One-possession games and sustainability

[WindyCitySteel]

The Steelers were 8-2-1 in one-possession games last year, i.e. games where the final margin was less than or equal to 8. 89% of the Steelers wins were close, while only 28% of their losses were.

Furthermore, their only multiple-possession win came courtesy of a long Najee run in garbage time vs. a bad, wounded Cleveland team, and both of the one-possession losses required furious comebacks from large deficits to close the margin.

These numbers do not bode well for 2022, as this article points out. The Steelers are likely looking at a regression to the mean in this regard, which points to a rough year ahead.

https://thechirpsports.com/2020/06/12/the-nfl-one-possession-games-and-luck-the-art-of-overachieving/

This is a very interesting relationship to examine, as it would appear that if 90% of a team’s wins were the result of one-possession games, it is unlikely for that luck to be repeated. In essence, this should lead to a decline in performance the following season, holding all else equal.

[Northern_Blitz]

The quality of division opponents should be better too. I doubt we sweep the Rats and the Browns again.

But you never know...if we can play offense for 4 quarters (or at least +1 quarters), maybe the D can carry the team to a wild card spot. My guess is that we'll be in contention for a WC spot until pretty late in the season but that we fall just short. Although I've been underpredicting our wins for at least the last 2 years.

[whisper]

The Steelers were 8-2-1 in one-possession games last year, i.e. games where the final margin was less than or equal to 8. 89% of the Steelers wins were close, while only 28% of their losses were.

Furthermore, their only multiple-possession win came courtesy of a long Najee run in garbage time vs. a bad, wounded Cleveland team, and both of the one-possession losses required furious comebacks from large deficits to close the margin.

These numbers do not bode well for 2022, as this article points out. The Steelers are likely looking at a regression to the mean in this regard, which points to a rough year ahead.

https://thechirpsports.com/2020/06/1...overachieving/

Ben, rag arm and all, is the reason for so many wins coming down the stretch. With him gone, so are many of those type of wins.