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I posted a chart a while back on QB completion rates under pressure. It showed KP to be pretty much average which, considering he was a rookie, is a positive. But I am not sure it told the whole picture. A QB can complete a high % of throws by dumping to a back for example. While the QB gets 'credit' for the completion the play is basically a rushing play. In the NFL the majority of rushing plays result in negative EPA.
OTOH, QB passing EPA/play adjusts for a bunch of different things that can give a truer picture of the play (e.g. down, distance, field position, time remaining, etc). Similar to completion rate, here's a plot of QBs passing EPA per play under pressure measured as the % difference from the NFL average. This gives a better picture of how much better or worse the QB was relative to his peers.
Note: this data is only for QBs that played at least 7 games and attempted at least 100 passes under pressure. By doing this we filter fliers that could show extreme EPAs due to only few plays. Also, this is passing EPA only and does not count QB rushes for example.
[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oLjsu2]
[/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oLjsu2]% Difference EPA_PLY under pressure vs NFL Average (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr
KP ended up about 20% better than the other QBs in the group. MT about 35% better. You might ask whether EPA includes plays resulting in INTs. The answer is yes, it results in negative EPA. But, how negative depends on where and when the INT happens. For example, an INT in the RZ in the last 2 mins. of the half might be less negative (less likely resulting in opponent points) than an INT on their own 20 yd line (very likely resulting in opponent points).
Also note some of the names on the minus side are surprising, Rodgers, Brady, LJ... and Mac Jones, wow!
Honestly after putting this together it looks like KP just might be a QB that can excel in off schedule plays which in the NFL is what separates the greats from the rest.
NFL 2023 can't get here soon enough!
OTOH, QB passing EPA/play adjusts for a bunch of different things that can give a truer picture of the play (e.g. down, distance, field position, time remaining, etc). Similar to completion rate, here's a plot of QBs passing EPA per play under pressure measured as the % difference from the NFL average. This gives a better picture of how much better or worse the QB was relative to his peers.
Note: this data is only for QBs that played at least 7 games and attempted at least 100 passes under pressure. By doing this we filter fliers that could show extreme EPAs due to only few plays. Also, this is passing EPA only and does not count QB rushes for example.
[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oLjsu2]
[/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oLjsu2]% Difference EPA_PLY under pressure vs NFL Average (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on FlickrKP ended up about 20% better than the other QBs in the group. MT about 35% better. You might ask whether EPA includes plays resulting in INTs. The answer is yes, it results in negative EPA. But, how negative depends on where and when the INT happens. For example, an INT in the RZ in the last 2 mins. of the half might be less negative (less likely resulting in opponent points) than an INT on their own 20 yd line (very likely resulting in opponent points).
Also note some of the names on the minus side are surprising, Rodgers, Brady, LJ... and Mac Jones, wow!
Honestly after putting this together it looks like KP just might be a QB that can excel in off schedule plays which in the NFL is what separates the greats from the rest.
NFL 2023 can't get here soon enough!
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