Looking at the last 3 years of Pgh drafts

[whisper]

1 Terrell Edmunds - I, and many others, thought he was a reach in the 1st, still do. 28
2 James Washington - Has shown flashes, still could break out.
3 Mason Rudolph - He turned out to be what most thought he would: a backup. Chukwuma Okorafor - Worthy of where he was taken.
5 Marcus Allen - Meh
Jaylen Samuels
7 Joshua Frazier

1 Devin Bush Jr. - season-ending injury not withstanding last year, seems like a real keeper.
2 Diontae Johnson - Seems on the verge of breaking out
3 Justin Layne 83 CB - Latest news somewhat concerning, this is make or break year.
4 Benny Snell Jr. - Been about what one would expect from a 4th rnd rb, I was hoping for more.
5 Zach Gentry - Project
6 Sutton Smith - I
6 Isaiah Buggs - A hit for when he was taken.
6 Ulysees Gilbert - Long shot ...and turned out to be. 7 Derwin Gray

2020
2 Chase Claypool - Seemingly nailed it.
3 Alex Highsmith - Not sure if he's a legit starter but showed flashes.
4 Anthony McFarland Jr. - Hasn't shown much of anything so far.
4 Kevin Dotson - A lot are high on him, we shall see.
6 Antoine Brooks Jr. - Another reach for a DB from VA/MD.
7 Carlos Davis


I'd give the last 3 years a B-. We need to do better.

[Buzz]

At least most of these guys are still on the team, and contributing to some degree.

But it would sure be nice to hit some real home runs with our first 3 or 4 picks this year

[feltdizz]

Not sure how Edmunds is a reach. He is a solid player who starts on the D.

A reach would have been benched or cut by now.

[Northern_Blitz]

Not sure how Edmunds is a reach. He is a solid player who starts on the D.

A reach would have been benched or cut by now.

The analysis NorthCoast recently put up showed that he probably was drafted too early, but only by 7 picks or so.

So I agree that we overdrafted him. But I don't think you can complain too much about a solid (yet unspectacular) pick at the end of the first. Not everyone is going to be TJ.

I think we're seeing a bit of anchoring on him. Lots of guys complained that he was massively over drafted (I think many said a 3rd - 4th round guy). NorthCoast's numbers (from somewhere, but I forget the source) suggest that evaluation is much further off than his selection in the end of the 1st.

This is part of the reason I don't like to get too into draft evaluations. I think it's way to easy to get sucked into confirmation bias on players before they ever put on an NFL uniform.

[Northern_Blitz]

Looking at these drafts this is what I see.

3 years ago (Probably something like average...maybe below?. 1 solid starter, 1 good backup WR):
- 1 Starter
- 1 good depth WR
- 1 moderate depth ILB / hybrid player
- 1 QB who doesn't seem like he's going to make it

2 Years Ago (would like more contributors, but looks like two above average starters. Good draft)
- 2 starters. Both look like above average players.
- 1 back up / short yardage RB (who maybe could have a good season behind a line that could run block?)

Last year (Looks excellent but too hard to tell)
- Multiple all-pro safety.
- 1 WR that looks like he can be a starter
- 1 Edge that will be a starter this year
- 1 interior OL that will be a starter this year

I think last year's draft looks pretty great. Especially since we used our 1st to get Minkah.
The year before that is good.
The year before that is probably something like average (to maybe below?)

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Not sure how Edmunds is a reach. He is a solid player who starts on the D.

A reach would have been benched or cut by now.

Call it what you want, he's a below average 1st round pick who starts for now because there is little depth behind him.

We could have had better at the same position later or better at many positions later.

Edmunds to you cover guys may be fast, but he's stiff, doesn't get his head turned around to defend the pass. and can't match up well vs TE's. He would very suspect without the pass rush he gets. Fitz next to him IMO makes him a just passable starter.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

1 Terrell Edmunds - I, and many others, thought he was a reach in the 1st, still do. 28
2 James Washington - Has shown flashes, still could break out.
3 Mason Rudolph - He turned out to be what most thought he would: a backup. Chukwuma Okorafor - Worthy of where he was taken.
5 Marcus Allen - Meh
Jaylen Samuels
7 Joshua Frazier

1 Devin Bush Jr. - season-ending injury not withstanding last year, seems like a real keeper.
2 Diontae Johnson - Seems on the verge of breaking out
3 Justin Layne 83 CB - Latest news somewhat concerning, this is make or break year.
4 Benny Snell Jr. - Been about what one would expect from a 4th rnd rb, I was hoping for more.
5 Zach Gentry - Project
6 Sutton Smith - I
6 Isaiah Buggs - A hit for when he was taken.
6 Ulysees Gilbert - Long shot ...and turned out to be. 7 Derwin Gray

2020
2 Chase Claypool - Seemingly nailed it.
3 Alex Highsmith - Not sure if he's a legit starter but showed flashes.
4 Anthony McFarland Jr. - Hasn't shown much of anything so far.
4 Kevin Dotson - A lot are high on him, we shall see.
6 Antoine Brooks Jr. - Another reach for a DB from VA/MD.
7 Carlos Davis


I'd give the last 3 years a B-. We need to do better.

2018 was a disaster. Sorry, we have perhaps the 2nd worstl starter on defense. A 4th WR, ( who does not return kicks ) and a back up QB 2nd or 3rd string guy. That's it. One starter here. C-

2019 is decent. Bush IMO was not worth the trade up but he's a keeper. Johnson is a solid slot guy. Snell and Buggs are back ups. Not bad but Bush better pan out C+

2020 is too early to grade. Claypool looks like a real keeper. Dotson a surprise starter, and Highsmith looks like a fine #2 OLB who's a plus defender vs the run. This draft has early production and potential.

2017 saved us. Picks 1-2-3 are very good.

[Chadman]

You have to factor in the amount of available starting spots for these players to take up, too.

Of the picks falling into the ‘you can’t miss’ rounds of 1-3, you have 5 of 8 players that start. And the other 3 are still on the roster, with one, as much as many hate it, the likely successor to Ben at this point.

The fact that 10 of the later round picks are still on the roster, 1 is starting, and 2-3 look likely to contribute, suggests that there actually was a pretty decent return out of the last 3 drafts.

[feltdizz]

Call it what you want, he's a below average 1st round pick who starts for now because there is little depth behind him.

We could have had better at the same position later or better at many positions later.

Edmunds to you cover guys may be fast, but he's stiff, doesn't get his head turned around to defend the pass. and can't match up well vs TE's. He would very suspect without the pass rush he gets. Fitz next to him IMO makes him a just passable starter.

just because you don’t like him doesn’t mean he is a temporary fix.

He has started since he was drafted.

[Ernie]

2018 was a disaster. Sorry, we have perhaps the 2nd worstl starter on defense. A 4th WR, ( who does not return kicks ) and a back up QB 2nd or 3rd string guy. That's it. One starter here. C-

2019 is decent. Bush IMO was not worth the trade up but he's a keeper. Johnson is a solid slot guy. Snell and Buggs are back ups. Not bad but Bush better pan out C+

2020 is too early to grade. Claypool looks like a real keeper. Dotson a surprise starter, and Highsmith looks like a fine #2 OLB who's a plus defender vs the run. This draft has early production ad potential B.

2017 saved us. Picks 1-2-3 are very good.

I wouldnt call 2018 a disaster. There are 3 starters from that class (Edmund's, Washington, and Chuks)...and Marcus Allen has progressed. I'd give it a C-

[Northern_Blitz]

Call it what you want, he's a below average 1st round pick who starts for now because there is little depth behind him.

We could have had better at the same position later or better at many positions later.

Edmunds to you cover guys may be fast, but he's stiff, doesn't get his head turned around to defend the pass. and can't match up well vs TE's. He would very suspect without the pass rush he gets. Fitz next to him IMO makes him a just passable starter.

Joel, what do you think is a good benchmark for (1) average and (2) above average success in a draft?

I think lots of guys who get super into prospects tend to rank drafts by "did they agree with my rankings".

But if we look at performance, what do you think success looks like?

And do you think that benchmark looks different for teams picking in the top 10 vs the bottom 10?

Also, why don't you count Fitzgerald in our draft last year? We acquired him with the 1st pick and he's already got 2x all pro nods with us (per Pro football reference).

Not trying to be a dick here. Just interested in how we can look at the data and come away feeling so different.

I think 1 good starter and some contributors is probably about average of your picking near the bottom. 2 good starters is probably above average. 3 means that you had a very good draft IMO.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

just because you don’t like him doesn’t mean he is a temporary fix.

He has started since he was drafted.

Nothing your wrote changes anything. Take me out of the equation. Plenty of 3rd party rating systems like PFF don't think highly of Edmunds. He's a give up the completion and tackle type of guy. He makes very few plays on the ball or big hits to force it loose. Is that your type pf safety? He also plays next to one of the best DB's in football and benefits from a great pass rush, yet puts up next to no splash plays in return.

[flippy]

Anything less that the 1974 draft is mediocre at best.

We have standards around here.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Joel, what do you think is a good benchmark for (1) average and (2) above average success in a draft?

I think lots of guys who get super into prospects tend to rank drafts by "did they agree with my rankings".

But if we look at performance, what do you think success looks like?

And do you think that benchmark looks different for teams picking in the top 10 vs the bottom 10?

Also, why don't you count Fitzgerald in our draft last year? We acquired him with the 1st pick and he's already got 2x all pro nods with us (per Pro football reference).

Not trying to be a dick here. Just interested in how we can look at the data and come away feeling so different.

I think 1 good starter and some contributors is probably about average of your picking near the bottom. 2 good starters is probably above average. 3 means that you had a very good draft IMO.

Well you have your key players like Watt and very good red chip players like Ju-Ju . That is a heck of a draft, plus Sutton we hope is a solid starter. 2017 was well above average more like very good and we got something out of Conner so you have to favor that in too.

Fitz wasn't a draft pick, but he was certainly a great trade! Wroth more than we could get with our first round pick and signed for cheap.

A decent draft to me produces 2 starters and 1 good role player. The value of the starters selected can turn a good draft to a very good draft. I'd give 2017 an A-

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I wouldnt call 2018 a disaster. There are 3 starters from that class (Edmund's, Washington, and Chuks)...and Marcus Allen has progressed. I'd give it a C-

I would. Washington does not start, and Chucks was a back up who started due to an injury of another player in front of him. We agree on the grade. C- drafts suck.