OT: Bills couldn’t get half a yard

[flippy]

You know when you said we ALL HAVE unconscious bias?

Tomlin acts on gut instinct?
Vrabel makes planned THOUGHT OUT decisions?

How in the world do you know this?

I don’t think it’s bias.

Tomlin talks about using his gut decision all the time.

And Vrabel gets credit for sending a 12th man out on D to force a penalty and stop the clock to save a time out. I have no reason not to assume Vrabel has learned from Bill B all the sneaky loopholes in the rule book and meticulously plans for situations.

I said I have no idea if this is fair and don’t watch enough Vrabel games to know for sure.

If I just went off bias, I would assume Vrabel is a dumb jock and Mike Tomlin is one of the foremost scholars in football. But Tomlin kinda tells on himself in situations that he’s really not a numbers guy.

Not that there’s anything wrong with either.

[BURGH86STEEL]

You know when you said we ALL HAVE unconscious bias?

Tomlin acts on gut instinct?
Vrabel makes planned THOUGHT OUT decisions?

How in the world do you know this?

At some point all coaches make decisions based on intuition or instincts. Sometimes coaches make the right decision and sometimes they make the incorrect decision.

I would had kicked the FG if I were the Bills last night. Those are the types of coaching decisions that costs teams the opportunity to win games.
Coaches that go for it on 4th down instead of taking points probably lose their teams games. I believe the Browns coaches made that mistake more than once vs the Cards.

[feltdizz]

I don’t think it’s bias.

Tomlin talks about using his gut decision all the time.

And Vrabel gets credit for sending a 12th man out on D to force a penalty and stop the clock to save a time out. I have no reason not to assume Vrabel has learned from Bill B all the sneaky loopholes in the rule book and meticulously plans for situations.

I said I have no idea if this is fair and don’t watch enough Vrabel games to know for sure.

If I just went off bias, I would assume Vrabel is a dumb jock and Mike Tomlin is one of the foremost scholars in football. But Tomlin kinda tells on himself in situations that he’s really not a numbers guy.

Not that there’s anything wrong with either.

I believe Vrabel and Tomlin both beleive they are giving their teams the best chance to win.

Fans were livid when they punted vs the Ravens on 4th and 2 with 10 minutes left in the playoffs.

Whether gut or analytics it doesn’t matter if you lose in the end.

I guess the question is how do fans feel when a coach makes the analytical decision and still lose. Does the loss feel better?

[Steel Maniac]

Bills are an offensively one dimensioned team. And eventually they catches up to a team. They can’t really run the ball.

[Northern_Blitz]

It's well known that Tomlin is not a believer in analytics. Maybe you don't need it to make time management decisions but it might help to confirm or deny his gut decisions.

btw, did anyone see the win probability for this game?... with 44 sec left BUF had a 52% chance to win; with 38 sec left BUF had a 54% chance to win

Basically a coin flip.

I think it's interesting because these models assume that all teams in the same situation have the same probability (based on the results of all other teams in similar situations).

I think that's how those models work anyway (i.e. aggregate past results from all teams and don't input any information about the current team).

But I don't think that's true.

For example, let's say that you have 0:01s left on the clock in the 4th after calling a time out. It's on the 1 yard line. Let's call it 4th down, even though it probably doesn't matter in this case.

I think the Titans have a higher win percentage in real life than the Steelers do in that situation.

[flippy]

I believe Vrabel and Tomlin both beleive they are giving their teams the best chance to win.

Fans were livid when they punted vs the Ravens on 4th and 2 with 10 minutes left in the playoffs.

Whether gut or analytics it doesn’t matter if you lose in the end.

I guess the question is how do fans feel when a coach makes the analytical decision and still lose. Does the loss feel better?

We’ll complain no matter what. More so if it doesn’t work out, but I’d say you would still hear complaints if/when the coach makes the suboptimal choice based on the odds even if it pays off.

We really can complain and nitpick anything. Some folks will then complain about the complainers. Its a big circular argument that never ends.

It’s all just gambling and trying to use the inside info you have to get a house advantage.

[Northern_Blitz]

Also...imagine how this board would erupt with criticism of the coaching for the decision to go for it there instead of kicking the FG to get to OT (after already knowing that it didn't work).

Because it's easy to criticize coin flip decisions after the fact when they don't work out in your favor. Just like it's easy to heap praise on a guy for making it after the fact. But decisions have to be made before you know the outcome.

At least we know we wouldn't have failed because the QB sneak didn't get enough yardage.

FWIW I think going for it or kicking for OT are both reasonable choices in that situation. Probably close to a push, but I guess conventional wisdom says go for it on the road and kick at home.

[flippy]

Also...imagine how this board would erupt with criticism of the coaching for the decision to go for it there instead of kicking the FG to get to OT (after already knowing that it didn't work).

Because it's easy to criticize coin flip decisions after the fact when they don't work out in your favor. Just like it's easy to heap praise on a guy for making it after the fact. But decisions have to be made before you know the outcome.

At least we know we wouldn't have failed because the QB sneak didn't get enough yardage.

FWIW I think going for it or kicking for OT are both reasonable choices in that situation. Probably close to a push, but I guess conventional wisdom says go for it on the road and kick at home.

Not sure if this is accurate, but my gut told me the Bills were playing to win in that situation so I’d be ok living with that outcome even if was safer to go for the tie.

[Northern_Blitz]

Not sure if this is accurate, but my gut told me the Bills were playing to win in that situation so I’d be ok living with that outcome even if was safer to go for the tie.

FWIW I think you'd be reasonable if we made a decision like that that failed as well.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Not sure if this is accurate, but my gut told me the Bills were playing to win in that situation so I’d be ok living with that outcome even if was safer to go for the tie.

I did not like the decision by the Bills in real time (even before the play) but I am guessing now that this is the thinking:

If the Titans get the ball first in OT then the Bills don't believe that they could hold Henry out. He gets better as the game goes on and wears down the D. If that is the case then it comes down to the 50-50 chance of winning a coin flip, they felt that if they lost the flip then they likely lose the game.

Still don't like the call but I guess I at least understand the logic.

[flippy]

FWIW I think you'd be reasonable if we made a decision like that that failed as well.

Not with Ben at QB. He’d fumble, fall awkward, get hurt, etc before he’d ever convert a sneak.

In Allen’s case, I think he converts 9 out of 10 times at least.

[Starlifter]

I was initially shocked they went for it, but really - with Allen’s history of success, the high percentage of time it works and the ability to end the game then as opposed to OT, it was the right call.

[feltdizz]

I was initially shocked they went for it, but really - with Allen’s history of success, the high percentage of time it works and the ability to end the game then as opposed to OT, it was the right call.

the right call is the one that works.. lol.

I heard Keyshawn and them on ESPN radio talking about the Bills being okay with not making it because they have the inside track to the 1st seed.

I think its way too early to talk about seeding and bye weeks and such.

[NJ-STEELER]

which is why they have so many 4th quarter comeback wins recently.

Have to give them credit for committing to the run even when down by more than 7 points in the second half.

Hopefully once this OL gels Najee will do the same thing for us.

you were complaining in the 1st qr of this last game why were they running Najee with the D having 8 men in the box

make up your damn mind

[NJ-STEELER]

Obviously if Tomlin did it would would have been a terrible decision.

For the simple fact that it was a decision that Tomlin made.
And Tomlin makes only terrible decisions.
And so this decision would then be terrible.

QED.

is ben the only QB that makes errors?

why is it discussed so much on this board?