Do We OverValue Draft Picks on Good Teams?

[flippy]

I think the hardest thing to figure out when drafting is if you have a great team, how much do individual players matter?

When I go watch a certain guy at Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, etc., I end up seeing other guys around them standing out. In a team sport, teammates make an individual better.

Is it better to just go find teams with one standout player that's getting double/triple teamed all the time and still winning?

Do we end up overrating everyone on a team like Georgia's D because there's so many quality guys?

How do you isolate a guy when you're watching a good/great team?

I think the perfect example is Alabama QBs end up being mediocre at best in the NFL because their O is typically loaded compared to the competition. But heck, I've been watching Ridder and I started thinking he might have some good weapons around him that are making him look better.

I have a hard time isolating a lot of positions. It's almost easier to see guys on the edges at WR or CB and know which ones of those guys are elite. Or edge rushers that are long and quick. Others are hard to grade.

[WindyCitySteel]

Definitely plays a factor with OSU and Bama QBs, possibly Oklahoma, too. Stroud put up eye-popping numbers but he had three studs making great catches for him and getting wide open.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I think the hardest thing to figure out when drafting is if you have a great team, how much do individual players matter?

When I go watch a certain guy at Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, etc., I end up seeing other guys around them standing out. In a team sport, teammates make an individual better.

Is it better to just go find teams with one standout player that's getting double/triple teamed all the time and still winning?

Do we end up overrating everyone on a team like Georgia's D because there's so many quality guys?

How do you isolate a guy when you're watching a good/great team?

I think the perfect example is Alabama QBs end up being mediocre at best in the NFL because their O is typically loaded compared to the competition. But heck, I've been watching Ridder and I started thinking he might have some good weapons around him that are making him look better.

I have a hard time isolating a lot of positions. It's almost easier to see guys on the edges at WR or CB and know which ones of those guys are elite. Or edge rushers that are long and quick. Others are hard to grade.

I agree, and I had thought that the counter indicator showing players who would be great are those who play on mediocre teams in top conferences. Those players who do not play with great teammates so they are gameplanned by the opponent, and they play against the best in the country. Using that evaluation technique, two players who I thought would be great in the NFL: Bud Dupree and Benny Snell Jr from Kentucky of the SEC.

[flippy]

I agree, and I had thought that the counter indicator showing players who would be great are those who play on mediocre teams in top conferences. Those players who do not play with great teammates so they are gameplanned by the opponent, and they play against the best in the country. Using that evaluation technique, two players who I thought would be great in the NFL: Bud Dupree and Benny Snell Jr from Kentucky of the SEC.

That’s an interesting way to look at it.

You’re always going to have hits and misses with any strategy cause it usually comes down to the mental side of the game + avoiding/recovering from injuries.