Najee Speaks

[NorthCoast]

he’s 100% correct.

you dont value the position? Stop giving me 250 touches a year.

Najee won't have to worry about 250 touches if Tomlin/Canada are smart. Warren (an undrafted RB) should get half the carries or more.

[feltdizz]

Do you read this forum? I assure you most would not pay DJ 18 mil either.

but WE DID pay him $18 mill

[feltdizz]

Najee won't have to worry about 250 touches if Tomlin/Canada are smart. Warren (an undrafted RB) should get half the carries or more.

that is not happening anytime soon.

You guys have to be realistic about Warren. That dude is not getting 50% of the carries this year. You are bugging out NC

[Captain Lemming]

The only thing I disagree with here is: I don't think he's confusing the two. He's a smart kid. He full-well understands. Yet he knows that's the best argument they have to influence their value.

He's not doing anything different than any of us would do - sorry dizz - but, even at our own jobs.

If someone started a push saying teachers/carpenters/IT/whatever your profession is underpaid and the majority of people in that trade were on the bandwagon... I think most of us would support that effort that ultimately was to put more $$ in our own pocket.

I agree with this, dont blame him for the topic. But real world fax is what he does not know yet.

[Northern_Blitz]

but WE DID pay him $18 mill

And while $18M sounds like a lot, it put him in the top-20 WRs.

Najee is already the 22nd highest paid RB by AAV.

I think many of us are worried that we will pay Najee a big contract like we tried to do with Bell. In part because he's a good leader and a good person. And because we're pretty loyal (although maybe Edmunds would disagree).

I don't think anyone would complain about giving Najee a contract that made him the 20th or so paid RB by AAV. He's currently 22nd at ~$3.3M per year on his rookie deal. If we went to something like $4 or $4.5, I don't think anyone would complain too loudly. I think even making him the 10th paid guy currently wouldn't be too bad (~ $6.5M). That ~ $6.5 is probably around what the 5th year option will be if he doesn't make a probowl. But that's the same tier of player that Edmunds* was and we didn't give him the option and then we negotiated hard on his deal and kept him at around the minimum.

But I don't think he's worth $10+ (top 8 guys). I think he's above average, but not in the company of those guys. And in the current market, those guys might not be getting those contracts either. Apparently Barkley's contract offer dropped from $13M to $11M from March to now.

* Safety is another position that's been devalued if you aren't an elite guy. My guess is that the salaries at the S position aren't that much different than RB. And that safeties play more snaps and have an equally diverse set of duties as RBs. And I bet they have better aging curves than RBs do too. But they aren't trying to form their own bloc within the union because S was never a glory position.

[feltdizz]

I knew this would be your take as it is your EXACT reasoning on the matter.

But your relative VALUE is not about workload. Being more irreplaceable makes you more valuable.

If Najee gets 300 touches, but I can easily replace him with someone elses 300 touches, or even platoon guys to the same or better effect, his value will be no greater than the replacement.

Workload is not the primary factor.

If a back has averages only 5 touches a game because he does nothing but return punts but he averages 2 scores a game, I pay him the most money of any back in history.

Low workload but high irreplaceable value.

Backs dont get paid because they are easily replaced.

this is a myth. Good RB?s aren?t easily replaced.

Put Warren in at RB full time and I guarantee we see a drop in production.

Folks are gassed up by small sample sizes but don?t realize his first down ypc is worse than Najee. He isn?t pushing the pile on those short yards.

Check Daniel Jones numbers without Barkley. Its not pretty.

passer rating of 77 without Barkley
passer rating of 91 with Barkley

Everyone doesn?t have a Brady or a Mahommes.

Bills sure look like they needed a better RB last year too when it mattered most.

[Northern_Blitz]

this is a myth. Good RB?s aren?t easily replaced.

Put Warren in at RB full time and I guarantee we see a drop in production.

Folks are gassed up by small sample sizes but don?t realize his first down ypc is worse than Najee. He isn?t pushing the pile on those short yards.

Check Daniel Jones numbers without Barkley. Its not pretty.

passer rating of 77 without Barkley
passer rating of 91 with Barkley

Everyone doesn?t have a Brady or a Mahommes.

Bills sure look like they needed a better RB last year too when it mattered most.

We will be worse without Najee and with Warren.

But it's easy enough to snag the best or 2nd best RB in the draft next year. And they are generally ready to step into a starting role day 1.

And really, none of it matters if KP isn't above average.

And we're not talking about replacing Najee now (except Joel, who is wrong IMO). We're talking about replacing Najee after year 4 or 5 or 6. At that point, his production is likely to fall of quickly and a young player will likely be better (and cheaper) over the following 4 years or so.

[Captain Lemming]

this is a myth. Good RB?s aren?t easily replaced.

Put Warren in at RB full time and I guarantee we see a drop in production.

Folks are gassed up by small sample sizes but don?t realize his first down ypc is worse than Najee. He isn?t pushing the pile on those short yards.

Check Daniel Jones numbers without Barkley. Its not pretty.

passer rating of 77 without Barkley
passer rating of 91 with Barkley

Everyone doesn?t have a Brady or a Mahommes.

Bills sure look like they needed a better RB last year too when it mattered most.

Bills had 6 chances to draft the leading rusher in the SB. It is not that hard.

Sure not everyone has a Brady or Mahommes. Last one NOT a potential GOAT was Stafford. I cant even name his running back.

Stafford is too good? The last AVERAGE QB to win the SB? His back?

Dont make me smack you with THE CHAMPION EAGLES scrap heap duo again Dizz.

[Born2Steel]

I posted this on another forum.

I have never been a fan of taking a RB/WR/TE in the 1st round. That said, a WR or TE can play themselves into 1st round value. The issue with a RB is the more he produces on the field, the more wear and tear he is accumulating, and he's actually decreasing in value for his 2nd contract. Yes I know, RBs make more on their 2nd contract than on their rookie contract. I'm talking about his value. A team takes a RB in the 1st round for a 4yr rookie contract. If they are worthy, they get a 5th yr team option enacted. Then, they can be franchise tagged, I believe thrice. That is potentially 8 years without a 2nd contract and now they are usually backup material, if that.

Najee will make $13M for his 4yrs
Edwards-Helaire made $5M on his 5th yr option
RBs tag number is $10M year1
year2 $12M
year3 $17M

Forgive my math but by my count if Najee signed up for these 'options', he could make a total of $57M over an 8yr career. Roughly $7M/yr.

I understand why RBs are frustrated. Maybe teams are being smart taking a RB in the 1st round.

[feltdizz]

I posted this on another forum.

I have never been a fan of taking a RB/WR/TE in the 1st round. That said, a WR or TE can play themselves into 1st round value. The issue with a RB is the more he produces on the field, the more wear and tear he is accumulating, and he's actually decreasing in value for his 2nd contract. Yes I know, RBs make more on their 2nd contract than on their rookie contract. I'm talking about his value. A team takes a RB in the 1st round for a 4yr rookie contract. If they are worthy, they get a 5th yr team option enacted. Then, they can be franchise tagged, I believe thrice. That is potentially 8 years without a 2nd contract and now they are usually backup material, if that.

Najee will make $13M for his 4yrs
Edwards-Helaire made $5M on his 5th yr option
RBs tag number is $10M year1
year2 $12M
year3 $17M

Forgive my math but by my count if Najee signed up for these 'options', he could make a total of $57M over an 8yr career. Roughly $7M/yr.

I understand why RBs are frustrated. Maybe teams are being smart taking a RB in the 1st round.

2 tags, not 3

[Blitzer]

My thoughts are simple. I agree with everything Harris said. That being said, he is under contract for 2 more years with an option for another. Alot of things can happen in that time. Perform and see what happens.

[Born2Steel]

2 tags, not 3

With 2 tags he would make $40 over 7 seasons. Easy math and easy to understand why they’re talking. Same point either way.

[feltdizz]

We will be worse without Najee and with Warren.

But it's easy enough to snag the best or 2nd best RB in the draft next year. And they are generally ready to step into a starting role day 1.

And really, none of it matters if KP isn't above average.

And we're not talking about replacing Najee now (except Joel, who is wrong IMO). We're talking about replacing Najee after year 4 or 5 or 6. At that point, his production is likely to fall of quickly and a young player will likely be better (and cheaper) over the following 4 years or so.

I don?t think its easy to snag the best RB in a draft unless its a down year for RB?s.

Seems like lately as soon as a team grabs a RB other teams follow up. When we drafted Najee, Etienne was picked almost immediately after. This year, 2 RB?s went in the first 12 picks.

Now, if its a group of RB?s teams aren?t excited about you may get them in the second round.

but I also don?t agree its ?easier for RB?s than other positions? to play day 1.

Every year we see talented players play day 1 and have impact. Claypool, Pickens, Bush, JuJu, Pouncey, etc. If you are good and the team has a hole you can fill, you will fill it. Even those who aren?t elite like Moore started day 1.

[feltdizz]

Delvin Cook sounds like he is trying to get a budding war going in the AFC East. Rumored to go to Miami but now the Jets got AR to take a huge paycut ($35 mill) and are in talks with Cook.

Will be interesting to see what numbers he can get. 4 straight years of 1,000+ yards per year Pro Bowl production. That should be worth some nice coin but I doubt he gets a nice pay day.

[Northern_Blitz]

I don?t think its easy to snag the best RB in a draft unless its a down year for RB?s.

Seems like lately as soon as a team grabs a RB other teams follow up. When we drafted Najee, Etienne was picked almost immediately after. This year, 2 RB?s went in the first 12 picks.

Now, if its a group of RB?s teams aren?t excited about you may get them in the second round.

but I also don?t agree its ?easier for RB?s than other positions? to play day 1.

Every year we see talented players play day 1 and have impact. Claypool, Pickens, Bush, JuJu, Pouncey, etc. If you are good and the team has a hole you can fill, you will fill it. Even those who aren?t elite like Moore started day 1.

2 RBs in the first round this year (both fairly early)
0 RBs in the first round the year before
2 RBs in the first round the year before that (Najee at 24, Etienne at 25)
1 RB in the first round the year before that (@ 32 so every team got a chance to draft him.
1 RB in the first round the year before that (@ 24).

So in 2 of the last 5 years, every team in the league could have picked whoever they thought was the best RB in the draft without making a trade.

In 4 of the last 5 years, you could have the best RB in the league if you were naturally had a pick above 24 or were willing to trade it (3/4 of the teams in the league in each year, so the odds of being in that group in that span is pretty high...maybe unless you have a great QB, in which case who cares who your RB is).

The anomaly in the last 5 years is this year (where it was hard to get a RB because 2 went in the top 12).

When we drafted Najee, I wasn't a huge fan of RBs in the first. But I also thought (and wrote here) "at least we'll have the 5th year option, so we could in theory go option-tag-tag). But he hasn't been as good as I hoped he'd be (yet). And the price of the option relative to the market hasn't been as low as I though (not just for RBs...5th year options are much more expensive now then they used to be) .

It's not hard to attain good back Felt. I know you don't want it to be true, but it is.

I don't have the data on RB being one of the easiest positions to pick up. But it's pretty much always said about the position, so I assume that it's more or less true.