"Trust The Process"

[NorthCoast]

Came across a fascinating article on the evolution of sports skill. The basic premise is that as skill evolves in a sport, the role of luck becomes more and more influential in outcomes. Or skill leads to more luck. It gets a little technical but the conclusion is straightforward;

Michael Mauboussin, a banker and academic, looked at how skill evolves over time, and how this paradoxically makes luck more important. His ideas impact not only sports but also investing and business.

Mauboussin was inspired by Stephen Jay Gould, the famous biologist who also wondered why no baseball player had hit .400 since Ted Williams in 1941. In exploring the data, he found that batting average has been consistent since that time, which suggests hitters and pitchers have improved at the same rate.

However, Gould found that the variance in batting average has dropped considerably from the 1940s to the first decade of the 2000s. Compared to 60 years before, a higher fraction of hitters cluster near the .260-.270 average. This implies luck is more important in distinguishing top hitters, and it makes a .400 hitter an extreme outlier.

The evolution of skill implies a smaller variance in skill. This means luck becomes more important. This is also true for NFL quarterbacks.

Let’s compare completion percentage for QBs in two periods: the 5 years after the NFL rule changes in 1978 that favored passing and a recent period (2013-2017). I looked at all QBs who had attempted at least 100 passes during a season.

Unlike batting average, completion percentage has increased from 55.7% in the early period to 62.8% in the recent period. Offense has evolved faster than defense in the NFL.

In addition, the standard deviation has dropped from 4.8% in the early period to 4.0% in the later period. The width of the bell curve has become skinnier for the completion percentage of NFL quarterbacks. This 16% decline is almost identical to the drop found by Gould in the spread of batting average.

Interceptions are even more interesting. The pick rate dropped from 4.5% in the early period to 2.4% in the recent period, a stunning decline that has made the forward pass significantly less risky. In addition, the standard deviation has dropped 28%.

With the clustering of NFL quarterbacks closer to the mean, luck becomes ever more important in the play of NFL quarterbacks.

It struck me how true this is becoming in the NFL. Highly skilled players from both teams and yet how many games do we see each Sunday where luck played a role in the outcome? It also explains why winning consistently in the post-season is a mirage. The best of the best are on the field and so luck becomes a dominant factor. (injuries also play a part. But injuries themselves are luck driven.)

Tomlin talks about "trusting the process" when he is building a team. Maybe this is because he understands the role of luck in games?

If you compete in a field where luck plays a role, you should focus more on the process of how you make decisions and rely less on the short-term outcomes. The reason is that luck breaks the direct link between skill and results—you can be skillful and have a poor outcome and unskillful and have a good outcome. Think of playing blackjack at a casino. Basic strategy says that you should stand— not ask for a hit—if you are dealt a 17. That’s the proper process, and ensures that you’ll do the best over the long haul. But if you ask for a hit and the dealer flips a 4, you’ll have won the hand despite a poor process. The point is that the outcome didn’t reveal the skill of the player, only the process did. So focus on process.

So it seems there is some method to Tomlin's madness when he speaks about the process.

https://thepowerrank.com/top-analytics-articles/

[Northern_Blitz]

Get ready NC.

I'll get blasted by a few posters for suggesting luck / chance is very important in playoff games.

But this makes a lot of sense IMO.

As you get more and more parity, outcomes of games come down to fewer and fewer plays. If the Bucs go play some HS team, they're going to kill them because they are going to destroy them on every play.

But if you clone the Bucs and they play themselves there is no skill advantage. So it comes down to a few plays.

Some people will call it "clutch". But I think that "clutch" is mostly just chance / luck at important times.

And guys who are very good end up flipping more heads than guys that aren't good. So they look like the perform better in the "clutch".

I think the flip side of this argument is a paper on golf. I think they looked at puts for birdie and par and controlled for distance from the pin. IIRC, they found that pro golfers were worse putting for birdie from the same distances vs. when they were putting for par. I think that suggests that there is some effect of putting pressure on yourself / clutch.

Although I think the same paper suggests that the reason is loss aversion vs. internal pressure.

I think this is the right paper. But I didn't read through the full text to make sure it's the one I'm talking about (that I remember reading before) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=1419027

[NorthCoast]

Get ready NC.

I'll get blasted by a few posters for suggesting luck / chance is very important in playoff games.

But this makes a lot of sense IMO.

As you get more and more parity, outcomes of games come down to fewer and fewer plays. If the Bucs go play some HS team, they're going to kill them because they are going to destroy them on every play.

But if you clone the Bucs and they play themselves there is no skill advantage. So it comes down to a few plays.

Some people will call it "clutch". But I think that "clutch" is mostly just chance / luck at important times.

And guys who are very good end up flipping more heads than guys that aren't good. So they look like the perform better in the "clutch".

I think the flip side of this argument is a paper on golf. I think they looked at puts for birdie and par and controlled for distance from the pin. IIRC, they found that pro golfers were worse putting for birdie from the same distances vs. when they were putting for par. I think that suggests that there is some effect of putting pressure on yourself / clutch.

Although I think the same paper suggests that the reason is loss aversion vs. internal pressure.

I think this is the right paper. But I didn't read through the full text to make sure it's the one I'm talking about (that I remember reading before) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=1419027

Interesting stuff. The article I referenced talked about the distinction from non-team sports like running a marathon. In these cases it is more about individual skill development and luck isn't really a factor. Seems to agree with what you are saying here.

["BuzzNuter"]

Luck is important if you don't eliminate all the other sources for losing. Look at Bill Belichek. I know he cheats but what about his players. They have always been able to think. They control themselves. How many times have you seen players mess up because they get mad or upset and stop thinking. Too much emotional action can lead to error. Belichek uses discipline or regimen in everything. Stress thinking and logical football reaction. That's how he gets the most from his players. Eliminate the things you can control and then luck is not so important.
I suppose there are other ways to do it. Draft great talent but that also involves luck. Support your players and be a players coach. We have that and how is that working. Belichek has a process that seems to work but it is difficult to implement in todays culture. He is a dinosaur.

[feltdizz]

Luck is important if you don't eliminate all the other sources for losing. Look at Bill Belichek. I know he cheats but what about his players. They have always been able to think. They control themselves. How many times have you seen players mess up because they get mad or upset and stop thinking. Too much emotional action can lead to error. Belichek uses discipline or regimen in everything. Stress thinking and logical football reaction. That's how he gets the most from his players. Eliminate the things you can control and then luck is not so important.
I suppose there are other ways to do it. Draft great talent but that also involves luck. Support your players and be a players coach. We have that and how is that working. Belichek has a process that seems to work but it is difficult to implement in todays culture. He is a dinosaur.

its hard to separate the cheating from the success.

["BuzzNuter"]

its hard to separate the cheating from the success.

I know but look at Tom Brady. Brady is highly disciplined and regimented. He gets that from being with Belichek. He brought that to the Bucs. Arians gets out of the way and let's Brady have at it. Belichek grew up on the Annapolis campus learning from his father. Drill, drill, drill and do it again. That is a philosophy that makes less talented players perform better than phyically gifted players.

That philosophy works in all fields of endeavor. It is to harsh for today's culture and physical gifts are valued more and a lack of discipline is overlooked.

[papillon]

Luck occurs when preparation meets opportunity --- Anonymous

Pappy

[SteelBucks]

I don’t believe in luck. Never have, never will. You or your opponent creates opportunities, good and bad.

[feltdizz]

I know but look at Tom Brady. Brady is highly disciplined and regimented. He gets that from being with Belichek. He brought that to the Bucs. Arians gets out of the way and let's Brady have at it. Belichek grew up on the Annapolis campus learning from his father. Drill, drill, drill and do it again. That is a philosophy that makes less talented players perform better than phyically gifted players.

That philosophy works in all fields of endeavor. It is to harsh for today's culture and physical gifts are valued more and a lack of discipline is overlooked.

I hear you but my brother also went to Annapolis and cheating wasn’t something they taught at the Naval Academy.

Not saying Bill isn’t a good HC but I have a hard time giving him credit when he has to use cheating to help with that “discipline”

Also waiting for Bill to do it without Brady to see who really is responsible for the success.

[NorthCoast]

I don’t believe in luck. Never have, never will. You or your opponent creates opportunities, good and bad.

Not always. Injuries are a luck factor. And they are uncontrollable unless you are suggesting intentionally injuring to create an opportunity. And that sounds Sean Paytonesque.

[Buzz]

Not always. Injuries are a luck factor. And they are uncontrollable unless you are suggesting intentionally injuring to create an opportunity. And that sounds Sean Paytonesque.

By and large, though, if you consistently prepare properly, remain disciplined, and are able to make adjustments, you're going to have a lot more success in the face of "bad luck" than the teams that are inconsistent in their preparation, discipline, and ability to adjust.

[Northern_Blitz]

Not always. Injuries are a luck factor. And they are uncontrollable unless you are suggesting intentionally injuring to create an opportunity. And that sounds Sean Paytonesque.

And sometimes the weight of the injuries can be crushing.

I think that's basically what happened on Sunday night. Too many injuries on D and not enough legit NFL players on that side of the ball.

It's happened to us in the playoffs on the offensive side of the ball too. When guys like Toddman or Tuissant are your leading rushers (I think they both were in different games, but not sure), that's not a good thing for your offense.

Even when we lost Ben, maybe we could have squeaked into the playoffs if we didn't have practice squad level guys at the skill positions. If there were more legit NFL players at those positions, maybe they could have lifted the QB play from near the bottom of the league to just below average.

[flippy]

Sure good luck always matters. It’s the source of everything. Did someone hit the generic lottery? Some just have better DNA. Some are just smarter. Some recover from injuries faster. Etc. Etc. Etc.

But there’s so many variables that go into football that luck to some degree is saying I don’t understand it so it must be God.

There are all sorts of stats and odd of success. And sometimes Mike T gets a gut feeling telling him to go all in when the odds are against him because it’s the only path he sees to victory. To me his boneheaded decisions support the luck theory.

But there’s so many other factors in building and coaching a team. How do you spend your salary cap? If it was equal across the board everyone would use the same numbers.

What is your game plan? How do you adjust? If it was all about luck we’d see the same game plan against the Steelers every week. But we don’t. Usually someone comes along and identifies and exploits a weakness that everyone else copies. Just think back when we were 11-0 last year. That was a house of cards that 11 teams couldn’t figure out. Then the blue print was created and we were toast.

Was it luck that someone figured out something 10 other teams couldn’t? And why do certain teams play us better than others if all talent and coaching are equal and it comes down to luck?

Often times, numbers will support 2 completely opposite stories. Numbers can always be manipulated to explain anything. Someone always does a better job of interpreting and ends up with an advantage as a result.

All that said, I’m a big believer in luck. But I think most of the luck happens long before guys even realize they want to play football. And I also believe you as an individual have to get lucky and bet on yourself in the right way to be successful. And then put in the work to make it happen.

The odds of anyone being Tom Brady again are pretty close to 0. So for anyone to end up better, it’s gonna take a lot of luck and a lot of hard work. And it probably still won’t work out cause that guy got so lucky.

[Northern_Blitz]

Sure good luck always matters. It’s the source of everything. Did someone hit the generic lottery? Some just have better DNA. Some are just smarter. Some recover from injuries faster. Etc. Etc. Etc.

But there’s so many variables that go into football that luck to some degree is saying I don’t understand it so it must be God.

There are all sorts of stats and odd of success. And sometimes Mike T gets a gut feeling telling him to go all in when the odds are against him because it’s the only path he sees to victory. To me his boneheaded decisions support the luck theory.

But there’s so many other factors in building and coaching a team. How do you spend your salary cap? If it was equal across the board everyone would use the same numbers.

What is your game plan? How do you adjust? If it was all about luck we’d see the same game plan against the Steelers every week. But we don’t. Usually someone comes along and identifies and exploits a weakness that everyone else copies. Just think back when we were 11-0 last year. That was a house of cards that 11 teams couldn’t figure out. Then the blue print was created and we were toast.

Was it luck that someone figured out something 10 other teams couldn’t? And why do certain teams play us better than others if all talent and coaching are equal and it comes down to luck?

Often times, numbers will support 2 completely opposite stories. Numbers can always be manipulated to explain anything. Someone always does a better job of interpreting and ends up with an advantage as a result.

All that said, I’m a big believer in luck. But I think most of the luck happens long before guys even realize they want to play football. And I also believe you as an individual have to get lucky and bet on yourself in the right way to be successful. And then put in the work to make it happen.

The odds of anyone being Tom Brady again are pretty close to 0. So for anyone to end up better, it’s gonna take a lot of luck and a lot of hard work. And it probably still won’t work out cause that guy got so lucky.

Luck matters a fair amount.

When Cam tips a ball at the LoS, that's skill.

But there's a lot of chance for how it bounces up off his hand (and eventually other-Cam can grab it).

Or how the ball bounces after the punt block. Does it bounce through the endzone for a safety? Or does it bounce out of play near the goal line? Or does it bounce right up into a guy's hands as he's running toward it so he can carry on into the end zone.

There's some level of chance involved when Ben fumbles the ball but it bounces back to him instead of an opponent.

None of this means that preparation doesn't matter. Or that the most prepared / skillful guys are the ones that are more likely to be able to capitalize on the opportunities that chance presents.

But chance matters. It's a big part of the reason that single elimination playoff tournaments are exciting. It's not fun if the favorite wins all the time (which is why I like single elimination tournaments better than 7 game series).

And that's just playing of the game (vs. the injuries). How many times had Dupree done a similar thing that he did last season before tearing up his knee? Every time you do a move like that, you throw the dice. Usually it comes up "doesn't need surgery". How many times had Shazier made a tackle like the one that temporarily paralyzed him and ended his career?

[Steel Maniac]

Luck is important if you don't eliminate all the other sources for losing. Look at Bill Belichek. I know he cheats but what about his players. They have always been able to think. They control themselves. How many times have you seen players mess up because they get mad or upset and stop thinking. Too much emotional action can lead to error. Belichek uses discipline or regimen in everything. Stress thinking and logical football reaction. That's how he gets the most from his players. Eliminate the things you can control and then luck is not so important.
I suppose there are other ways to do it. Draft great talent but that also involves luck. Support your players and be a players coach. We have that and how is that working. Belichek has a process that seems to work but it is difficult to implement in todays culture. He is a dinosaur.

A dinosaur who is back in first place in his division. Unfortunately