Trending: Explosive Plays

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  • NorthCoast
    Legend
    • Sep 2008
    • 26636

    Trending: Explosive Plays

    Explosive plays trending down...blame who you want:

    [url=https://flic.kr/p/2o46PUm][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2o46PUm]Capture[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr
  • WindyCitySteel
    Legend
    • Nov 2011
    • 15684

    #2
    Pickens is the biggest explosive play threat and he seems to jog in vicinity of DBs hoping for a 50/50 ball to make a highlight reel catch. DJ is the best YAC threat and every route is coming back to the QB. Kenny's hesitant to throw deep, saw it several times yesterday. Gunner Olszewski got as many touches as Pickens.

    Lot of reasons.

    Comment

    • flippy
      Legend
      • Dec 2008
      • 17088

      #3
      Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
      Pickens is the biggest explosive play threat and he seems to jog in vicinity of DBs hoping for a 50/50 ball to make a highlight reel catch. DJ is the best YAC threat and every route is coming back to the QB. Kenny's hesitant to throw deep, saw it several times yesterday. Gunner Olszewski got as many touches as Pickens.

      Lot of reasons.
      Seems he’s going uber conservative and taking what the D gives him. And it also seems they might even be avoiding certain parts of the field at times to keep it simple.

      It’s like they’re grooming him to have to be perfect in execution like Tom Brady where he can beat you throwing 3 yard passes all game and won’t make a mistake.
      sigpic

      Comment

      • NorthCoast
        Legend
        • Sep 2008
        • 26636

        #4
        Originally posted by flippy
        Seems he’s going uber conservative and taking what the D gives him. And it also seems they might even be avoiding certain parts of the field at times to keep it simple.

        It’s like they’re grooming him to have to be perfect in execution like Tom Brady where he can beat you throwing 3 yard passes all game and won’t make a mistake.
        This is what Belichick has done with Jones. You now hear the frustrations. Say what you want but Roethlisberger decided early on that he was going to play the way he wanted to. This was the cause of friction with Cowher. But in the end it worked out for the best.

        Comment

        • WindyCitySteel
          Legend
          • Nov 2011
          • 15684

          #5
          The quick 3 yard throws only work if a guy is open and has a chance for YAC, not facing the QB or falling OOB or smothered by the CB who calls the play before you do.

          Comment

          • Eich
            Legend
            • Jul 2010
            • 7044

            #6
            Originally posted by NorthCoast
            This is what Belichick has done with Jones. You now hear the frustrations. Say what you want but Roethlisberger decided early on that he was going to play the way he wanted to. This was the cause of friction with Cowher. But in the end it worked out for the best.
            With Kenny's excellent mobility, I think he could play Roethlisberger's game. A lot of big plays can open up when the QB can extend the play for 5+ seconds. I'd like to see a little of that sprinkled in. I think you really need a few big plays to open things up in the short game.

            Comment

            • SteelerOfDeVille
              Legend
              • May 2008
              • 9069

              #7
              I'm nitpicking with the term "explosive" for just 15 yard plays, but I do like the stat as a reference.

              I wonder if some of the trend is with KP adjusting and taking fewer chances to protect the ball
              2013 MNF Executive Champion!

              Comment

              • Starlifter
                Legend
                • May 2008
                • 5078

                #8
                I appreciate the graph, but I think the sample size is too small as well as factoring in a rookie qb. I’ll be curious to see what mid season next year looks like.
                2014 MNF EXEC CHAMPION!!!

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                • feltdizz
                  Legend
                  • May 2008
                  • 27532

                  #9
                  Originally posted by NorthCoast
                  Explosive plays trending down...blame who you want:

                  [url=https://flic.kr/p/2o46PUm][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2o46PUm]Capture[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr
                  We won the last 2 games. I’m not blaming anyone.
                  Steelers 27
                  Rats 16

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                  • NorthCoast
                    Legend
                    • Sep 2008
                    • 26636

                    #10
                    Originally posted by SteelerOfDeVille
                    I'm nitpicking with the term "explosive" for just 15 yard plays, but I do like the stat as a reference.

                    I wonder if some of the trend is with KP adjusting and taking fewer chances to protect the ball
                    Pick another number and I'll replot.

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                    • Northern_Blitz
                      Legend
                      • Dec 2008
                      • 24373

                      #11
                      Originally posted by NorthCoast
                      Pick another number and I'll replot.
                      I think that the plot is fine.

                      But I'm not sure if that line tells you much.

                      If you plotted the same line after the Cincy game, it would be pointing slightly up instead of slightly down.

                      I wonder if part of this is that we were ahead more in the last couple games? In the last two games, we've had the lead or been tied for something like 115 / 120 minutes. So maybe we've been less aggressive than we would have been if we were down by a bunch?

                      I wonder if there's a correlation between explosive plays and current point differential. Seems like trailing by more than 10 or more would lead to more throws (where explosive play rates are higher) and my guess is that the air yards on throws when you're losing by a bunch is more than if you're winning or close. But it's just a guess.

                      Hopefully we get more explosive plays next week.

                      Comment

                      • SteelerOfDeVille
                        Legend
                        • May 2008
                        • 9069

                        #12
                        Originally posted by NorthCoast
                        Pick another number and I'll replot.
                        I love that you do that... And I *do* like the 15 because it matters - it's the point where defenses start to back up, some.

                        It's the term "explosive" - in short, it's me not you. LOL

                        (it's me thinking, a 8 yard quick slant with an 8 yard RAC, is that really "explosive"?)
                        Last edited by SteelerOfDeVille; 12-05-2022, 05:58 PM.
                        2013 MNF Executive Champion!

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                        • NorthCoast
                          Legend
                          • Sep 2008
                          • 26636

                          #13
                          Originally posted by SteelerOfDeVille
                          I love that you do that... And I *do* like the 15 because it matters - it's the point where defenses start to back up, some.

                          It's the term "explosive" - in short, it's me not you. LOL

                          (it's me thinking, a 8 yard quick slant with an 8 yard RAC, is that really "explosive"?)
                          Ahh,. Gotcha. I can't argue the word. It's in the eye of the beholder I suppose.

                          Comment

                          • LPMAN
                            Pro Bowler
                            • Sep 2021
                            • 2032

                            #14
                            Originally posted by NorthCoast
                            This is what Belichick has done with Jones. You now hear the frustrations. Say what you want but Roethlisberger decided early on that he was going to play the way he wanted to. This was the cause of friction with Cowher. But in the end it worked out for the best.
                            Bradshaw was called the blonde bomber in college, Ben emulated his game over Elway. Most of Picketts big plays in college were quick throws with YAC yards. I don't see that changing anytime soon. Your idenity is your identity. Ben would pass up a 10 yard pass on 3rd & 7 if he thought someone was open long. Pickett will throw short every time if they are open short.

                            Comment

                            • MCHammer
                              Starter
                              • Aug 2010
                              • 574

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                              I think that the plot is fine.

                              But I'm not sure if that line tells you much.

                              If you plotted the same line after the Cincy game, it would be pointing slightly up instead of slightly down.

                              I wonder if part of this is that we were ahead more in the last couple games? In the last two games, we've had the lead or been tied for something like 115 / 120 minutes. So maybe we've been less aggressive than we would have been if we were down by a bunch?

                              I wonder if there's a correlation between explosive plays and current point differential. Seems like trailing by more than 10 or more would lead to more throws (where explosive play rates are higher) and my guess is that the air yards on throws when you're losing by a bunch is more than if you're winning or close. But it's just a guess.

                              Hopefully we get more explosive plays next week.
                              if you look at that graph, the first Cincinnati game is the exception to the winning formula. This team has more big plays in losses. The last two weeks show a formula of ball control meaning victory for this team. This will change with time and must change for the Steelers to be a contender in the modern NFL. But for now, it’s working with a rookie QB learning (and an offensive line beginning to play well as a unit) and improving with each game.

                              I’m a pessimistic type when things are going well. Yet I’m encouraged by things lately. If this offense could put together a consistent 4 quarters the Steelers would be a legit playoff team. I think it will come. The question is whether we can compete for division by next year.
                              Last edited by MCHammer; 12-05-2022, 10:48 PM.

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