Steelers Season Hinges on this Guy

[NorthCoast]

As much as anything, including the HC, the Steelers season comes down to Roethlisberger. And this analysis from PFF is cause for concern:

He just missed a lot of throws. Our system, I think, unlocks [some things that numbers don’t]. You know, ‘here are some stats, here’s a PFF grade’, but the context behind it is important. He put up huge numbers in an okay grade because he just missed a ton of throws. He missed AB a lot. He made a lot of bad decisions. He had a lot of interception luck. But he’s still a guy that can make a ton of plays. He had one of the highest percentages of positively-graded throws as well. So he still has that in him, he still knows how to make plays, carry a team. He’s just got to cut down on some of the mistakes that he made last year, because he wasn’t making those in the previous years. But a missed throw here and there doesn’t always show up in the stats. It didn’t really last year. He’s still more than capable. He’s a top eight to 10 quarterback still in the NFL.

So while the stats looked great overall, the fact is Roethlisberger may not have been as efficient as he should have been. Hope he can make it through to his contract end because the Steelers would have a tough time pulling a HOF QB off the field.

[Iron City Inc.]

Well this isn't rocket science Ben is the team linchpin we all know that. The qb on any team is that and without very good play at that position no team is going to hoist the Lombardi.

For the Steelers in 2019 the positions where we'll need better play then in 18 to beat Luck ,Rivers, Mahomes and Brady are OLB opp Watt ,ilb (mack & will), FS (whoever is playing single high) Davis was better in 18 but needs to get better still in coverage and last but perhaps most important corner opp Haden has to improve. Nelson may provide that but right now it's still to be seen. Hybrid position where M Allen will replace Burnett may give us a more physical player but his lack of experience well that could be an issue.
Our special team play could use a boost across the board. D Smith is not my favorite coach n that aspect of this team always seems to be average at best.
Camp is just about here once the banging starts I'll try to let you know what we are seeing good or bad.

[NorthCoast]

Part of the dialogue is whether the missed throws were on the QB or AB adlibbing.

[BURGH86STEEL]

Ben needs to cut down on the turnovers. The team can live with inaccurate throws at times. It's difficult to live with the turnovers.

[hawaiiansteel]

Ben needs to cut down on the turnovers. The team can live with inaccurate throws at times. It's difficult to live with the turnovers.

Ben's 16 interceptions last season can be directly attributed to his 675 passing attempts. a more balanced offense would definitely help Ben cut down on his turnovers imo.

["BuzzNuter"]

I believe Ben was forcing the ball to AB last year. This caused a lot of interceptions. AB and Ben were not in sync. I think AB's skills are diminishing. I know 15 TDs but AB knew he was going to take a back seat to JuJu. That was also part of his motivation to act like a fool. Ben will be great in 2019 book it. We have got to be able to pound the ball. That will help the passing game.

[Northern_Blitz]

As much as anything, including the HC, the Steelers season comes down to Roethlisberger. And this analysis from PFF is cause for concern:

He just missed a lot of throws. Our system, I think, unlocks [some things that numbers don’t]. You know, ‘here are some stats, here’s a PFF grade’, but the context behind it is important. He put up huge numbers in an okay grade because he just missed a ton of throws. He missed AB a lot. He made a lot of bad decisions. He had a lot of interception luck. But he’s still a guy that can make a ton of plays. He had one of the highest percentages of positively-graded throws as well. So he still has that in him, he still knows how to make plays, carry a team. He’s just got to cut down on some of the mistakes that he made last year, because he wasn’t making those in the previous years. But a missed throw here and there doesn’t always show up in the stats. It didn’t really last year. He’s still more than capable. He’s a top eight to 10 quarterback still in the NFL.

So while the stats looked great overall, the fact is Roethlisberger may not have been as efficient as he should have been. Hope he can make it through to his contract end because the Steelers would have a tough time pulling a HOF QB off the field.

I've been pretty worried about Ben declining since the beginning of last year when he was missing a bunch of deep throws to AB.

I wonder if that's why we went to such a short passing O.

I'm hoping that this was more of a bad luck + AB thing than a Ben thing.

We'll see more this year.

[Oh wow]

AB’s motivation was jealousy.

Jealous of JuJu
Jealous of Ben’s special treatment
Jealous of other WR’s making more money.

But this doesn’t mean Ben can continue to play turnover football. Especially on the road.

[RuthlessBurgher]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

[Northern_Blitz]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

Not nearly as sexy, but I agree about its importance

[DrCalculus]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

^ This ^ all day.

Just consider one game: The horrible loss to the Raiders. Boswell missed a 39 yarder and a 40 yarder. His previous accuracy from that distance was in the high 80 / low 90 percent range. He was just about automatic. He missed two. The team lost by 3. He makes both of those, as he normally would in previous years, they win. They finish 10-5-1 and make the playoffs.

It's always hard to say what would happen if a certain play went another way, because plays don't happen in a vacuum. But missed FG attempts are about as close as it gets. If he misses the kick, the opponent gets the ball back in their own territory, around 35 or so yard line depending on how long the attempt was. If he makes the kick, add three points and kick it off, but with the weak KO coverage this team has shown over the past few years, I'm not so certain that the field position would be substantially different -- maybe 5 or 10 yards at most. The only real differences are the lack of 3 points and the added demoralizing effect that would have on the defense.

I think as much as anyone he needs to get 2018 out of his head.

[NorthCoast]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

In the last 10 yrs, the Steelers have played in an average of 4.5 games a season in games decided by 3 pts or less. The last two season they have been in more close games than the 10 yr average. Here is their W-L record:

2009 3 - 5 (wow!, half the games decided by a FG)
2010 3 - 1
2011 1 - 1
2012 3 - 5 (another tight season)
2013 1 - 2
2014 2 - 2
2015 1 - 2
2016 1 - 0
2017 5 - 1
2018 2 - 3 - 1

Their avg W-L record in 3 pt games is 2.2 - 2.2 in the last 10 yrs, so the Steelers on average split close games. If their record centers around the norm, then 2017 was an aberration, and 2018 is close to their average outcome.

(Note I didn't look at games that had multiple missed FGs, which is another layer of analysis)

[Northern_Blitz]

In the last 10 yrs, the Steelers have played in an average of 4.5 games a season in games decided by 3 pts or less. The last two season they have been in more close games than the 10 yr average. Here is their W-L record:

2009 3 - 5 (wow!, half the games decided by a FG)
2010 3 - 1
2011 1 - 1
2012 3 - 5 (another tight season)
2013 1 - 2
2014 2 - 2
2015 1 - 2
2016 1 - 0
2017 5 - 1
2018 2 - 3 - 1

Their avg W-L record in 3 pt games is 2.2 - 2.2 in the last 10 yrs, so the Steelers on average split close games. If their record centers around the norm, then 2017 was an aberration, and 2018 is close to their average outcome.

(Note I didn't look at games that had multiple missed FGs, which is another layer of analysis)

It seems reasonable that having an elite RB and a kicker that isn't the 2nd worst in the league helps win close games.

[Oh wow]

The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

Definitely. When we discussed last season and people blamed Tomlin I was kind of shocked considering how bad Boswell was last year.

Some folks try to give Boswell a pass but the guy was terrible.

[rpmpit]

We need "4th quarter, 2 minutes left, down by 5" Ben and 2017 Boz for every game... all game... all season. We'll be unbeatable.