Salary Cap for next year?

[Northern_Blitz]

We've had a lot of talk about what we can do next year and who we might be able to bring in or whatever.

So I thought I'd look at this a bit and see what we can see.

UFA Info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-age...urgh-steelers/
Current 2021 Cap info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsbur...lers/cap/2021/

We currently have 33 players under contract for 2021 with a cap hit of ~ $201M (close to what the actual cap is this year, but way above the $175M floor for next season).

We also have 28 UFAs, many of whom are contributors: e.g. Bud ($16.6M), JuJu ($15.5M), AV, Hilton, Sutton ($7.2M), Conner (5.6M), Spillane and Williamson. I don't know their methodology, but I've included the spotrack's predicted market value for players where it's available (number in brackets). Surprised they don't have a number for Hilton, but I think he's more valuable than Sutton.

Even if we didn't resign any UFAs, we'd need to make some serious changes because bringing in 20 league minimum guys to get to a 53 man roster would cost us $12.2M.

If we assume that the cap stays the same (and doesn't dip to the floor), that would put is about $12.3M over the cap (just with min salary guys at ~ 600k/year). Worst case would be that it dips to $175M and we're >$37M over in that case. The team is clearly pretty bad if we replace contributors with mins everywhere.

Here are the guys who represent the biggest cap savings if cut. Remember that cutting them means they have to be replaced too. Note, I got cap savings as cap hit - dead cap, which I think is correct. I am also totally neglecting restructures and / or extensions because I don't really get how they work. I think restructures / extensions are more likely for middle aged guys with more time remaining on their contracts.

Player	Cap Savings	Do I think it will Happen
Ben	$19M	Didn't think so a month ago, now I say yes.
Hayden	$12.6M	Probably. Still good, but for how long. We won't be good next year anyway IMO
Decastro	$8.75M	I think we do something with him. Need to keep some OL and he should be good. Is he hurt?
Nelson	$8.25M	Would like to keep the younger of our starting corners if possible. I think maybe extension?
Pouncey	$8M	Need a new center IMO
Ebron	$6M	OK letting go, maybe want to keep one of the TEs though? Or go bargain hunting.
Tuitt	$5.7M	Keep if possible
Vance	$5.2M	OK letting go, maybe want to keep one of the TEs though? Or go bargain hunting.
Vince	$4M	Can we keep at low cost? Or maybe resign Spillane / Williamson for cheap? Listing as cut here.
Edmunds	$2M	Not an impact guy, but OK and savings isn't huge. Keep
D. Watt	$1.7M	Doesn't see much time, has been out a lot. Do we get a family discount? Cut.
Boswell	$1.4M	Keep
Washington	$1M	Keep

After that it's a bunch of other $1M or less savings, which don't make sense unless the player is really bad (since min is $600k).

I think the guts I have here are Ben, Haden, Pouncey, Ebron, Vance, Vince, and Derek Watt. That saves us ~ $58M (gets us down to $143M), but puts us at 26 players.

So we'd need to pick up 27 more guys to get a roster using $32M - $57M ($175M cap vs. $200M cap).

I think that's more aggressive than the Steelers will be, but who knows.

Notes: gold numbers were updated after TO pointed out a mistake. I'm still not sure about the Haden cap hit.

[Northern_Blitz]

From the UFA list, the guys I'd want are:
- Bud ($16.6)
- Juju ($15.5)
- Hilton ($9M?) want to keep at slot. Needed to guess a number on my own here. Random guess at something higher than Sutton.
- Sutton (7.2M)
- One of Spillane or Williamson or some other cheap ILB. Let's say $5M? Ideally we'd feel confident in UG3 here, but I don't think we do.

If those numbers are correct, it gets us to 32 players and a cap hit of $196.3M. We still would need 21 guys, including big money positions like LT (although Okorafor is actually listed as LT) and QB.

It also doesn't include the truck load of money we'll pay to Watt next season (I think it's next season), but maybe we can structure that so that the 1st year cap hit isn't crazy?

My guess is that we can't keep Bud or* JuJu here? Probably can't do Hilton and Sutton either?

Let's say that we don't keep Bud or JuJu and we bring back Sutton (I think that would get us to $155M for 29 guys...leaving $20 - $45M to sign 24 players)*.

What would the guys under contract look like (in no particular order)? Let me know if I forgot a position.

Depth chart:
QB: Mason
WR: Washington, Johnson, Claypool
TE: Gentry,
RB: Snell, McFarland, Samuels
FB: < >
LT: Okorafor
G: DeCastro, Dotson
C: < >
RT: < >

FS: Fitzpatrick
SS: Edmunds
CB: Nelson, Sutton, Layne, Pierre
OLB: Watt, Highsmith
ILB: Bush, UGIII, Spillane
DT: Buggs
DE: Heyward, Tuitt, Davis

LS: Canaday
K: Boswell
P:

Needs lots of OL. 2 QBs. 2 TEs, preferably 1 can start. WRs. Backup S. Back LBs. A DT (can we bring back TA on the cheap?). P.

Probably more stuff too.

Stuff in gold is updated after TO pointed out the math errors.

I also guess that all players would be required to take a pay cut if they do lower the cap to $175 so the UFA's don't shoulder all the pain. If so, we'd be closer to the higher number plus whatever we can free up from restructures, less whatever cap hit Watt gets.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Hey North, was just looking at this very thing. I had many of the same ideas for cuts. A couple of errors with the numbers though:

Haden is a $7M savings and your total savings are not $88M, closer to $50M. As far as the cap savings calculations go, you are correct. Another way to determine is by just adding up the base salary plus any bonuses that would be single season due this year, such as roster bonus, for guys who are going into the last year in 2021.

I am waiting to see how the season ends, but if what we have seen the last month is reflective of how the season ends then I agree that we talk to Ben about retiring and then clean house. I would add DD to your list, but not necessarily VW or Watt. Vince saves $4M as a starter and Watt might actually be used by the hopefully new OC. This house cleaning should allow you to re-sign FAs you might want to keep, allowing them to be football decisions, not strictly financial.

Chances are that the 2021 season would be a throwaway and a high first round pick to follow for your next franchise QB. 2021 draft should concentrate on OL, TE, replacement CB for Haden, and only if someone you love falls QB.

Remember though, I would only do this if this awful slide continues, and the Steelers are done in one.

We've had a lot of talk about what we can do next year and who we might be able to bring in or whatever.

So I thought I'd look at this a bit and see what we can see.

UFA Info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-age...urgh-steelers/
Current 2021 Cap info: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsbur...lers/cap/2021/

We currently have 33 players under contract for 2021 with a cap hit of ~ $201M (close to what the actual cap is this year, but way above the $175M floor for next season).

We also have 28 UFAs, many of whom are contributors: e.g. Bud ($16.6M), JuJu ($15.5M), AV, Hilton, Sutton ($7.2M), Conner (5.6M), Spillane and Williamson. I don't know their methodology, but I've included the spotrack's predicted market value for players where it's available (number in brackets). Surprised they don't have a number for Hilton, but I think he's more valuable than Sutton.

Even if we didn't resign any UFAs, we'd need to make some serious changes because bringing in 20 league minimum guys to get to a 53 man roster would cost us $12.2M.

If we assume that the cap stays the same (and doesn't dip to the floor), that would put is about $12.3M over the cap (just with min salary guys at ~ 600k/year). Worst case would be that it dips to $175M and we're >$37M over in that case. The team is clearly pretty bad if we replace contributors with mins everywhere.

Here are the guys who represent the biggest cap savings if cut. Remember that cutting them means they have to be replaced too. Note, I got cap savings as cap hit - dead cap, which I think is correct. I am also totally neglecting restructures and / or extensions because I don't really get how they work. I think restructures / extensions are more likely for middle aged guys with more time remaining on their contracts.

Player	Cap Savings	Do I think it will Happen
Ben	$19M	Didn't think so a month ago, now I say yes.
Hayden	$12.6M	Probably. Still good, but for how long. We won't be good next year anyway IMO
Decastro	$8.75M	I think we do something with him. Need to keep some OL and he should be good. Is he hurt?
Nelson	$8.25M	Would like to keep the younger of our starting corners if possible. I think maybe extension?
Pouncey	$8M	Need a new center IMO
Ebron	$6M	OK letting go, maybe want to keep one of the TEs though? Or go bargain hunting.
Tuitt	$5.7M	Keep if possible
Vance	$5.2M	OK letting go, maybe want to keep one of the TEs though? Or go bargain hunting.
Vince	$4M	Can we keep at low cost? Or maybe resign Spillane / Williamson for cheap? Listing as cut here.
Edmunds	$2M	Not an impact guy, but OK and savings isn't huge. Keep
D. Watt	$1.7M	Doesn't see much time, has been out a lot. Do we get a family discount? Cut.
Boswell	$1.4M	Keep
Washington	$1M	Keep

After that it's a bunch of other $1M or less savings, which don't make sense unless the player is really bad (since min is $600k).

I think the guts I have here are Ben, Haden, Pouncey, Ebron, Vance, Vince, and Derek Watt. That saves us ~ $88M (gets us down to $113M), but puts us at 26 players.

So we'd need to pick up 27 more guys to get a roster using $62M - $87M ($175M cap vs. $200M cap).

I think that's more aggressive than the Steelers will be, but who knows.

[Chucktownsteeler]

From the UFA list, the guys I'd want are:
- Bud ($16.6)
- Juju ($15.5)
- Hilton ($9M?) want to keep at slot. Needed to guess a number on my own here. Random guess at something higher than Sutton.
- Sutton (7.2M)
- One of Spillane or Williamson or some other cheap ILB. Let's say $5M? Ideally we'd feel confident in UG3 here, but I don't think we do.

If those numbers are correct, it gets us to 32 players and a cap hit of $166.3M. We still would need 21 guys, including big money positions like LT (although Okorafor is actually listed as LT) and QB.

It also doesn't include the truck load of money we'll pay to Watt next season (I think it's next season), but maybe we can structure that so that the 1st year cap hit isn't crazy?

My guess is that we can't keep Bud and JuJu here...maybe neither? Probably can't do Hilton and Sutton either?

Let's say that we don't keep Bud or JuJu and we bring back Sutton.

What would the guys under contract look like (in no particular order)? Let me know if I forgot a position.

Depth chart:
QB: Mason
WR: Washington, Johnson, Claypool
TE: Gentry,
RB: Snell, McFarland, Samuels
FB: < >
LT: Okorafor
G: DeCastro, Dotson
C: < >
RT: < >

FS: Fitzpatrick
SS: Edmunds
CB: Nelson, Sutton, Layne, Pierre
OLB: Watt, Highsmith
ILB: Bush, UGIII, Spillane
DT: Buggs
DE: Heyward, Tuitt, Davis

LS: Canaday
K: Boswell
P:

Needs lots of OL. 2 QBs. 2 TEs, preferably 1 can start. WRs. Backup S. Back LBs. A DT (can we bring back TA on the cheap?). P.

Probably more stuff too.

I would try and keep DuPree and Hilton. JJSS can walk, I have no love-loss for him. Ebron and McDonald as well. If we can keep Sutton good, but Hilton takes precedence. Pouncey can go as well as DD. I'm torn on AV but he'll probably retire, I suppose.

I wouldn't sacrifice the core of this team to keep a QB that at best has 1 or 2 mediocre years left. Even the Rats upgraded when they cut Flacco. These are hard decisions, no doubt but it is a business.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

so, i've seen teams a number of times convert salary to bonus, so that from a cap perspective the bonus can be spread across remaining years on the contract therefore lowering the current year's cap impact.

* wondering aloud *

is there some way to do the reverse of this (i.e., convert bonus to salary) to eliminate dead money...??

[Northern_Blitz]

Hey North, was just looking at this very thing. I had many of the same ideas for cuts. A couple of errors with the numbers though:

Haden is a $7M savings and your total savings are not $88M, closer to $50M. As far as the cap savings calculations go, you are correct. Another way to determine is by just adding up the base salary plus any bonuses that would be single season due this year, such as roster bonus, for guys who are going into the last year in 2021.

I am waiting to see how the season ends, but if what we have seen the last month is reflective of how the season ends then I agree that we talk to Ben about retiring and then clean house. I would add DD to your list, but not necessarily VW or Watt. Vince saves $4M as a starter and Watt might actually be used by the hopefully new OC. This house cleaning should allow you to re-sign FAs you might want to keep, allowing them to be football decisions, not strictly financial.

Chances are that the 2021 season would be a throwaway and a high first round pick to follow for your next franchise QB. 2021 draft should concentrate on OL, TE, replacement CB for Haden, and only if someone you love falls QB.

Remember though, I would only do this if this awful slide continues, and the Steelers are done in one.

Thanks TO. Great minds thing alike, I guess!

Not surprised that there's math errors here, thanks for the heads up.

The site I linked had Haden's cap hit at $15.5M and his dead money as $3M. I think that means that we'd save $12.5M if he gets cut. But maybe I got it wrong?

I certainly screwed up the addition which is ~$58M if I'm wright about Haden and ~$53M if you're right...I'll adjust this in the original posts.

So, definitely fewer of the UFAs to come back and more bargain bin / vet min guys coming in.

Edited to add: It looks like the difference we have re: Haden is about the prorated portion of the signing bonus. In the link I gave above, they list his dead cap hit as the "restructure bonus" only. But I think you're right that it should be the "restructure bonus" + "pro-rated SB". That would mean that the savings would only be his base salary ($7M). That makes sense to me, but maybe I'm missing something about how the restructure gets treated? I don't think there's any way to minus out the signing bonus portion here. And I don't think it's mislabeled as a roster bonus because he obviously got a signing bonus.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

So, definitely fewer of the UFAs to come back and more bargain bin / vet min guys coming in.

I agree. If the Steelers continue to look like this then it's the end of an era.

[Northern_Blitz]

I agree. If the Steelers continue to look like this then it's the end of an era.

I think this is basically the last real chance even if Ben bounces back.

I think we're going to be hurting for talent next year.

But we might end up being bad enough to get a really high draft pick (especially by our standards). Especially since the AFCN will probably be pretty good outside of us baring big injuries.

[flippy]

I think you try to keep as much of the D together and make another run.

I'd make signing TJ, Bud, Hilton, and Sutton my priorities and try to extend everyone else as best you can to keep the unit together.

This D + some offensive weapons makes Pittsburgh a potential great landing spot for a good enough QB that may be able to get us over the hump. I'd suggest if Cam has worn out his welcome in NE, he might be the kind of guy that Mike Tomlin could get something out of.

Cam's not super accurate, but he's got a strong arm and I think he might be able to hit it big deep from time to time with CC, JW, and DJ. I think he's got a lot of football left and he probably won't have a better option than Pittsburgh if we wanted him.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think you try to keep as much of the D together and make another run.

I'd make signing TJ, Bud, Hilton, and Sutton my priorities and try to extend everyone else as best you can to keep the unit together.

This D + some offensive weapons makes Pittsburgh a potential great landing spot for a good enough QB that may be able to get us over the hump. I'd suggest if Cam has worn out his welcome in NE, he might be the kind of guy that Mike Tomlin could get something out of.

Cam's not super accurate, but he's got a strong arm and I think he might be able to hit it big deep from time to time with CC, JW, and DJ. I think he's got a lot of football left and he probably won't have a better option than Pittsburgh if we wanted him.

Newton might be the kind of interesting low-cost gamble we could make if we cut Ben.

His contract this year is basically $1M, but BB probably had to go full Jedi mind trick on that one.

Still, if Cam's goal was to play himself into a better contract his play on the field did not do that. It was also kind of the perfect storm with guys available and Cam didn't have a chair when the music stopped.

So maybe he'd be up for another cheap prove it deal?

Jameis Winston should also be around for a very low value.

RG3 as well.

Not going to get a good QB, but all of those guys are on cheap deals ($1M or RG3 @ $2.5M).

We need to bring in competition with MR for who gets to drive the bus to a high 1st round pick and these are probably the kind of options we'll get.

I'd also like to keep as much of the D together as possible. I don't think we'll get Bud back, but hope we can do one of the corners. Maybe early picks at LB? But we'll need a lot of help at OL too.

[Northern_Blitz]

I would try and keep DuPree and Hilton. JJSS can walk, I have no love-loss for him. Ebron and McDonald as well. If we can keep Sutton good, but Hilton takes precedence. Pouncey can go as well as DD. I'm torn on AV but he'll probably retire, I suppose.

I wouldn't sacrifice the core of this team to keep a QB that at best has 1 or 2 mediocre years left. Even the Rats upgraded when they cut Flacco. These are hard decisions, no doubt but it is a business.

I agree with your ranking of the defensive UFAs. But I don't think we'll be able to afford Bud or Hilton, so I went with what I think will be the lowest cost of the top 3. Sutton can also play outside and I don't think Hilton can.

Wonder what Layne looks like in practice. The team would benefit a lot if he and UGIII can play.

[flippy]

I'd also like to keep as much of the D together as possible. I don't think we'll get Bud back, but hope we can do one of the corners. Maybe early picks at LB? But we'll need a lot of help at OL too.

Agree on the other points. I think we need to keep Bud somehow because he seems like a nucleus for us. Guys like TJ and Minkah are all biz and I think Bud's one of the few guys that really connects with both of them. I get the sense that Bud is the guy everyone genuinely likes.

If you get rid of him, Haden, Conner, and Juju, you lose a lot of chemistry on this team.

I also think you can't lose Hilton or Sutton. Hilton is a freakish LB / slot CB hybrid. And Sutton is on the verge of being a great cover corner. I almost wish there was a way to move Haden to S with Minkah and move Edmunds to ILB next to Bush. I think Haden's a good enough athlete to have another 5-6 years or more in him at S. But he's gonna eventually lose too much of a step at CB in the coming years.

[NorthCoast]

Bud will be out of reach. But I would keep Hilton over JJSS, or any offensive FA at this point.

[Northern_Blitz]

Bud will be out of reach. But I would keep Hilton over JJSS, or any offensive FA at this point.

I think we probably get rid of Juju too.

And I think that's unfortunate because he seems like a good WR to have for a rookie QB. Like a TE but better

[NorthCoast]

The offense pretty much needs rebuilt and that's going to be a multi-year project. The way they are being dominated on the OL is shocking, I think they should pass on skill position players for the most part until this is done. consistently struggling to gain 1 yd is the tell-all. It will be ugly for a few years but no way around it.