Steelers Dodged a Bullet....

[Northern_Blitz]

If RB's are truly a dime a dozen, do the Steelers just let James Conner walk after the 2020 season rather than paying him a market value deal once his rookie contract expires?

And if data shows that teams with elite wideouts don't tend to win Super Bowls, do the Steelers just let Juju Smith-Schuster walk after the 2020 season rather than paying him a market value deal once his rookie contract expires?

Just curious...

I think the answer is no. Or maybe to qualify it, not if they can get them on under market contracts.

I think you win in a salary cap league by paying guys less than market value.

I think you can usually get guys below market on their 2nd contract by doing it a year early so they take the security of the siging bonus over the uncertainty of getting hurt before signing a big deal.

Decisions would also be contingent on how Juju does as WR1 and if JC can stay healthy.

I'd like to see actual numbers, but I guess non-QBs regularly undwrperform their 3rd contracts because teams often have to pay market value (or pretty close) then. Most players probably also start to decline then

[Steelerphile]

If RB's are truly a dime a dozen, do the Steelers just let James Conner walk after the 2020 season rather than paying him a market value deal once his rookie contract expires?

And if data shows that teams with elite wideouts don't tend to win Super Bowls, do the Steelers just let Juju Smith-Schuster walk after the 2020 season rather than paying him a market value deal once his rookie contract expires?

Just curious...

A fair market deal for RBs was not inclusive of $35 million or more in guaranteed money until Gurley and Bell obtained it. I don't think Conner will demand a $35 million guarantee, nor do I think that will become the market value for RBs.

So depending what the market value is, I think they would probably try to keep Conner if he is healthy, but I don't think he would demand anywhere near Bell's contract.

[Oh wow]

Still talking about Bell in here.

Well, I think the Steelers offer didn’t have the guarantees because they didn’t want to be locked in long term. Folks use the Shazier injury as proof we are fair but that’s always been an insensitive example to use. All one has to do is look at Gilbert to see our FO will promise a contract and then change their mind when it’s time to deliver. It’s a business.

Bell was smart to get more guaranteed money up front to protect himself. Can’t fault either party.

Do the Rams regret their contract with Gurley? It’s real early and we have no idea how this goes for the rest of his career.

[Oh wow]

When Bell scores 20+ TDs in a season, then we can talk about him like he's as talented as Gurley.

Bell's only had more that 10 TDs 2 times. And both were 11 TD seasons.

Heck even James Conner had 13 in his first season despite not even playing in 16 games.

Bell is talented and fun to watch, but not an elite RB. And I'm in agreement that the position is one of the dime a dozen positions.

and we missed the playoffs.

I don’t give a damn about TD totals. That’s not a true indicator of a players value. Especially when we had weapons like AB, Sanders, Wallace, Heath and Bryant for the the first few years of Bells career.

I think yards from scrimmage is the best indicator and Bell is still at the top of that stat.

[Northern_Blitz]

Still talking about Bell in here.

Well, I think the Steelers offer didn’t have the guarantees because they didn’t want to be locked in long term. Folks use the Shazier injury as proof we are fair but that’s always been an insensitive example to use. All one has to do is look at Gilbert to see our FO will promise a contract and then change their mind when it’s time to deliver. It’s a business.

Bell was smart to get more guaranteed money up front to protect himself. Can’t fault either party.

Do the Rams regret their contract with Gurley? It’s real early and we have no idea how this goes for the rest of his career.

I wonder if he did get more guaranteed money.

I don't believe they used the same definition of guaranteed when they compared the two contracts publically.

Either way, Bell should have more money than he can reasonably spend. 8 don't begrudge him wanting to get market value.

It was just a business decision on both sides.

[NorthCoast]

If RB's are truly a dime a dozen, do the Steelers just let James Conner walk after the 2020 season rather than paying him a market value deal once his rookie contract expires?

And if data shows that teams with elite wideouts don't tend to win Super Bowls, do the Steelers just let Juju Smith-Schuster walk after the 2020 season rather than paying him a market value deal once his rookie contract expires?

Just curious...

I think you already have the answer. Did the Steelers let AB walk after his rookie deal?

The Steelers set a number they believe represents that player's value and stick to it. So if a player is trying to reset the market, they are probably not going to get a deal with them.
I agree with NB, teams that have market leading deals are teams that are desperate to win. When was the last time NE had a blockbuster deal for a player. More often than not they let a player go beforethey have to pay him.

[Oh wow]

I wonder if he did get more guaranteed money.

I don't believe they used the same definition of guaranteed when they compared the two contracts publically.

Either way, Bell should have more money than he can reasonably spend. 8 don't begrudge him wanting to get market value.

It was just a business decision on both sides.

I believe the Steelers contract had guaranteed contingencies which would’ve made it easier to dump him without paying him if he was injured.

[Northern_Blitz]

I believe the Steelers contract had guaranteed contingencies which would’ve made it easier to dump him without paying him if he was injured.

My guess is that his current contract has similar things.

For example, they apparently didn't count "roster bonuses" as guaranteed money for the Steelers deal. Makes sense because they were trying to maximize the fully guaranteed money in the contract.

But, did roster bonuses count as guaranteed money when they were trying to save face for signing a smaller deal with the Jets?

I don't know.

[Oh wow]

My guess is that his current contract has similar things.

For example, they apparently didn't count "roster bonuses" as guaranteed money for the Steelers deal. Makes sense because they were trying to maximize the fully guaranteed money in the contract.

But, did roster bonuses count as guaranteed money when they were trying to save face for signing a smaller deal with the Jets?

I don't know.

Not sure. But I know the Jets contract also had incentives where he can make up to 60 mill over 5 years.

Pretty sure when the Steelers used 70 mill they included all of his incentives. I doubt he could’ve made even more than the 70 they offered.

That’s the whole problem with these contracts. Players have been saying these numbers the team throw out are just for show.

Players rarely ever see all that money. Especially running backs.

Of course you are also going to have media in Pittsburgh who say he would’ve made more and media outside of Pittsburgh saying he made the right choice based on guaranteed money.

It’s a lot of money, especially for a RB.

Now we will see if he is worth it. I’m looking forward to seeing what he looks like after a year off.

[BURGH86STEEL]

This is true in the abstract, but very seldom happens in reality. Shazier, Priest Holmes, Stingley . . . I know there are others, but its very rare. What happens a bit more often is they miss a year (ACL tear, collarbone), but even that is relatively rare. It's also fully paid.

Bell was more concerned with getting the highest number for an RB (rapping about 17 or whatever). He failed miserably, and lost money he was guaranteed to have with the Steelers, if he had just signed the Steelers crazy offer that NO ONE else even came close to. Now, he languishes on the Jets and tubes what could have been a more lucrative career with a winning organization. He's a fool, no matter what way you analyze this.

Injuries happen every week in the NFL. Injuries reduce player effectiveness. As soon as players become less effective then..... I believe injuries shorten plenty of players' careers.

I didn't look at Bell as being a fool. Especially when considering the way organizations throw money around. I looked at it as Bell taking a risk on himself. At the end of the day Bell was paid a lot of money. Any way you look at it Bell was in a win win situation. He didn't win as much as he thought but he still won.

[Oh wow]

This is true in the abstract, but very seldom happens in reality. Shazier, Priest Holmes, Stingley . . . I know there are others, but its very rare. What happens a bit more often is they miss a year (ACL tear, collarbone), but even that is relatively rare. It's also fully paid.

Bell was more concerned with getting the highest number for an RB (rapping about 17 or whatever). He failed miserably, and lost money he was guaranteed to have with the Steelers, if he had just signed the Steelers crazy offer that NO ONE else even came close to. Now, he languishes on the Jets and tubes what could have been a more lucrative career with a winning organization. He's a fool, no matter what way you analyze this.

He didn’t fail miserably. Demanding 17 and getting 15 mill with incentives isn’t failing.

Hell, I wish I could fail that miserably.

I know the frustration is due to him not playing last year but overall he didn’t risk injury for a year and still signed for a ton of guaranteed money at the RB position.

[NorthCoast]

I don't know how many teams will take a lessons learned approach to signing these big guaranteed contracts, but I have to believe at least of few more teams will be added to the list of those reluctant to break the bank on a non-QB position.

Bell's best season he had over 1,300 yds rushing and >800 yds receiving. The Steelers lost in the wild card to BAL in 2014. In the last 15 yrs, Only two other RBs approached Bell's best season, Faulk in 2000 (STL lost in the wild card), and S Jackson, in 2006 when STL finished 8-8.


I think a return to balance is more important than a league leader in stats, and that goes for any position including QB.