QB Deep Passing; NGS vs PFF Rankings

[NorthCoast]

Here's a counter opinion to PFF's deep ball passer rankings. NGS also does their own rankings based on models and expected outcomes. They only rank the top 10 QBs and KP doesn't make the cut. In fact, he doesn't even make honorable mention. Similar to PFF, NGS has both a 'passing score' and a 'passer rating'.

NGS and PFF both agree on the top QB but there are clearly some huge differences in the rankings. KP is the obvious one (not ranked in top 10 by NGS) but also several others that have wildly different ranks. Charted this out from their respective data. NGS also shows their 'passing score' correlation to W/L records..... pretty decent.

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2022-geno-smith-tua-tagovailoa-excel-a

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfc4m][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfc4m]NGS_Rk and PFF_Rk (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfcUK][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfcUK]NGS_PassRtg and PFF_PassRtg (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGhaf6][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGhaf6]NGS_PassScore and PFF_PassGrade (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[whisper]

KP doesn't deserve mention in top 10 of QB's anything so far.

[NorthCoast]

Redid the chart showing the order of relative difference in ranks between NGS and PFF. Can't say I watched much Carr last season but the rank difference is crazy.

PFF seems penalize the QBs compared to NGS in many cases.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGd9rT][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGd9rT]NGS_Rk and PFF_Rk (3)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[WindyCitySteel]

Meh, just putting fancy words around results-based counting stats. Tua's deep ball is a floating turd, he just has two of the best deep ball receivers in football on the same team.

[NorthCoast]

Meh, just putting fancy words around results-based counting stats. Tua's deep ball is a floating turd, he just has two of the best deep ball receivers in football on the same team.

Oh, I see. Tua gets knocked because he gets the ball to his playmakers at a high rate. Makes sense

And you clearly didn't bother to read NGS's methods which includes tape analysis.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Here's a counter opinion to PFF's deep ball passer rankings. NGS also does their own rankings based on models and expected outcomes. They only rank the top 10 QBs and KP doesn't make the cut. In fact, he doesn't even make honorable mention. Similar to PFF, NGS has both a 'passing score' and a 'passer rating'.

NGS and PFF both agree on the top QB but there are clearly some huge differences in the rankings. KP is the obvious one (not ranked in top 10 by NGS) but also several others that have wildly different ranks. Charted this out from their respective data. NGS also shows their 'passing score' correlation to W/L records..... pretty decent.

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2022-geno-smith-tua-tagovailoa-excel-a

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfc4m][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfc4m]NGS_Rk and PFF_Rk (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfcUK][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGfcUK]NGS_PassRtg and PFF_PassRtg (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGhaf6][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2oGhaf6]NGS_PassScore and PFF_PassGrade (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

+1 The data is the data.

[WindyCitySteel]

Process > outcomes. You guys are stuck in the 70s stats, just throw a few frilly acronyms around them and call them "advanced".

Here's a brain twister for you: why were the Steeler receivers so good at breaking tackles, and yet the Steelers were so bad at YAC?

Canada/Tomlin's offense is the root of all problems with this passing game.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Kozora/status/1668334924070551553?s=20

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Process > outcomes. You guys are stuck in the 70s stats, just throw a few frilly acronyms around them and call them "advanced".

Here's a brain twister for you: why were the Steeler receivers so good at breaking tackles, and yet the Steelers were so bad at YAC?

Canada/Tomlin's offense is the root of all problems with this passing game.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Kozora/stat...070551553?s=20

Our WR's are handicapped with a QB who has a weak arm and throws it very short because of it. He has a slow mind to. What did he score on the S2 test? I want to know. We know he scored a 17 on the wonderlic, which is low. He doesn't process informations quickly or strategically think well in games. I'm serious. Nothing against him personally, but we could have a football dummy type of QB who isn't a runner and does not have a good or above average arm. Heck his velocity of the ball is low. I wish the NFL had a radar gun on every 10 yard throw. He had one good year of 4 at QB in weak conference. Yet he was our first round pick? Who was the man he was chummy with at Pitt and shared a stadium with? Of that's right, Tomlin. He mixes is family, friendship, and politics with football.

Who picked our OC? Oh right Tomlin again. Ben Rothlisbeger isn't there to save him anymore and win all those games. IMO, Art Rooney II, the majority owner has political reasons and rare patience. Those are reason's why Tomlin is our head coach. No other owner would tolerate not winning a playoff game for six years and keeping his head coach. Tomlin did not win a playoff game for SIX seasons in a row. Will it be seven? I sincerely hope he is fired. His contact runs out in 2024. He won't be fired, but won't get a new contact either if this happens....I hope.

[whisper]

Our WR's are handicapped with a QB who has a weak arm and throws it very short because of it. He has a slow mind to. What did he score on the S2 test? I want to know. We know he scored a 17 on the wonderlic, which is low. He doesn't process informations quickly or strategically think well in games. I'm serious. Nothing against him personally, but we could have a football dummy type of QB who isn't a runner and does not have a good or above average arm. Heck his velocity of the ball is low. I wish the NFL had a radar gun on every 10 yard throw. He had one good year of 4 at QB in weak conference. Yet he was our first round pick? Who was the man he was chummy with at Pitt and shared a stadium with? Of that's right, Tomlin. He mixes is family, friendship, and politics with football.

Who picked our OC? Oh right Tomlin again. Ben Rothlisbeger isn't there to save him anymore and win all those games. IMO, Art Rooney II, the majority owner has political reasons and rare patience. Those are reason's why Tomlin is our head coach. No other owner would tolerate not winning a playoff game for six years and keeping his head coach. Tomlin did not win a playoff game for SIX seasons in a row. Will it be seven? I sincerely hope he is fired. His contact runs out in 2024. He won't be fired, but won't get a new contact either if this happens....I hope.

This year will go a long way to discovering what KP is or is not. Oh, wait, I forgot: All inadequacies will be blamed on Canada who will be fired.