Draft Expectations - Colbert/Tomlin Retrospective

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  • flippy
    Legend
    • Dec 2008
    • 17088

    Draft Expectations - Colbert/Tomlin Retrospective

    On the day of the draft, I decided to look back at Colbert/Tomlin's time together to see what we should realistically expect today.

    These guys have been together since 2007 and here's some highlights of their best picks over the years:

    07 - Timmons, Woodley, Spaeth, Gay
    08 - xxxx
    09 - Wallace, Keenan Lewis
    10 - Pouncey, Sanders, AB
    11 - Cam, Marcus Gilbert
    12 - Decastro
    13 - Leveon Bell, Vince
    14 - Shazier, Tuitt, Martavis Bryant
    15 - Dupree
    16 - Hargrave
    17 - Watt, Juju, Sutton, James Conner
    18 - Edmunds
    19 - Bush, Dionte, Gentry
    20 - Claypool, Highsmith, Dotson
    21 - Najee, Pat


    15 Years and did we even get 10 above average NFLers?

    Look at the last 10 years, we've got Watt, Bush, DJ, CC, Highsmith, Dotson, Najee, and Pat as starters. That's 8 starters out of the last 10 drafts. And of those 8, Edmunds and Bush are barely hanging on. Our 2 WRs are questionable. I want to believe in Highsmith and Dotson, but they're still unknowns. So we really have Watt, Najee, and Pat as 3 top notch starters.

    If you really dig into our last 15 years of drafting, it's easy to see why we haven't been winning playoff games recently. We haven't really been hitting on talent as much as we'd like to believe.

    There's some great players in there in Cam, TJ, AB, Leveon, Pouncey, Decastro, Najee, and Pat. But the rest, meh? And some of these good players didn't even stick around and are gone.

    So we've got a 1 in 2-3 chance of 1 good quality player being drafted and sticking around and contributing for a long time in each draft class.

    So when we go into this year's draft, there's a ton of excitement, but we need to be realistic. Odds are we might not come away with any meaningful players. We just got Najee and Pat last year, so by the odds, it's probably at least another year or 2 until we find another stud draftee.

    Maybe we are at a point where we really do need a new GM and some new thinking when it comes to drafting. Historically our team has been built through the draft and looking back over the last 15 years, our drafts are a pretty good reflection of the quality of team we have.

    And maybe Tomlin and the coaching staff deserve even more credit for keeping this team competitive and above 500 those last 15 years given the talent we've had to work with.

    Hopefully KC can go out with a bang and find us 5 HOFers in this draft class
    sigpic
  • WindyCitySteel
    Legend
    • Nov 2011
    • 15684

    #2
    I don't get how you're counting starters - JuJu and Conner were starters. Do you mean guys that are currently on the team?

    KC said you need your day 1 and 2 guys to be starters, so 3 guys every draft. Doesn't mean they'll all be All Pros.

    Comment

    • flippy
      Legend
      • Dec 2008
      • 17088

      #3
      Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
      I don't get how you're counting starters - JuJu and Conner were starters. Do you mean guys that are currently on the team?

      KC said you need your day 1 and 2 guys to be starters, so 3 guys every draft. Doesn't mean they'll all be All Pros.
      Im taking about guys who stick around and continue playing for the team for a number of years.

      You don’t draft good/great players and let them go.

      Look over the last couple of years how many guys that have been adequate that just didn’t last for multiple contracts.
      sigpic

      Comment

      • flippy
        Legend
        • Dec 2008
        • 17088

        #4
        I was also looking back to KCs time in Detroit from 90-99. Even less talent was added to that team thru the draft.
        sigpic

        Comment

        • WindyCitySteel
          Legend
          • Nov 2011
          • 15684

          #5
          NFL careers are short, with FA it's hard to keep guys together for 2nd and 3rd contracts. I'm guessing not many NFL teams have guys from their drafts 8-10 years ago. If they start and contribute for a few years, good pick. If they become stars, even better.

          Comment

          • Joel Buchsbaum
            Legend
            • Jan 2021
            • 7744

            #6
            Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
            NFL careers are short, with FA it's hard to keep guys together for 2nd and 3rd contracts. I'm guessing not many NFL teams have guys from their drafts 8-10 years ago. If they start and contribute for a few years, good pick. If they become stars, even better.
            2018, 2019, amd 2022 gutted this team. And we have nothing to show for 2014 and 2015. Colbert did some fine work over his tenure but not towards the end.
            Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

            Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

            *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***

            Comment

            • SteelerOfDeVille
              Legend
              • May 2008
              • 9069

              #7
              Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
              I don't get how you're counting starters - JuJu and Conner were starters. Do you mean guys that are currently on the team?

              KC said you need your day 1 and 2 guys to be starters, so 3 guys every draft. Doesn't mean they'll all be All Pros.
              I had the same question. And i think it's hard to exclude guys from 15 years ago... Pouncy was a lifer who was a perennial all pro - he's just retired. Decastro was a lifer, who was a pro bowler.

              All in all, there's only 22 starting spots and some of those are held by lifers - there comes a time with a really good team where you may only have 3-4 spots up for grabs to even be challenged. In 2017, the defense started with Shazier, VW, TJ, Cam, Tuitt, Hargrave, Haden. You have the other CB and both safeties open (Artie, S.Davis, M.Mitchell)

              I think sometimes we forgot how good some of these teams have been, and how deep these positions have been.

              Even last year when the team wasn't what it has been in year's past... ya know who the Giants starter at OLB is? Quincy Roche, who the Steelers cut because they had TJ, Highsmith and Ingram (I'm sure they wish they could undo that move).
              2013 MNF Executive Champion!

              Comment

              • Joel Buchsbaum
                Legend
                • Jan 2021
                • 7744

                #8
                Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                2018, 2019, and 2022 gutted this team. And we have nothing to show for 2014 and 2015. Colbert did some fine work over his tenure but not towards the end.
                Will he try a QB for legacy reasons? Nah, I think Colbert doesn't have that big of an ego.
                Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. I guess that in Art Rooney's II, opinion is worth a 3 year extension.

                Our 2024 draft looks to be grade A. Our 2023 draft is an A. The roster is talented, but Mike Tomlin is still the head coach.

                *** Mike Tomlin is the best coach since the AFL- NFL merger that has not won a playoff game in 8 seasons or more. It's either him or Lewis. ***

                Comment

                • SteelerOfDeVille
                  Legend
                  • May 2008
                  • 9069

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Joel Buchsbaum
                  Will he try a QB for legacy reasons? Nah, I think Colbert doesn't have that big of an ego.
                  so, if they get a QB does that mean he does in fact, have a big ego?
                  2013 MNF Executive Champion!

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