Stat Predictions for Najee Harris

[Shawn]

So, I thought it would be fun to get some predictions for Najee Harris' rookie season. Only thing keeping me from being as bullish on his stats as I want to be is the OL. With that said, I predict a significant rookie season.

1400 yards rushing, 12 TDS 4.7 YPC receiving 500 yards, 57 catches 8.8 ypc and 4 TDs

I would love to read yours.

[Ernie]

We will certainly go far with those kinds of stats.

[feltdizz]

1100 rushing yards
400 receiving yards,
9 Rushing TD’s
3 Receiving TD’s

[Iron City Inc.]

So, I thought it would be fun to get some predictions for Najee Harris' rookie season. Only thing keeping me from being as bullish on his stats as I want to be is the OL. With that said, I predict a significant rookie season.

1400 yards rushing, 12 TDS 4.7 YPC receiving 500 yards, 57 catches 8.8 ypc and 4 TDs

I would love to read yours.

Good to see you start a thread. I'm not much of a prediction guy but I'll take my shot in this 17 game season.
Receiving I'll go with 1 catch per quarter so 4 a game would = 68 total receptions I'll go 64 as he'll likely have a game off somewhere along the way.
I'll go 8.0 yds per reception so receiving yds = 512
Rushing I could see him getting 15, 16, 17 carries per. Not sure how this OL will perform so I'll go with a 3.9 average. Comes to about 940 yds.
I'll go with 7 rushing TD's and 2 receiving TD's so 9 total touchdowns.
He can do that as a rookie behind a developing OL I'm good. Another really important factor is his pass blocking. He keeps 7 upright and that is a huge factor that may not be a sexy stat but is a huge factor in how valuable a back really is. Last stat is how many times he puts it on the ground. I'm optimistic here so I'll say only 2.

[Captain Lemming]

So, I thought it would be fun to get some predictions for Najee Harris' rookie season. Only thing keeping me from being as bullish on his stats as I want to be is the OL. With that said, I predict a significant rookie season.

1400 yards rushing, 12 TDS 4.7 YPC receiving 500 yards, 57 catches 8.8 ypc and 4 TDs

I would love to read yours.

If your prediction is correct, barring Bens game falling off a cliff, we will be legit SB contenders. I hope you are right.
Dizz, prediction I think is more likely, we are an easy playoff team.
Iron City? Also very possible, it means our oline has struggled, and we might be in trouble.

[Shawn]

If your prediction is correct, barring Bens game falling off a cliff, we will be legit SB contenders. I hope you are right.
Dizz, prediction I think is more likely, we are an easy playoff team.
Iron City? Also very possible, it means our oline has struggled, and we might be in trouble.

I agree that the OL gives me major pause. But, usually run blocking solidifies before the pass blocking. I think Harris is the most talented back I've seen since Barkley. So, if this OL can open some holes 1400 in a 17 game season shouldn't be an unreachable stat for a back this talented.

[Shawn]

1100 rushing yards
400 receiving yards,
9 Rushing TD’s
3 Receiving TD’s

1100 yards is very realistic if the OL isn't performing. I see Harris getting 280-300 carries this season and 1100 is 3.7 yards a carry. That would be pretty disappointing for a back this good.

[Shawn]

Good to see you start a thread. I'm not much of a prediction guy but I'll take my shot in this 17 game season.
Receiving I'll go with 1 catch per quarter so 4 a game would = 68 total receptions I'll go 64 as he'll likely have a game off somewhere along the way.
I'll go 8.0 yds per reception so receiving yds = 512
Rushing I could see him getting 15, 16, 17 carries per. Not sure how this OL will perform so I'll go with a 3.9 average. Comes to about 940 yds.
I'll go with 7 rushing TD's and 2 receiving TD's so 9 total touchdowns.
He can do that as a rookie behind a developing OL I'm good. Another really important factor is his pass blocking. He keeps 7 upright and that is a huge factor that may not be a sexy stat but is a huge factor in how valuable a back really is. Last stat is how many times he puts it on the ground. I'm optimistic here so I'll say only 2.

I think your stat prediction on his receiving stats is probably dead on. I believe the Steelers will try to get the ball in his hands early and often. He is fierce as a receiver...incredibly well rounded.

[feltdizz]

1100 yards is very realistic if the OL isn't performing. I see Harris getting 280-300 carries this season and 1100 is 3.7 yards a carry. That would be pretty disappointing for a back this good.

I think there will be a few games where Najee isn’t the focus due to being down early. Always happens once or twice a year where touches are limited due to the game plan being thrown out the window.

There will also be games where we burn clock late and he is simply RUTFM which tends to hurt your ypc.

…and of course we sit him the last game of the season after we lock up a playoff spot.

[Shawn]

I think there will be a few games where Najee isn’t the focus due to being down early. Always happens once or twice a year where touches are limited due to the game plan being thrown out the window.

There will also be games where we burn clock late and he is simply RUTFM which tends to hurt your ypc.

…and of course we sit him the last game of the season after we lock up a playoff spot.

Those are fair points. I especially like the last part.

[NorthCoast]

Only one RB in the top 10 in rushing yds started all 16 games last season; 8 out of the top 10 cleared 1,000 yds rushing. But many of these teams had very good OLs. I don't think Harris will crack 1000 rushing this season. I think IC has it pretty close with his prediction for rushing. But receiving is a little tougher to predict without any understanding of what Canada's offense will be. So I'll take the safe route and take the average of the top 10 rushers which is 280 yds. But since there is an extra game I'll add 20 yds for 300 yds receiving on the season.

[Chucktownsteeler]

850 rushing yards

350 receiving yards

5 Rushing TD’s

2 Receiving TD’s

[NorthCoast]

Only one RB in the top 10 in rushing yds started all 16 games last season; 8 out of the top 10 cleared 1,000 yds rushing. But many of these teams had very good OLs. I don't think Harris will crack 1000 rushing this season. I think IC has it pretty close with his prediction for rushing. But receiving is a little tougher to predict without any understanding of what Canada's offense will be. So I'll take the safe route and take the average of the top 10 rushers which is 280 yds. But since there is an extra game I'll add 20 yds for 300 yds receiving on the season.

Forgot to mention, this isn't a knock on Harris as much as my opinion on the OL which I think will end up average this year. Considering where they were last season that's a step up. So an above average RB + average OL = slightly above average stats. Gladly be wrong though...

[Ernie]

I think there will be a few games where Najee isn’t the focus due to being down early. Always happens once or twice a year where touches are limited due to the game plan being thrown out the window.

There will also be games where we burn clock late and he is simply RUTFM which tends to hurt your ypc.

…and of course we sit him the last game of the season after we lock up a playoff spot.

Agreed with the games where we get down. I can see us using snell/ballage, etc to grind out the clock at the end of games... taking some of the load off of harris.

[Steelerphile]

I don't think 1,400 yards is unrealistic for Harris. They are going to emphasize the run. They have made that much obvious and I don't think they will just give up trying and go to the short passes like they did last season. Harris is in outstanding physical condition. He is 230 lbs but that weight looks extremely solid. Lev Bell was a little soft in his first season and had to lose weight and condition himself for the subsequent years.

There is some concern about the Oline but I actually think the Oline will be better this season. DeCastro apparently couldn't play because of an ankle problem. Pouncey was running on fumes and was more reputation than probowler. With the hard coaching and the emphasis being placed on the run, they should have better success. I like Kendrick Green and they have added some interesting other pieces.

Harris should easily get 300 carries and I think he should be able to average at least 4.3 yards . That's 1,290 yards right there. So I'll predict 1,325 yards.