What if Justin Fields falls to 15?

[hawaiiansteel]

Yea we are. This years and next years first. Still have picks for oline and rb. Next year have extra picks and tons of cap space to fill voids.

which QB do you want to move up for?

[NorthCoast]

It was just reported that Justin Fields has Epilepsy. That may be why there's been talk of him dropping. He says he's managed it and it hasn't been an issue but that may be the reason.

I think NFL QBs are second only to presidential candidates on the amount of scrutiny they get from the media.

[Northern_Blitz]

Yea we are. This years and next years first. Still have picks for oline and rb. Next year have extra picks and tons of cap space to fill voids.

My understanding is that "next year's picks" are generally valued about a round later than this year's picks.

According to the drafttek chart (link below):

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

This year's first: (24) 740 points.
Next year's first: (~56) 340 points.

Total is 1080 points.

That's between pick 14. MIN (1100 points) and 15. NE (1050 points).

I get that charts aren't a perfect way to value picks, but this at least gives us an idea of the value of the draft capital you're talking about.

I think there is ~ 0% chance that the Pats trade us a pick if there is a QB on the board given their situation.

Would the Vikings trade out if there was a guy that could be a franchise QB at 14? I think they might. Cousins' contract is an albatros even though there are only 2 years left. If they cut him after the upcoming season (letting a rookie sit for a year), he still has a dead cap charge of $45M per OTC.

But how many competitive offers would there be for that pick in that case?

And will a potential franchise QB fall to 14? Gill Brandt has 4 QBs in the top 13 of his top 100 players. And I think it's always a safe bet that QBs will be over drafted.

But let's say no QBs were over drafted per that list at 14. You're maybe looking at the 5th or 6th best QB. According to that list, that's Jones (who he ranks 24) and Trask (who he ranks 92).

And we waste the first year of the rookie QB contract this year sitting behind Ben.

And play the second of 4 really cheap years with a hand behind our back because we keep stacking dead money into next year: ~$20M with Ben, Ebron, and Juju so far...with a cap that probably gets to $200M at best. That's more dead money than we have this year with Pouncey, Nelson, Williams, McDonald, Wisniewski, and Brooks.

I think we have to accept that there is a bad year coming. And putting it off this year probably means that it comes next year.

I think going for a QB this year is putting the cart well ahead of the horse.

[Steel Maniac]

My understanding is that "next year's picks" are generally valued about a round later than this year's picks.

According to the drafttek chart (link below):

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

This year's first: (24) 740 points.
Next year's first: (~56) 340 points.

Total is 1080 points.

That's between pick 14. MIN (1100 points) and 15. NE (1050 points).

I get that charts aren't a perfect way to value picks, but this at least gives us an idea of the value of the draft capital you're talking about.

I think there is ~ 0% chance that the Pats trade us a pick if there is a QB on the board given their situation.

Would the Vikings trade out if there was a guy that could be a franchise QB at 14? I think they might. Cousins' contract is an albatros even though there are only 2 years left. If they cut him after the upcoming season (letting a rookie sit for a year), he still has a dead cap charge of $45M per OTC.

But how many competitive offers would there be for that pick in that case?

And will a potential franchise QB fall to 14? Gill Brandt has 4 QBs in the top 13 of his top 100 players. And I think it's always a safe bet that QBs will be over drafted.

So if no QBs were over drafted per that list at 14, you're maybe looking at the 5th or 6th best QB. According to that list, that's Jones (who he ranks 24) and Trask (who he ranks 92).

And we waste the first year of the rookie QB contract this year sitting behind Ben. And play the second of 4 really cheap years with a hand behind our back because we keep stacking dead money into next year (~$20M with Ben, Ebron, and Juju so far...with a cap that probably gets to $200M at best. That's more dead money than we have this year with Pouncey, Nelson, Williams, McDonald, Wisniewski, and Brooks).

I think we have to accept that there is a bad year coming. And putting it off this year probably means that it comes next year.

I think going for a QB this year is putting the cart well ahead of the horse.

If we have a bad year , I’d hope to have a top five pick for us to get our franchise QB.

[Northern_Blitz]

If we have a bad year , I’d hope to have a top five pick for us to get our franchise QB.

This would be great for a rebuild. Bounce back quickly.

I don't think we'll be that bad though. The organization isn't dysfunctional enough. And I think the core of the D will be too good.

My guess is that we probably only get as bad as top 10ish if we play Haskins next year (and maybe Rudolph on a prove it deal?).

But if we got a pick at 10, we'd probably have a better shot at a QB if we stayed put. And our draft capital would be worth more if we tried to move up (hope for a bad year for a team with a young QB like Cincy had this year I guess?).

Then hopefully go into 2023 with a fairly clean cap, a good prospect at QB, and TJ+Minkah+Bush still in their primes. Use the room afforded by the rookie QB contract to grab UFA talent at important positions so the QB doesn't have to do it all himself.

I think that's what I'd tentatively shoot for at this point. But like all of these plans, it requires a lot more luck than we've needed for a long time when we were going into drafts where the GM could believably say "BPA except for QB".

[Steel Maniac]

Northern , I’d agree.

We should win at least 7 games so no top 5 but the way teams are going QB nuts , we wouldn’t be able to sit at ten and get our QB of the future.

[hawaiiansteel]

We should win at least 7 games so no top 5 but the way teams are going QB nuts , we wouldn’t be able to sit at ten and get our QB of the future.

and then we could trade ALMOST all of our draft picks next year to move up to #1 and pick Sam Howell.

[Northern_Blitz]

Northern , I’d agree.

We should win at least 7 games so no top 5 but the way teams are going QB nuts , we wouldn’t be able to sit at ten and get our QB of the future.

You never know...maybe they will be a really stupid team in front of us that picks a TE / SOLDIER.

Stranger things have happened.

Seriously though. This plan would require a fair amount of luck (like any plan to get a new QB). Maybe it leverages the fact that so many teams seem to be grabbing young QBs now. Maybe there will be fewer teams with an immediate need two years down the road?

Although betting on QBs not being over drafted isn't a great call.

Maybe we'd get "lucky" and the combination of Rudolph / Haskins would be really bad. Or that Haskins would prove to be OK.

[SteelBucks]

It was just reported that Justin Fields has Epilepsy. That may be why there's been talk of him dropping. He says he's managed it and it hasn't been an issue but that may be the reason.

Alan Fanaca has it and he turned out just fine.

Fields in the Black and Gold would be a dream. Never happen but I wish.

[papillon]

My understanding is that "next year's picks" are generally valued about a round later than this year's picks.

According to the drafttek chart (link below):

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

This year's first: (24) 740 points.
Next year's first: (~56) 340 points.

Total is 1080 points.

That's between pick 14. MIN (1100 points) and 15. NE (1050 points).

I get that charts aren't a perfect way to value picks, but this at least gives us an idea of the value of the draft capital you're talking about.

I think there is ~ 0% chance that the Pats trade us a pick if there is a QB on the board given their situation.

Would the Vikings trade out if there was a guy that could be a franchise QB at 14? I think they might. Cousins' contract is an albatros even though there are only 2 years left. If they cut him after the upcoming season (letting a rookie sit for a year), he still has a dead cap charge of $45M per OTC.

But how many competitive offers would there be for that pick in that case?

And will a potential franchise QB fall to 14? Gill Brandt has 4 QBs in the top 13 of his top 100 players. And I think it's always a safe bet that QBs will be over drafted.

But let's say no QBs were over drafted per that list at 14. You're maybe looking at the 5th or 6th best QB. According to that list, that's Jones (who he ranks 24) and Trask (who he ranks 92).

And we waste the first year of the rookie QB contract this year sitting behind Ben.

And play the second of 4 really cheap years with a hand behind our back because we keep stacking dead money into next year: ~$20M with Ben, Ebron, and Juju so far...with a cap that probably gets to $200M at best. That's more dead money than we have this year with Pouncey, Nelson, Williams, McDonald, Wisniewski, and Brooks.

I think we have to accept that there is a bad year coming. And putting it off this year probably means that it comes next year.

I think going for a QB this year is putting the cart well ahead of the horse.

I wonder who assigned next year's first round pick a value of 340? The 32nd pick is worth 590 on the 3 or 4 draft value websites I've visited. So, for me, that's the minimum I take for next year's first if I"m trading because that's the worst it could be. You trade your 1st round pick next year and win the super bowl so the team gets 1.32. Maybe, I'm missing something but that seems to be the logical way to assign the value.

Pappy

[hawaiiansteel]

I think NFL QBs are second only to presidential candidates on the amount of scrutiny they get from the media.

Alan Faneca was diagnosed with epilepsy at age 15, and he was able to control it with medication and go on to have a Hall of Fame career.

[Steel Maniac]

You never know...maybe they will be a really stupid team in front of us that picks a TE / SOLDIER.

Stranger things have happened.

Seriously though. This plan would require a fair amount of luck (like any plan to get a new QB). Maybe it leverages the fact that so many teams seem to be grabbing young QBs now. Maybe there will be fewer teams with an immediate need two years down the road?

Although betting on QBs not being over drafted isn't a great call.

Maybe we'd get "lucky" and the combination of Rudolph / Haskins would be really bad. Or that Haskins would prove to be OK.

Fingers crossed.

[Steel Maniac]

and then we could trade ALMOST all of our draft picks next year to move up to #1 and pick Sam Howell.

Hahaahahahhaahahah

[hawaiiansteel]

Hahaahahahhaahahah

yeah, I had to laugh also when you suggested we trade ALMOST all of our draft picks to move up to #1 for Trevor Lawrence.

you're such a genius

[Captain Lemming]

If we have a bad year , I’d hope to have a top five pick for us to get our franchise QB.

Ah...finally a legit reason to want Tomlin fired...cause aint no way you are getting that high a pick with Tomlin.
Maybe we hire Cowher back to drop us to 5 or 6 wins? Then we might get out next Ben!!!