BIG BEN and TOMLIN

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  • Northern_Blitz
    Legend
    • Dec 2008
    • 24382

    #31
    Originally posted by Steel Maniac
    Sorry NB but you are saying things I’ve never said.

    Your exaggerating in an effort to try to make everything look like a hate situation.

    Tomlin has had over a decade to hire HIS coaches… draft HIS players. And what has he accomplished in the playoffs?

    You can try and belittle as much as you want but the numbers since 2010 don’t lie.

    Do me a favor ; talk about the last 11 years exclusively.

    The reason I don’t have long conversations is because you guys refuse to talk about the lack of playoff success the last 11 years.

    Until you guys grow up, and stop only talking pre 2010 playoffs , then maybe one day there can be dialog.

    But the bottom line is my sig; it’s to the point and for the last 11 years , it’s accurate.
    I'm not a fan of cherry picking data so I like to look at the whole.

    We've covered this before, but you aren't even good at picking cherry picked timeframes (answers in black if you want to highlight them):

    When was the last time we went to the AFCC? Was that in the last 11 years? Jan 22, 2017. Yes.
    When was the last time we went to the SB? Was that in the last 11 years? Feb 6 2011, yes.

    It seems like you write things based on how you feel vs. trying to find the truth / facts and forming an opinion.

    Here's a couple of other things to think about, if you're interested in truth / facts:

    In playoff losses in your cherry picked timeline, can you think of any critical players that were injured and who replaced them? Do you think that had a significant effect on the talent level of the team that was on the field? Or were they still "stacked" as some posters put it?

    How many turnovers did we have in playoff losses in the last 11 years?

    How many times did we get better play at the QB position in those losses than our opponent (despite the fact that our QB has a significantly better resumee than many of the QBs we've lost against)? I posted the stats for Ben vs. Tebow upthread. It's not what you'd expect before the game.

    What is the turnover ratio in those games? Did the opposing defense score points (because that's pretty close to a guaranteed loss)?

    Just for the last question, here are the turnover numbers per PFF for our playoff losses in your cherry picked timeline (https://www.pro-football-reference.c...t/playoffs.htm):
    1. -5 (with a DTD)
    2. -2 (with a DTD)
    3. -2
    4. -1
    5. -2
    6. 0!
    7. -3


    From: https://www.footballperspective.com/...rnover-battle/
    As it turns out, the importance of winning the turnover battle has been remarkably static throughout NFL history.
    Last year, teams that won the turnover battle won 78% of their games. And from 2007 to 2016, teams that won the turnover battle won 78% of their games.<NB edit: I'd imagine that the rate gets worse the more you lose the ratio by and we're -2 or worse in most of those playoff games> In the decade of the ’70s, when turnover rates were much higher, teams that won the turnover battle won 78% of their games. From 1950 to 2016, the average winning percentage of teams that won the turnover battle was 78%, too. Take a look:




    Seems pretty clear to me that the main reason we've lost in the playoffs over your cherry picked timeline (which includes an AFCC and SB loss) is turnovers. You don't need a super high level of understanding in football to understand that turnovers lead to losses.

    We're a combined -15 in those 7 games, never won the turnover battle, and only tied it once.

    And we were only -1 once. In 5 of the 7 games were were -2 or more.

    In the most recent games, we also allowed the defense to score on those turnovers, which makes that win% ever lower.


    And finally, why do you think that players are more important than coaching when we were winning SBs (i.e. Cowher's players) but that coaches are more important than players when we've struggled in the playoffs? I think the logically consistent posters tend to go one way or the other. For example, I think that Ben and the players get more credit for the playoff success than Tomlin. Just like I think they get more of the blame. Because I think that "coaches can lead the players to water but can't make them drink".
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 11-23-2021, 10:14 AM.

    Comment

    • Northern_Blitz
      Legend
      • Dec 2008
      • 24382

      #32
      Originally posted by feltdizz
      ...
      You just get upset anytime someone points to the AFCCG in 2016. Just because it wasn’t a SB doesn’t mean it wasn’t a successful season with postseason success.
      ...
      We've also been to a SB in his 11 year timeframe (Feb 6, 2011 + 11 years = Feb 6 2022).

      But he doesn't bother with petty things like checking dates.

      Although it will fall out of the time frame soon if he keeps it at "the last 11 years" (so the time frame moves) instead of saying something like "since late 2010" (so it stays static with some meaningful event as the initial point).

      What I think he means is "since we last went to the SB". And the reason for that seems to be cherry picking IMO.

      He implies that the timeframe is based on "Cowher's players and coaches leaving", so I assume that the initial time should remain the same. But it will probably change after he realizes that it includes a SB.
      Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 11-23-2021, 10:15 AM.

      Comment

      • Northern_Blitz
        Legend
        • Dec 2008
        • 24382

        #33
        Originally posted by Steel Maniac
        Sorry NB but you are saying things I’ve never said.
        Can you please clarify what you think I'm saying that you never said?

        I don't want to misrepresent what you're saying because I'd prefer to have an honest conversation about this.

        Comment

        • Eich
          Legend
          • Jul 2010
          • 7079

          #34
          Last 11 SEASONS:

          2020 12-4 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
          2019 8-8 Missed Playoffs
          2018 9-6-1 Missed Playoffs
          2017 13-3 Lost Divisional Round (Won 0 Rounds)
          2016 11-5 Lost Conference Championship (Won 2 Rounds)
          2015 10-6 Lost Divisional Round (Won 1 Round)
          2014 11-5 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
          2013 8-8 Missed Playoffs
          2012 8-8 Missed Playoffs
          2011 12-4 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
          2010 12-4 Lost Super Bowl (Won 2 Rounds)
          Last edited by Eich; 11-23-2021, 10:23 AM.

          Comment

          • feltdizz
            Legend
            • May 2008
            • 27568

            #35
            Originally posted by Eich
            Las 11 SEASONS:

            2020 12-4 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
            2019 8-8 Missed Playoffs
            2018 9-6-1 Missed Playoffs
            2017 13-3 Lost Divisional Round (Won 0 Rounds)
            2016 11-5 Lost Conference Championship (Won 2 Rounds)
            2015 10-6 Lost Divisional Round (Won 1 Round)
            2014 11-5 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
            2013 8-8 Missed Playoffs
            2012 8-8 Missed Playoffs
            2011 12-4 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
            2010 12-4 Lost Super Bowl (Won 2 Rounds)
            the problem with this evidence is Steel Maniac is bad at math.

            I’m sure he wants you to start the season AFTER the SB because there is no way he wants to include that in his agenda.

            its time based.. lol
            Steelers 27
            Rats 16

            Comment

            • KYPITTFAN
              Backup
              • Sep 2015
              • 389

              #36
              Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
              1st: When was the last time we went to the AFCC? Was it in the last 11 years?

              2nd: "Cowher's players" still haven't left though, right?

              Or is Ben not one of Cowher's players now?

              Maybe turnovers or poor play from "Cowher's player" (who he didn't want) contributed to some of those playoff losses?

              Like the time when Tim Tebow had a much better day than "Cowher's player"?

              As a reminder: Tebow had more yards, more passing TDs, fewer picks, more rushing yards, more rushing TDs...and a higher QB Rating by ~50 points (125.6 vs 75.9).

              This isn't to argue that Tebow is better than Ben (he's obviously not). It's to try to show you how silly these kinds of arguments are.

              Because you can't say that the players are more important than the coaching when they win (Cowher's players), but the coaching is more important than the players when they lose (Tomlin is responsible for everything bad ever). Well, you can...it's just logically inconsistent.
              Taking a 15 yard pass 80 yards on the first play of overtime will tend to make you look better than the other teams QB.

              Comment

              • Eich
                Legend
                • Jul 2010
                • 7079

                #37
                Originally posted by feltdizz
                the problem with this evidence is Steel Maniac is bad at math.

                I’m sure he wants you to start the season AFTER the SB because there is no way he wants to include that in his agenda.

                its time based.. lol
                The whole "Cowher's players/coaches" argument is just ridiculous. And I'm as frustrated as anyone that we haven't made much noise in the playoffs for while. But it's not like we've done nothing the past 11 seasons.

                This season had the potential for something special if everyone stayed healthy. The team we fielded week 1 can compete with anyone. But we don't have the depth on D to deal with the injuries.

                Comment

                • KYPITTFAN
                  Backup
                  • Sep 2015
                  • 389

                  #38
                  Originally posted by Eich
                  Last 11 SEASONS:

                  2020 12-4 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
                  2019 8-8 Missed Playoffs
                  2018 9-6-1 Missed Playoffs
                  2017 13-3 Lost Divisional Round (Won 0 Rounds)
                  2016 11-5 Lost Conference Championship (Won 2 Rounds)
                  2015 10-6 Lost Divisional Round (Won 1 Round)
                  2014 11-5 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
                  2013 8-8 Missed Playoffs
                  2012 8-8 Missed Playoffs
                  2011 12-4 Lost Wild Card Round (Won 0 Rounds)
                  2010 12-4 Lost Super Bowl (Won 2 Rounds)
                  But heck Tomlin has lots of in season wins.

                  Comment

                  • feltdizz
                    Legend
                    • May 2008
                    • 27568

                    #39
                    Originally posted by KYPITTFAN
                    But heck Tomlin has lots of in season wins.
                    Have to win in the regular season to make the playoffs.
                    Steelers 27
                    Rats 16

                    Comment

                    • hawaiiansteel
                      Legend
                      • May 2008
                      • 35649

                      #40
                      Originally posted by feltdizz
                      the problem with this evidence is Steel Maniac is bad at math.

                      I’m sure he wants you to start the season AFTER the SB because there is no way he wants to include that in his agenda.

                      its time based.. lol
                      Steel Maniac's math is time based....lmao

                      Boom.....................

                      Comment

                      • feltdizz
                        Legend
                        • May 2008
                        • 27568

                        #41
                        Originally posted by hawaiiansteel
                        Steel Maniac's math is time based....lmao

                        Boom.....................
                        What IS time?

                        Time is merely a social construct.

                        Is 5 years to us really 5 years to Steel Maniac?

                        Apparently 11 years is actually 10 years based on his math..

                        but what IS math?

                        Isn’t math a social construct as well?
                        Steelers 27
                        Rats 16

                        Comment

                        • brothervad
                          Pro Bowler
                          • Dec 2008
                          • 1919

                          #42
                          I tend to avoid the Tomlin thing, but inevitably it always comes back to it.

                          It's really quite unfortunate. I have my problems with Coach Tomlin...lot's of them but I don't dismiss his good qualities...lots of them as well.

                          This notion of Cowher's players, Tomlin's players is really just a bit myopic. They were Tom Donahoe/Colbert and Cowher's players vs Colbert/Tomlin players. Frankly, the biggest reason Cowher/Tomlin both have had success is because someone overrode Cowher and took Big Ben. That would've been Cowher's decision. Because he was vetoed...he gets a big pass.

                          That said I loved Bill Cowher...but he also had numerous flaws as well.

                          I don't need to go through it all (there are plenty of you all on both sides to do that until the end of days)...

                          But Felt (only because of your signature line...not singling you out) and others are right...he ain't going anywhere. Unless he chooses. So you are free to complain about it and pump your chest when the 16-16 tie occurs when Tomlin's team underachievesand then stay silent when they thump the #1 seed 24-7 later in the season. You can find another team, or you can just enjoy the last days of Big Ben. (I hope they are but am a bit concerned - more on that in the future).

                          I will issue the warning now...this is not the same franchise that it was in the prior Rooneys (Art/Dan). They do not necessarily have the same wisdom. I state this because having is often not as satisfying as wanting.

                          Pitt Basketball under Dixon was always a reliable tournament team...but they were never going to amount to anything more than a 1st/2nd round exit. Oh sure once in a blue moon he would get them to the sweet 16 but more often than not they would lose to a lower seeded team, often underachieving.

                          I once stated to my brother...they need to move on from him, they are not going to get any better. Well they decided to move on...and now they have had a string of horrible coaches. Even some that seemed like great hires at the time (Capel from Duke) has become a disaster.

                          Be careful of what you wish for...I have no crystal ball but, you all that don't like Tomlin criticize the front office and their ineptitude. What makes you think they have the capacity to make the right hire given that opinion?

                          Well I apologize as I have added absolutely nothing to this topic. And while I feel a bit like Switzerland (honestly if Tomlin stays fine/if he left I am not as fine, but I am not so enamored with him that the world would end).

                          I just don't see the point in spending the time in debating a coach that is not going anywhere.

                          Thanks in advance for reading,
                          Brothervad
                          Last edited by brothervad; 11-23-2021, 12:33 PM.

                          Comment

                          • Buzz
                            Legend
                            • Dec 2017
                            • 8408

                            #43
                            Originally posted by brothervad
                            I tend to avoid the Tomlin thing, but inevitably it always comes back to it.

                            It's really quite unfortunate. I have my problems with Coach Tomlin...lot's of them but I don't dismiss his good qualities...lots of them as well.

                            This notion of Cowher's players, Tomlin's players is really just a bit myopic. They were Tom Donahoe/Colbert and Cowher's players vs Colbert/Tomlin players. Frankly, the biggest reason Cowher/Tomlin both have had success is because someone overrode Cowher and took Big Ben. That would've been Cowher's decision. Because he was vetoed...he gets a big pass.

                            That said I loved Bill Cowher...but he also had numerous flaws as well.

                            I don't need to go through it all (there are plenty of you all on both sides to do that until the end of days)...

                            But Felt (only because of your signature line...not singling you out) and others are right...he ain't going anywhere. Unless he chooses. So you are free to complain about it and pump your chest when the 16-16 tie occurs when Tomlin's team underachievesand then stay silent when they thump the #1 seed 24-7 later in the season. You can find another team, or you can just enjoy the last days of Big Ben. (I hope they are but am a bit concerned - more on that in the future).

                            I will issue the warning now...this is not the same franchise that it was in the prior Rooneys (Art/Dan). They do not necessarily have the same wisdom. I state this because having is often not as satisfying as wanting.

                            Pitt Basketball under Dixon was always a reliable tournament team...but they were never going to amount to anything more than a 1st/2nd round exit. Oh sure once in a blue moon he would get them to the sweet 16 but more often than not they would lose to a lower seeded team, often underachieving.

                            I once stated to my brother...they need to move on from him, they are not going to get any better. Well they decided to move on...and now they have had a string of horrible coaches. Even some that seemed like great hires at the time (Capel from Duke) has become a disaster.

                            Be careful of what you wish for...I have no crystal ball but, you all that don't like Tomlin criticize the front office and their ineptitude. What makes you think they have the capacity to make the right hire given that opinion?

                            Well I apologize as I have added absolutely nothing to this topic. And while I feel a bit like Switzerland (honestly if Tomlin stays fine/if he left I am not as fine, but I am not so enamored with him that the world would end).

                            I just don't see the point in spending the time in debating a coach that is not going anywhere.

                            Thanks in advance for reading,
                            Brothervad
                            You're right, Tomlin is not going anywhere ... unless and until he chooses to. I wouldn't be too surprised, though, if he decides to leave right after Ben retires (assuming the Steelers don't sign a veteran franchise-type QB at that point). You know he could get a nice job in broadcasting in a minute.

                            Comment

                            • feltdizz
                              Legend
                              • May 2008
                              • 27568

                              #44
                              Originally posted by brothervad
                              I tend to avoid the Tomlin thing, but inevitably it always comes back to it.

                              It's really quite unfortunate. I have my problems with Coach Tomlin...lot's of them but I don't dismiss his good qualities...lots of them as well.

                              This notion of Cowher's players, Tomlin's players is really just a bit myopic. They were Tom Donahoe/Colbert and Cowher's players vs Colbert/Tomlin players. Frankly, the biggest reason Cowher/Tomlin both have had success is because someone overrode Cowher and took Big Ben. That would've been Cowher's decision. Because he was vetoed...he gets a big pass.

                              That said I loved Bill Cowher...but he also had numerous flaws as well.

                              I don't need to go through it all (there are plenty of you all on both sides to do that until the end of days)...

                              But Felt (only because of your signature line...not singling you out) and others are right...he ain't going anywhere. Unless he chooses. So you are free to complain about it and pump your chest when the 16-16 tie occurs when Tomlin's team underachievesand then stay silent when they thump the #1 seed 24-7 later in the season. You can find another team, or you can just enjoy the last days of Big Ben. (I hope they are but am a bit concerned - more on that in the future).

                              I will issue the warning now...this is not the same franchise that it was in the prior Rooneys (Art/Dan). They do not necessarily have the same wisdom. I state this because having is often not as satisfying as wanting.

                              Pitt Basketball under Dixon was always a reliable tournament team...but they were never going to amount to anything more than a 1st/2nd round exit. Oh sure once in a blue moon he would get them to the sweet 16 but more often than not they would lose to a lower seeded team, often underachieving.

                              I once stated to my brother...they need to move on from him, they are not going to get any better. Well they decided to move on...and now they have had a string of horrible coaches. Even some that seemed like great hires at the time (Capel from Duke) has become a disaster.

                              Be careful of what you wish for...I have no crystal ball but, you all that don't like Tomlin criticize the front office and their ineptitude. What makes you think they have the capacity to make the right hire given that opinion?

                              Well I apologize as I have added absolutely nothing to this topic. And while I feel a bit like Switzerland (honestly if Tomlin stays fine/if he left I am not as fine, but I am not so enamored with him that the world would end).

                              I just don't see the point in spending the time in debating a coach that is not going anywhere.

                              Thanks in advance for reading,
                              Brothervad
                              I’m a Tomlin supporter.. my sig is a dig
                              at a “time based” prediction that didn’t come true.
                              Steelers 27
                              Rats 16

                              Comment

                              • Northern_Blitz
                                Legend
                                • Dec 2008
                                • 24382

                                #45
                                Originally posted by KYPITTFAN
                                Taking a 15 yard pass 80 yards on the first play of overtime will tend to make you look better than the other teams QB.
                                I agree that players making plays is what makes for good games for those players. Or that other players missing plays makes for bad games for those players. That's a big part of why I think players are much more important than coaching (which is also still important).

                                And based on the turnover ratio above, I wish the important plays our guys were making in the playoffs were more about protecting the ball when we have it and taking it away when we don't.
                                Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 11-23-2021, 01:26 PM.

                                Comment

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