NFL season begins in a few hours

[Northern_Blitz]

Everyone remembers the brilliant playoff performances from Allen, but he's too up and down accuracy-wise for my liking. 60% or lower comp pct in 8 games last year, only 3 from Mahomes in his "everybody has figured him out down year". 4 for Brady, 1 for Burrow.

Allen is capable of brilliance, but he also keeps opposing teams in the game with his inaccuracy and TOs.

Interesting. I wonder how that compares to Ben. I guess that it's kind of similar with the higher variance compared to other very good QBs.

[feltdizz]

You miss my point. I agree with your assessment.
Thus the smiley when I said Von was not old.
He is clearly old and on the decline.
My sarcastic comment is to show how flawed PFF is.

I have often said PFF tries too hard to be smarter than everyone else creating flawed conclusions.
They rated TJ Watt at 89.5 as an edge rusher- last season
They rated Von Miller 91.2 as an edge rusher- last season

Their rating system is seriously flawed because THAT is ridiculous.

I believe I know why. Miller had the leagues highest “coverage” grade among edge rushers. A weakness for TJ.
I bet you never knew that. I did not.

This demonstrates perfectly their flawed reasoning.

PFF, tries too be so smart they see what your average fan misses. In doing so they undervalue a players core value in favor of one that has lesser value in his role. The whole, “you gotta look beyond just sacks like a typical fan” taken to an extreme degree. They are too smart to make the OBVIOUS judgement that an edge RUSHER more than double the sacks (22) had a MUCH BETTER season than a guy who got 9 (Miller played for 2 teams so you missed some).

Therefore, a guy who does an NFL RECORD LEVEL JOB at job one is graded lower than a guy who lead the league in a secondary skill.

It is like saying Hines Ward was better than Jerry Rice because he was the better blocker. Ike was better than Deon because Ike was an awesome tackler and for Deon it was a weakness.

If BOTH are elite at the core job, you can make the case that the secondary job gives a guy the edge (the pro Woodson over Deon argument).

But if one guy is HISTORICALLY GREAT at job 1 and the other guy is AVERAGE at that aspect, but is excellent in a secondary role, THERE IS NO WAY you should rate player 2 better.

There ARE TIMES, that the OBVIOUS answer is the right one. Heck it USUALLY is.
You don’t have to chart every play to figure that out.

THAT is why it is ridiculous to think PFF is the be all end all when evaluating players.

While I have no love for PFF I do wonder if having 22 sacks but also being part of the worst run defense has something to do with the overall rating of Watt vs Miller.

No idea because I like to use my eyes vs PFF but I wonder how good Miller was vs the run when grading an overall score.

[Rocky Mtn]

I can't wait! Football juices are flowing! ****'s obout to get real!

[whisper]

You miss my point. I agree with your assessment.
Thus the smiley when I said Von was not old.
He is clearly old and on the decline.
My sarcastic comment is to show how flawed PFF is.

I have often said PFF tries too hard to be smarter than everyone else creating flawed conclusions.
They rated TJ Watt at 89.5 as an edge rusher- last season
They rated Von Miller 91.2 as an edge rusher- last season

Their rating system is seriously flawed because THAT is ridiculous.

I believe I know why. Miller had the leagues highest “coverage” grade among edge rushers. A weakness for TJ.
I bet you never knew that. I did not.

This demonstrates perfectly their flawed reasoning.

PFF, tries too be so smart they see what your average fan misses. In doing so they undervalue a players core value in favor of one that has lesser value in his role. The whole, “you gotta look beyond just sacks like a typical fan” taken to an extreme degree. They are too smart to make the OBVIOUS judgement that an edge RUSHER more than double the sacks (22) had a MUCH BETTER season than a guy who got 9 (Miller played for 2 teams so you missed some).

Therefore, a guy who does an NFL RECORD LEVEL JOB at job one is graded lower than a guy who lead the league in a secondary skill.

It is like saying Hines Ward was better than Jerry Rice because he was the better blocker. Ike was better than Deon because Ike was an awesome tackler and for Deon it was a weakness.

If BOTH are elite at the core job, you can make the case that the secondary job gives a guy the edge (the pro Woodson over Deon argument).

But if one guy is HISTORICALLY GREAT at job 1 and the other guy is AVERAGE at that aspect, but is excellent in a secondary role, THERE IS NO WAY you should rate player 2 better.

There ARE TIMES, that the OBVIOUS answer is the right one. Heck it USUALLY is.
You don’t have to chart every play to figure that out.

THAT is why it is ridiculous to think PFF is the be all end all when evaluating players.

I got and grasp your above points.

[Captain Lemming]

While I have no love for PFF I do wonder if having 22 sacks but also being part of the worst run defense has something to do with the overall rating of Watt vs Miller.

No idea because I like to use my eyes vs PFF but I wonder how good Miller was vs the run when grading an overall score.

I think you have a point here.

Miller was rated number 2 in run defense at the position DESPITE having 50 total tackles. TJ has 48 SOLO and 68 total tackles.

TJ also had 21 tackles for loss to lead the league.

But TJ missed 13 tackles, Miller 5.

My takeaway?

TJ more frequently gets to a runner but has a miss about every other game that Miller does not have.

Questions:
Wouldn't you rather have a guy lead the league in tackles for loss, actually effectively get to the runner to make more tackles at the expense of half a miss per game?

Goes back to my beef with the grading. Miller's reward for not messing up is greater than TJs credit for making actual plays.

Greater degree of difficulty getting to a runner, greater the likelihood of missing a tackle.

Miller makes plays he is supposed to make but is less likely to make a play at all.

Put another way.

TJ had 18 MORE TACKLES in spite of having more misses!!!

What that tells me is that TJ is effectively penalized for getting to the runner more frequently.

[flippy]

I think you have a point here.

Miller was rated number 2 in run defense at the position DESPITE having 50 total tackles. TJ has 48 SOLO and 68 total tackles.

TJ also had 21 tackles for loss to lead the league.

But TJ missed 13 tackles, Miller 5.

My takeaway?

TJ more frequently gets to a runner but has a miss about every other game that Miller does not have.

Questions:
Wouldn't you rather have a guy lead the league in tackles for loss, actually effectively get to the runner to make more tackles at the expense of half a miss per game?

Goes back to my beef with the grading. Miller's reward for not messing up is greater than TJs credit for making actual plays.

Greater degree of difficulty getting to a runner, greater the likelihood of missing a tackle.

Miller makes plays he is supposed to make but is less likely to make a play at all.

Put another way.

TJ had 18 MORE TACKLES in spite of having more misses!!!

What that tells me is that TJ is effectively penalized for getting to the runner more frequently.

Im guessing TJ gets to guys that Miller never sniffs.

I do not watch that much of Miller, but TJ reads plays extremely well and seems to guess right on which way a play is going in tricky spots all the time.

Would be interested why he misses tackles at that rate? I’d guess it’s that he’s getting to guys and reaching them in spots other wouldn’t cause I don’t notice him missing tons of tackles.

[Captain Lemming]

TJ allowed 100 percent of the passes thrown to his man. 109 QB rating. Yikes!!!

In real terms?
He allowed 4 of 4 for a total of 41 yards, zero scores. That is not a game, that is the whole season.

Miller allowed "only" 7 of 8 for 68 yards.

[Captain Lemming]

Im guessing TJ gets to guys that Miller never sniffs.

Would be interested why he misses tackles at that rate? I’d guess it’s that he’s getting to guys and reaching them in spots other wouldn’t cause I don’t notice him missing tons of tackles.

My point exactly.

But I take issue with this:

TJ reads plays extremely well and seems to guess right on which way a play is going in tricky spots all the time.

TJs biggest flaw is in the effort to make a backfield play he takes risks shooting the wrong gaps. He does this alot.

But it is a risk/reward thing. Between sacks and tackles for loss he made a staggering 43 splash plays taking that risk.

I'm sure that factors into his grade, but not enough to make him not be a top 3 edge guy.

[flippy]

My point exactly.

But I take issue with this:



TJs biggest flaw is in the effort to make a backfield play he takes risks shooting the wrong gaps. He does this alot.

But it is a risk/reward thing. Between sacks and tackles for loss he made a staggering 43 splash plays taking that risk.

I'm sure that factors into his grade, but not enough to make him not be a top 3 edge guy.

I think we’re saying the same thing.

I think I’m calling your wrong gap a guess for TJ which tends to work out a lot.

I think TJ is a smart player and know where he’s supposed to be and that’s why I wouldn’t really call it the wrong gap vs being his educated guess on where the play is going.

[Captain Lemming]

I think we’re saying the same thing.

I think I’m calling your wrong gap a guess for TJ which tends to work out a lot.

I think TJ is a smart player and know where he’s supposed to be and that’s why I wouldn’t really call it the wrong gap vs being his educated guess on where the play is going.

I would suggest it is not "reading the play" as much as it is simply trying to blow past his man to make a backfield play.

Gap does not matter if the tackle is made before a ba k reaches the LOS.

Heck he doesn't even seem to read run or pass. Down, distance doesn't matter. He treats most every play as a pass rush, which is why an absurd number of his run tackles are for loss.

Watch what TJ or Cam says when we get gouged on the ground.

They talk gap integrity was the problem.

[feltdizz]

I would suggest it is not "reading the play" as much as it is simply trying to blow past his man to make a backfield play.

Gap does not matter if the tackle is made before a ba k reaches the LOS.

Heck he doesn't even seem to read run or pass. Down, distance doesn't matter. He treats most every play as a pass rush, which is why an absurd number of his run tackles are for loss.

Watch what TJ or Cam says when we get gouged on the ground.

They talk gap integrity was the problem.

how many of those gap integrity plays resulted in huge gains?

I think part of the reason we see huge holes and long runs is because TJ is getting upfield and teams are using that against him on some run plays.

Not defending PFF but just wondering if he is being graded on it negatively.

[Rocky Mtn]

My point exactly.

But I take issue with this:



TJs biggest flaw is in the effort to make a backfield play he takes risks shooting the wrong gaps. He does this alot.

But it is a risk/reward thing. Between sacks and tackles for loss he made a staggering 43 splash plays taking that risk.

I'm sure that factors into his grade, but not enough to make him not be a top 3 edge guy.

Love your last two posts. For me I'll take the splash plays as in TJs case when the the negative plays are overshadowed by the amount of plays he makes or is there to make . Good research! Gotta love those splash plays!

[Northern_Blitz]

TJ allowed 100 percent of the passes thrown to his man. 109 QB rating. Yikes!!!

In real terms?
He allowed 4 of 4 for a total of 41 yards, zero scores. That is not a game, that is the whole season.

Miller allowed "only" 7 of 8 for 68 yards.

Sounds like TJ should get cut. It's probably Tomlin's fault.

[hawaiiansteel]

Sounds like TJ should get cut. It's probably Tomlin's fault.

definitely Tomlin's fault

[Northern_Blitz]

how many of those gap integrity plays resulted in huge gains?

I think part of the reason we see huge holes and long runs is because TJ is getting upfield and teams are using that against him on some run plays.

Not defending PFF but just wondering if he is being graded on it negatively.

It would be interesting to see the film.

My understanding of our YPC against last season was basically that it dramatically increased when Cam came out and someon else (Mondeau?) came in.

I don't remember seeing tape or reading articles saying that TJ was blowing gaps. But maybe...

Did you see anything about this somewhere, or are you just thinking it might be an issue?