Colbert's Draft Report Card Last 4 Yrs

[NorthCoast]

Nice work in the last four years... need to keep up the pace during the rebuild;

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

Looking at this, Pete Carroll has really blown it the last few years, noting all the high picks that didn't amount to much. No wonder Wilson wants to get outa town. And BAL breathing down our necks as usual.

The success of a draft pick is measured by the PFF WAR (wins above replacement) of the respective player over the first four years, as this is the time frame in which a drafted player yields surplus value due to his relatively cheap rookie contract.

[hawaiiansteel]

wow, Tombert sure did a great job of drafting these last 4 years!!!!

[feltdizz]

Nice work in the last four years... need to keep up the pace during the rebuild;

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

Looking at this, Pete Carroll has really blown it the last few years, noting all the high picks that didn't amount to much. No wonder Wilson wants to get outa town. And BAL breathing down our necks as usual.

The success of a draft pick is measured by the PFF WAR (wins above replacement) of the respective player over the first four years, as this is the time frame in which a drafted player yields surplus value due to his relatively cheap rookie contract.

not sure how to read this but no wonder the Pats cheat so much.. they are terrible at drafting.

[hawaiiansteel]

not sure how to read this but no wonder the Pats cheat so much.. they are terrible at drafting.

it becomes more obvious every day that Belicheat isn't such a genius after all.

[Northern_Blitz]

That's a pretty cool chart.

Hope that the draft success keeps going after Colbert hangs it up.

[whatever]

Amazing, all the talent that Colbert drafts and Tomlin can’t coach them to a post season win.

[Captain Lemming]

Amazing, all the talent that Colbert drafts and Tomlin can’t coach them to a post season win.

Wait, the "player personnel"/ GM gets all the credit for player acquisition?

That's what I've been telling you FOR YEARS.

There is no such thing as "Cowhers players" or Tomlin's players.

[hawaiiansteel]

Wait, the "player personnel"/ GM gets all the credit for player acquisition?

That's what I've been telling you FOR YEARS.

There is no such thing as "Cowhers players" or Tomlin's players.

exactly, they're all Colbert's players.

that pretty much shoots down that whole stupid "Tomlin can only win with Cowher's players" false narrative, doesn't it?

[Steel Maniac]

Amazing, all the talent that Colbert drafts and Tomlin can’t coach them to a post season win.

Tomlin has had a decade and more ; and can’t sniff a super bowl. Look at all that talent Colbert gave him. And still , 3 playoff win in 10 years. Damn shame.

[hawaiiansteel]

Tomlin has had a decade and more ; and can’t sniff a super bowl. Look at all that talent Colbert gave him. And still , 3 playoff win in 10 years. Damn shame.

[whatever]

New England’s poor drafting only solidifies that belicheck is the greatest ever.

[hawaiiansteel]

New England’s poor drafting only solidifies that belicheck is the greatest ever.

yup, he's definitely the greatest cheater ever!

[NorthCoast]

Pretty clear from some of the comments that some of yinz didn't bother to read the story. If you did you would have learned:

• While Colbert has been excellent the last 4 yrs, the previous 4 were not great. Came in 24th in the NFL. So all that 'great talent' drafted during Tomlin's years is not an accurate statement when compared to the rest of the NFL.
• While Belichick hasn't done well the last 4 yrs, he was excellent from 2011-2016.

When they try to answer the question 'is there a team that historically drafts better than all others?" it is a little deflating but not entirely unexpected.

I will post here:

Apart from the ups and downs in draft success for GMs, the overall point is that the teams' rankings can be explained entirely by chance. In the first chart, the Colts enjoyed an average percentile of 64. But if drafting were based on nothing else but luck and we could observe four consecutive drafts 10,000 times, the best team would fall into the 64th percentile roughly 25% of the time.

In other words, some team has to have the most success in the draft, and if drafting were entirely based on luck, we have a 25% chance to observe a team as good as the Colts over four years. This is not an implausible event.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Wait, the "player personnel"/ GM gets all the credit for player acquisition?

That's what I've been telling you FOR YEARS.

There is no such thing as "Cowhers players" or Tomlin's players.

I have to disagree some, a coach can mold his players. Tom Donahoe deserved mention as Colbert wasn't very tenured with Cowher. Donahoe did some fanatic work outside of round one. A Smith, H Ward. and J Porter for example 3rd to 4th round guys. . Players who didn't get off the bus killing it and needed lots of coaching to get to where they were.

[Steel Maniac]

Pretty clear from some of the comments that some of yinz didn't bother to read the story. If you did you would have learned:

• While Colbert has been excellent the last 4 yrs, the previous 4 were not great. Came in 24th in the NFL. So all that 'great talent' drafted during Tomlin's years is not an accurate statement when compared to the rest of the NFL.
• While Belichick hasn't done well the last 4 yrs, he was excellent from 2011-2016.

When they try to answer the question 'is there a team that historically drafts better than all others?" it is a little deflating but not entirely unexpected.

I will post here:

Apart from the ups and downs in draft success for GMs, the overall point is that the teams' rankings can be explained entirely by chance. In the first chart, the Colts enjoyed an average percentile of 64. But if drafting were based on nothing else but luck and we could observe four consecutive drafts 10,000 times, the best team would fall into the 64th percentile roughly 25% of the time.

In other words, some team has to have the most success in the draft, and if drafting were entirely based on luck, we have a 25% chance to observe a team as good as the Colts over four years. This is not an implausible event.

Northcoast, no GM is perfect in this league. All have flaws. But Colbert is one of the best... top 5 IMO. But what Joel is saying about when Donahue was in the mix is very true.