked the Browns? We were garbage to finish the season and everyone knew this. We weren't overlooking anyone. But Pouncey forgot hot to snap. Then Ben had the worst game of his career trying to make up for it.

And you really think we overlooked a Jags team that humiliated us on our field earlier that season? The truth is that defense just owned Ben and the offense. In the two games they played, they got a turnover or totally shut us down any time the score was within 10 points.

More fanfic here.

Tomlin was almost giddy after the finale when asked about playing the Browns again the following week after almost beating them with his backups.

And don't forget Juju: "Browns is Browns"

When the entire team comes out unprepared to play, I don't know how you can come to any other conclusion. We were reminded of it again vs. AZ and NE -- total team failure.

[WindyCitySteel]

Cook and Joe did a long segment on Belichick yesterday and citied multiple games over multiple Super Bowl seasons where Belichick's D carried some meh to downright poor performances by Brady.

Not every playoff run is about a QB throwing for 300 and 3 TD every game, in fact almost none are.

[Northern_Blitz]

Tomlin was almost giddy after the finale when asked about playing the Browns again the following week after almost beating them with his backups.

And don't forget Juju: "Browns is Browns"

When the entire team comes out unprepared to play, I don't know how you can come to any other conclusion. We were reminded of it again vs. AZ and NE -- total team failure.

You're right.

Everything bad that has every happened is on Tomlin.

Anything good that happens is in spite of him.

And we should also blame him for every possible negative outcome that could happen in the future.

I think that sums up your position, right?